Coronavirus practical issues

bid_time wrote:

TechWriter wrote:

bid_time wrote:

TechWriter wrote:

covered wagon wrote:
I don't understand did someone with all knowledge suddenly say this flu is the end of the world or something? It's weird because it's no worse than a common yearly flu season flu.

Seasonal flu has a 0.1% death rate. Currently, COVID-19 has over a 3% death rate. That makes COVID-19 30 times more deadly.

And if you're over 70, the death rate jumps to 8%, and over 80, the death rate is 15%.

Finally, there isn't any vaccine or treatment for this new flu.

How do you know what the death rate is when they don't even know how many cases there are. If there are 3 times as many cases as being reported (remember 80% no symptoms or mild symptoms), then your death rate goes down dramatically. Only 16,500 people out of 333 million have been tested. You numbers are pure speculation and have no basis in fact.

My numbers came from the March 3rd WHO report, but, unfortunately, it's old news now.

Here's the "most significant conclusion" from the March 16 Imperial College Report:

In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

By my calculation 1.2 million deaths is 0.3%, 10 times less then the 3% death rate you predicted earlier.