I'm somewhat shopping... well... window shopping for a truck right now. Seems that everywhere I look there are three to five year old trucks that are still running 30-40k plus... Mind you this is in the half ton market.A few weeks ago I was offered a 2014 SuperCrew 2wd XLT with the 5.0, 3.31 rear axle ratio, IBC, and Sync... and my favorite color in the F150... blue...for 31k OTD... I wanted to think about it because I really want at least a 3.55 rear axle ratio. HAD 16 MILES ON ITAnyway.. stuck to my guns.. now was not the time for my new truck and I walked away. I looked at a comparable 2015 Chevy Silverado LT with the 5.3 and a crew cab...while not 31k OTD, I was offered around 34k before tax..Still not a terrible price. Just for kicks, I wanted to look at used trucks... On both the Chevy and the Ford Lot they had 3 year old trucks for more or the same money as the NEW trucks... I can't understand this...I went to CarMax just to see whats up... they had a two year old F150 with 40k miles... IDENTICAL to the one I was just offered for 31k OTD except it was 4x4... everything else was the same. Its price was $32,900. since then, I have been window shopping online for a few weeks now...2008 Tundras with under 50k miles are still 25-30k plus... Just a few grand off new SR5 Tundra's. I do not understand this phenomenon.. how are these USED trucks selling for the same money or MORE than the new trucks? I have a friend who buys trucks at Auction. He says that the prices are cRaZy on used trucks right now. Seems to me that there is a bubble on expensive used trucks...Have you all notices this as well or is it just regional around Tennessee?Thanks!Jeremiah

I'm no economist and haven't heard this anywhere outside of my own head but do have a theory:3-6 years ago the economy was pretty much in the dump and there were ZERO new vehicles selling (or being manufactured). It stands to reason there is now a shortage of late model used vehicles. The economy has picked up in many areas and now there is heavy demand but little supply - So, up go the prices.I'm very intrigued by the current used car market. I find it funny that all of the sudden there are gleaming franchises selling used vehicles (Car-Max for example). I for one think this business model is going to fall flat on its face once things "normalize" in the used car market. The supply/demand used car thing has always resulted in dimly lit lots in a crappy part of town moving vehicles. I just don't see the long term profitability in huge, clean showrooms with perky young ladies selling used cars.We'll see....

my last truck was an f 150 fx4 lariat 4x4 with 35k on it(that's kilometers,not miles). it was 2 years old.we paid 23k. the sticker when new was 42k plus tax/pdi and all that stuff.my ram was almost as good of a deal.

I was shopping for an '06-07 Duramax and, for the early '07s with the LBZ engine, was seeing prices in the mid to high 30's for < 100k mile trucks. I decided to rehab my '02 with only 92k on it instead. :-)Lyle

I just sold my 2500HD two weeks ago. The first family that responded to my Craigslist bought the truck (both husband and wife replied to ad). They had been looking for over a year. He said everything he had found was work trucks that had over 100k miles. He liked my LT leather with less than 50k on odometer. I had a great trade-in value, and listed for $1500 over that on CL. I settled for $1k. It sold for more than 90% of the price I paid 42 months earlier.

jerem0621 wrote:I do not understand this phenomenon.. how are these USED trucks selling for the same money or MORE than the new trucks? I have a friend who buys trucks at Auction. He says that the prices are cRaZy on used trucks right now. Seems to me that there is a bubble on expensive used trucks...Have you all notices this as well or is it just regional around Tennessee?JeremiahJeremiah, in central Texas, I didn't see any used trucks selling for more than new, but to mtofell1's point, with the economy doing better, maybe we are seeing the surge of folks buying new who had been waiting. With that, the surge in used vehicles, but priced higher than what we expect, due to the outrageous pricing of the new trucks.While saving for a new truck to better pull trailers, I had a search set up on CarMax to show 3/4 and 1-ton trucks with diesel in a 500 mi radius. I watched it for 3 or 4 months, not fully expecting to buy used, but simply "watching the market". Seeing the 2013 3500HD noted in my signature equipped exactly as I would want, good price and a good trade in offer on my 2009 C1500 with cash for the difference, it became an easy decision.

Is there a used truck bubble? | Good Sam Community

30 Replies

jerem0621
Explorer II
Jun 23, 2015
Thanks for the comments everyone. I use to exclusively buy used...but now the value with late model used just isn't there (as said above).

I do think that eventually the used car bubble will burst and the value that used cars and trucks have will come back...but now...let the buyer beware...really look at new prices and not just sticker.

Thanks!

Jeremiah
crcr
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
TakingThe5th wrote:
I think DEF also plays in to a degree on the diesels. Some folk simply don't like the idea. I have heard several people say they would prefer a bulletproof Ford 6.0 over the newer 6.7. That's quite a statement against DEF given the good reputation of the 6.7 but it speaks to people's preferences. Some felt the same way when they preferred the 7.3 engine, and there was a time when people didn't like the 7.3. People are funny with their trucks and that too impacts the price.

If I should trade up to a new or newer diesel truck, personally, I would prefer a vehicle with DEF. They get better mileage and it is my understanding that with a DEF system, regens are infrequent and not really an issue as they sometimes are with pre-DEF trucks.
crcr
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
Most of the time, new car dealers make a lot more money on used than on new vehicles, so they are more than happy to sell used vehicles. And as someone mentioned, many folks assume they couldn't afford a new vehicle, so go looking exclusively for late model used. Even if they look at the new truck while there, the sticker scares them back to looking at late model used, as they may not realize they can get at least $10K off that new truck sticker.

We have a one year old Honda Accord, and we just got a letter from the dealer informing us they could put us into a new Honda for the same or even less payment. Of course, they don't mention that of course, the term of the loan would be extended. My point is, this letter is another indication that new car dealers are scouring the bushes trying to buy late model used vehicles for their lots.
TakingThe5th
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
I think DEF also plays in to a degree on the diesels. Some folk simply don't like the idea. I have heard several people say they would prefer a bulletproof Ford 6.0 over the newer 6.7. That's quite a statement against DEF given the good reputation of the 6.7 but it speaks to people's preferences. Some felt the same way when they preferred the 7.3 engine, and there was a time when people didn't like the 7.3. People are funny with their trucks and that too impacts the price.
BB_TX
Nomad
Jun 23, 2015
As long as the economy is good, fuel prices are down, and trucks are the top selling vehicles, used prices are going to remain high. "Bubble" will pop when the economy tanks, and/or fuel prices shoot up again.

There was an article in the local paper a few days ago about how luxury car owners (Lexus, Mercedes, etc) were trading those cars in for "luxury" pickups, meaning loaded Fords, Rams, and GMs.
JustLabs
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
The value in buying a used vehicle just isn't there anymore IMO.
Powerdude
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
If you think that the used market is in a bubble or that prices are out of wack compared to new truck prices you are entirely correct !

What is happening is that new loan products on the market, like the 84-months used car loan, are pushing people to buy more car than they can afford safely, and thus holding up "nicer" or lower mile used truck and car prices.

See here

This is what happens when the Federal Reserve (which is neither a Federal or a reserve entity, it is a private bank), keeps interest rates at 0.25% for 5+ years. You have bubbles form and distortions in the marketplace.

You and I ultimately pay the price, one way or another.
IdaD
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
I looked at a ton of used 3/4 and 1 ton diesel trucks recently. I ultimately concluded that there just wasn't enough of a discount to be worth going used. New and low mileage was literally the same or more expensive than buying a basic new truck. At the end of the day I could have saved around 8k in exchange for maybe 5 years and 80,000 miles. It just didn't make sense compared to buying new.
4X4Dodger
Explorer II
Jun 23, 2015
mtofell1 wrote:
I'm no economist and haven't heard this anywhere outside of my own head but do have a theory:

3-6 years ago the economy was pretty much in the dump and there were ZERO new vehicles selling (or being manufactured). It stands to reason there is now a shortage of late model used vehicles. The economy has picked up in many areas and now there is heavy demand but little supply - So, up go the prices.

I'm very intrigued by the current used car market. I find it funny that all of the sudden there are gleaming franchises selling used vehicles (Car-Max for example). I for one think this business model is going to fall flat on its face once things "normalize" in the used car market. The supply/demand used car thing has always resulted in dimly lit lots in a crappy part of town moving vehicles. I just don't see the long term profitability in huge, clean showrooms with perky young ladies selling used cars.

We'll see....

Consider this about the used car market; Carmax and other large used car dealers have been around for a very long time and have been very successful.

They will continue to be successful for some very simple and very clever marketing decisions. One; The idea behind these is that they are "NO Negotiation" you get the lowest price already, dealerships where they hope you will just walk on the lot and pay what they are asking.

This business model appeals to millions of people who hate to bargain, are not particularly self confident when faced with a salesperson, and who are generally passive, non confrontational types.

These businesses did their homework and know their market well.

The car business, both new and used want to foist this idea on all buyers...the NO Negotiation Necessary Model...as it will result in much higher profits for them.

Even some of the Big Three dealers have tried to go to this business model. In fact if you question the guys at the Carmax dealer you might find it is actually owned by a nearby "Big Three" dealer.

The auto manufacturers are currently shipping and selling cars in record numbers now. Supply and demand is probably not a reason in a fragmented and locally competitive market as much as one might think.

Here in North Dakota for example a typical dealer will have a HUNDRED or more NEW pickups on their lot and the list price will be about 5 -10 thousand more than the OP is being asked to pay. They really dont want to deal. Even though all their inventories are crammed full. They are still asking $40 thousand plus for a half ton pick up. And getting it.
nevadanick
Explorer
Jun 23, 2015
I think that most people just dont research when buying. I have talked to people that were shopping for a used truck and had never even thought about a new one as they thought they couldnt afford one. The used market place knows this and takes advantage of it.

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Is there a used truck bubble?

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