Nothing will happen if you overload it by 5 %. I explained the same thing that you are asking to my wife the other day after going to the cat scale. My pin weight is good and I'm under by 800 lbs on the axles. We have a lot of bedding and kitchen stuff already loaded and I wanted to know where we are as we load up. I shoot for staying under the numbers.
I told her that even if we were a hundred or 200 or 300 over, the axle or frame or spring isn't going to break instantly. If the tire says 2680 and we put 125 lbs more on it it's not going to blow out just sitting there and its probably not going too blow as soon as it rolls. Imagine the trailer just sitting there and start adding weight. As it got heavier you would see the tire squat more and the spring would compress until it was smashed to the frame. At the same time the axle may be starting to bend and some point in there the tire would blow.
So its like looking at a graph and as the weight goes up the risk of the tire blowing, spring breaking or axle bending goes up too. Then its a matter of all the variables that are involved. If you overloaded by say 10% now that tire has another 268 lb on it. Will it blow? Probably not right away but its more likely and the chances go up as the conditions that the tire is subjected to worsen. It would blow quicker if it was on 140 degree pavement vs 40 degree or 70 mph vs 45 mph or riding a very rough road edge on the curb side vs smoother on the drivers side.
I used to wrench at a landscaping yard and watched them load customers vehicles and trailers. People would come in with snowmobile trailers to get top soil and have no idea how little it could carry or how heavy dirt is. I watched them go out with the axles bent so far that the tires were almost rubbing the frame. The axles bent but the tires didn't blow. Watched one guy make it out the driveway and as he turned onto the hwy the side force popped the tires off the beads and both ends of the axles bent. It was priceless entertainment.
The owner/office lady said hey can you go help him, I said no, there is nothing I can do, back a pickup up to his trailer and tell him to unload it. The landscaper did snow removal and used an F350 with a heavy full width salt spreader on the back of a dump box. They figured that if you put higher side boards on you could carry all the salt they want. They didn't want to run back and forth for two jobs that were about 10 miles away so they would have salt running over they sides. They said the truck broke and sent me out to the job. He had turned off the hwy into the black top parking lot and blew most of the studs off both sides of the rear duals.
The tires didn't blow, springs didn't break and the frame didn't break. It was so heavy that our little 2 ton floor jack wouldn't start to lift it. I said _ _ _ _ this and drove over to a tool supply place where we had an account and bought the big long floor jack that was around 7 or 8 ton and used in truck shops. It lifted it but pushed the wheels into the blacktop and it was dead winter. They were ticked and made me return the jack as it cost too much. Idiots.
So.....what will break first? It's like watching those Jackass videos, you never know what the outcome is until it happens.