Forum Discussion
otrfun wrote:
There are many details that remain to be worked out---but, the writing certainly appears on the wall: day-to-day commuters looking to purchase a new vehicle in 15 years or so will probably have their choices limited solely to EV's.
With that being said, got to wonder how manufacturers (and lawmakers) will address the production of *new*, recreational vehicles and TV's (specifically those with a GVWR >10k) in 15 years?
EV’s are changing so fast right now. I very much doubt there will be a market for gasser cars or light duty trucks in 2035. Who’s going to want to buy a clunky, gutless, noisy, stinky, high maintenance, inconvenient, expensive to fuel gasser that you have to fuel at a gas station.
Not everybody has the same driving needs, but we are pretty average and for our needs there isn’t anything a gasser can do that our EV can’t do better. What’s it going to be like after 15 more years of development.
I’m sure there will still be a market for some applications of gas and diesel vehicles, but it’s going to be a different landscape. Any kid growing up in an EV household will never, not ever choose a gasser over electric. There would have to be a ton of improvements in gas vehicles before somebody went backwards, and I don’t see companies like ford or GM throwing lots of money at it when the writing is on the wall.
All JMHO.wnjj wrote:
It was miserable here in SoCal in the '70s and still lots of room for improvement.JRscooby wrote:
KD4UPL wrote:
It's amazing how someone can think their way of life needs to imposed on everyone else even though they don't understand other people's way of life.
Yes, the whole world must comply with our way of life, no matter if our grandkids have no clean air or water
The 1970’s called. They want their clean air and water argument back.
Pick your poison.- otrfunExplorer IIThere are many details that remain to be worked out---but, the writing certainly appears on the wall: day-to-day commuters looking to purchase a new vehicle in 15 years or so will probably have their choices limited solely to EV's.
With that being said, got to wonder how manufacturers (and lawmakers) will address the production of *new*, recreational vehicles and TV's (specifically those with a GVWR >10k) in 15 years? - GDS-3950BHExplorer
Reisender wrote:
Plus electric vehicles are a fraction of the cost to operate.
Time will tell.
Are they? How about after EV use and ownership surpasses about 50% or so, where do you believe electricity prices will go? Down? Supply and demand still applies. Who will pay for the infrastructure required? The clowns who run the show can not even keep up with the maintenance of current infrastructure. How about highway taxes currently paid for the most part by ICE vehicles through fuel taxes? Where will those funds come from? There is no free lunch. Add to it most EVs for the masses will not have the battery life nor replacability of say a Tesla in any way shape or form, but will basically be throw away cars. May be a good time to open a scrapyard. Fraction of the cost my ass. Time will tell indeed. - RoyJExplorer
pitch wrote:
Most of you guys are just amazing!!!!!! You sit there in your smugness, declaring that there will be no electric vehicles, that battery technology will never be adequate, that the grid does not have the capacity,that this won't work and that won't work
1964 your high school graduation. They would yank your diploma and lock you up if you started goingon about a device the same size as a pack of cigarettes,( which you are familiar with because everyone smoked)that could make phone calls, do calculations,display maps and directions, receive broadcasts, and put the knowledge of the world at your fingertips. Tell them about that oven your mom has that can heat a can of soup in 3 minutes.
Tell your classmates about adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance,lane assistance.
Tearfully shout your goodbyes as they load you into the nut wagon.
Some of you guys really need to think past the end of your nose!
You can easily make the opposite argument - there were those, in the 60's, that thought by 2000 we'd colonize the moon, and by now, we should have mega-cities all over Mars. Heck, even the stubborn old mules that refuse to leave the big blue marble would be zipping around in flying cars going Mach7 from LA to NY.
Could it be, gasp, they forgot to look at the total equation: the chemical energy it takes to defy gravity and enter Martian orbit to haul a billion tons of construction equipment? The ultimate limit of near-term propulsion technology? The burden of air traffic controlling 200-million flying cars, even with exponential computing power?
Or, the near-term battery construction technology to replace every internal combustion engine, from John Deeres to Mercury marines... - RoyJExplorer
KD4UPL wrote:
Do you have any idea what it takes to make a battery? Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, and Magnesium are all MINED; largely in third world countries. The mines for these rare metals are huge; they burn vast amounts of DIESEL fuel to power the mining machines and trucks. There is lots of ground water contamination. There is lots of child labor being used. Further, unlike lead acid batteries, lithium batteries are not very recyclable; they are mostly just a throw-away battery. Current recycling "technology" for lithium batteries includes basically burning them to smelt the precious metals back out. Further, all these electric cars being recharged from a grid that is still 63% fueled by fossil fuels.
Anyone who thinks electric cars are "saving the planet" or keeping the air and water clean isn't looking at the whole picture.
THAT is what I'm concerned about; a lot more so than grid capacity.
So far I've never seen a conclusive study on global CO2 and other pollutants if EVERY car is converted to EV.
We need to study the cradle to grave effect of electrification, not just the immediate city streets that get cleaner air. - free_radicalExplorer
pitch wrote:
And another thing, If you all don't start encouraging and support alternate sources,you are doing the nation an amazing disservice. I can guarantee that if we as a nation do not get behind new power,with support and yes, even subsidies, China is going to eat our lunch. They are already ahead on the technology.
So go ahead and stick your head in the sand and your dupa in the air, because our grandchildren will be driving Chinese cars or at least ones that China will be pulling royalty payment from.
so true
and their secret is
china poverty eradication - Grit_dogNavigatorWe should probably bring the Lorax into this discussion...
- JRscoobyExplorer II
Lynnmor wrote:
JRscooby wrote:
Do you understand most people in the world don't travel as far in their life as we do in a year? Most food in the world is consumed within a few miles of where it is produced?
The fact is the whole world shares in the cost of our lifestyle.
I do understand that there are those that want that wonderful lifestyle for the U.S., will you be satisfied when we accomplish this goal?
We believe our lifestyle should be universal. But every place in the educated world understands the atmosphere can not absorb the combustion of enough fossil fuel for the US to continue with our lifestyle, let alone spread it to more of the world population.
Just now, the PO has said they will switch to EVs where practical. If this had happened 30 years ago, EVs would be abundant and reasonably priced. Because we can't understand the bag of cookies will run out, or the black tank will get full, we are leaving our grandkids a mess with little time to clean it up. - LynnmorExplorer
JRscooby wrote:
Do you understand most people in the world don't travel as far in their life as we do in a year? Most food in the world is consumed within a few miles of where it is produced?
The fact is the whole world shares in the cost of our lifestyle.
I do understand that there are those that want that wonderful lifestyle for the U.S., will you be satisfied when we accomplish this goal?
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