I suppose I was a bit overly generalizing. I did meet one very small RV sales place that was pretty honest with me, but he fudged a bit, too :-)
Still...we just bought our first trailer! From the first guy we went to. He was the one that BSed me quite a bit, but when we went back today he didn't try to push us to the bigger trailer.
Sooo...we bought a 2017 Bullet 243BHSWE. Dry weight is 4900. With 1000 lbs cargo we're pushing things if my kids gain a lot of weight, but should be fine.
Last I found, GVWR for my Toyota is 7300. Curb weight is 5985. Payload is therefore 1315. We currently add about 500-530 pounds or so. If I round to 600, that leaves 715 lbs. 100 lbs of cargo leaves 615 for tongue weight. With weight distribution that allows around a 750lb tongue weight. Worst case scenario would 7500 lb trailer weight. Best case would be around 5800. I know it's pushing things, but we could move cargo to the trailer and It's going to be quite a while before we reach 600 lbs of weight. Motivation to diet and exercise, I suppose...