German Resolution to ban ICE engines by 2030 passes

[John___Angela]

It will be interesting to see how this affects availability of chassis for class C and B motorhomes. Still thirteen years away but right about then we will be downsizing to a small B class. Might be interesting.

This is the only English article I could find on the article. The German article is more encompassing. This follows Norways 2025 and Hollands 2026 plans for the same thing although the details are different.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/news/a31097/german-government-votes-to-ban-internal...

[John___Angela]

troubledwaters wrote:

bob_nestor wrote:
Just about any politician will tell you, and the voters, that engineers are too stupid to advance technology and business leaders too greedy to market that better mousetrap all by themselves. It takes the leadership, vision and foresight of a Politician to make the hard decisions that will advance technology and force the engineers and business leaders to implement them. The engineering challenges and potential market profits by themselves are just not enough to motive advancements, at least according to the Politician.

I think you got it a little backwards. What if I was to tell you you could get a pickup today that would get 100 mpg. Would you buy it? Who wouldn't. But then, what if I told you that it cost $30,000.00 more (technology ain't cheap)? Well then you would pull out your calculator and determine that you could buy about 13,000 gallons of gas and at 16 mpg that's about 200,000 miles. Way longer than most people keep a truck. Now who would buy it? And a manufacturer ain't going to make it if they can't sell it and make a profit.

But when a politician comes along and says "Though shalt ..." well now all of a sudden you got buyers that have to buy it and pay for it whether they want to or not. Now the manufacturer can make it and make a profit doing it because you don't have a better choice.

I don't know about Canada but in the US the reason EV's are selling is because of the tax incentive. Take the tax incentive out of the picture then watch what happens. And guess who's paying for that nice little tax break? If they had to stand on their own - it would be a whole different ball game.

I think you are right to some degree. Places where they have started and then stopped the incentives have seen big drops in sales. However as the price differential narrows between the two types of vehicles that will obviously go away. For example. Most incentive schemes don't include TESLAS as they are over 75,000 dollars. TESLA builds about 80,000 cars per year and sells them all for around 100,,000 thousand. The only thing that competes with them are high end BMW's and Mercedes and neither of those two can touch the performance, acceleration or quietness or luxury of the TESLA. Plus the owners like not having to stop for gas as well as the low maintenance. Plug it in overnight once a week and the car is happy. The truck is to get those advantages into the 30,000 dollar cars which hasn't happened yet. Then incentives won't be necessary and the game will change.

One of our EV's is a Nissan leaf with the bigger battery. A nice medium range car. It is appointed as nice as my neighbours Cadillac with exeption of missing the power seats. Although his caddies rear sesrs are not heated and ours are. But the leaf is quieter and quicker than the caddy off the line for sure and has a nicer sound system. You can get a leaf for under thirty thousand without an incentive right now so it is getting close. The only draw back with a leaf is of course it is meant for the medium range market so although suitable for the long distance work commute doesn't work well for a cross country tour vehicle. It depends on the persons needs. Our car seems to be good for 180 to 200 km of mixed driving which is about double what we need. It does have a high speed CHADEMO charge port which can make it work for the occasional long distance trip.

I think the need for tax incentives will be gone in about three years. The incentives are/were worth it if helps to reduce fossil fuel usage. There is no down side to that.

[troubledwaters]

bob_nestor wrote:
Just about any politician will tell you, and the voters, that engineers are too stupid to advance technology and business leaders too greedy to market that better mousetrap all by themselves. It takes the leadership, vision and foresight of a Politician to make the hard decisions that will advance technology and force the engineers and business leaders to implement them. The engineering challenges and potential market profits by themselves are just not enough to motive advancements, at least according to the Politician.

I think you got it a little backwards. What if I was to tell you you could get a pickup today that would get 100 mpg. Would you buy it? Who wouldn't. But then, what if I told you that it cost $30,000.00 more (technology ain't cheap)? Well then you would pull out your calculator and determine that you could buy about 13,000 gallons of gas and at 16 mpg that's about 200,000 miles. Way longer than most people keep a truck. Now who would buy it? And a manufacturer ain't going to make it if they can't sell it and make a profit.

But when a politician comes along and says "Though shalt ..." well now all of a sudden you got buyers that have to buy it and pay for it whether they want to or not. Now the manufacturer can make it and make a profit doing it because you don't have a better choice.

I don't know about Canada but in the US the reason EV's are selling is because of the tax incentive. Take the tax incentive out of the picture then watch what happens. And guess who's paying for that nice little tax break? If they had to stand on their own - it would be a whole different ball game.

[RobertRyan]

John and Angela wrote:
I hope it works out as well. Electric vehicles are such a superior drive I would hate to think they have come this far to fail. I doubt they will though as the demand is definitely there.

They very well could. As I have posted before a lot of work on newer diesels and other types of Engines in Europe.
Mercedes Benz estimates by 2025 , 25% of all MB cars will be EV's. It also means that 75% will be running on Petrol, Diesel or other types of combustible fuel

Daimler's (DAIGn.DE) Mercedes-Benz and Smart brands will launch more than 10 electric cars by 2025, and zero-emission vehicles will make up between 15 percent and 25 percent of overall Mercedes sales by then, Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche said.

[John___Angela]

CampbellDaycruiser wrote:
I would think that one of the new 200+ mile range EVs would make a good Toad and I can see having EVSE on site would be be something an RV resort or Park would want to do. If only to have something else to charge for!

We have noticed only a couple with an actual charge station. However many of us carry hi power level 2 EVSE's with us. These are sometimes sold with adaptor packs with various dog bones that allow us to connect to dryer plugs old and new, stove plugs, 120 etc. We carry a pack of 5 adaptor a with us. Always nice though when there is a ready to go j1702 level 2 charge station. I suspect campgrounds will adapt over time as clients ask for them. Restaurants are starting to get on board now. Shopping malls and areas even more so. And yah, we find it influences where we shop and eat. Interesting.

[CampbellDaycrui]

I would think that one of the new 200+ mile range EVs would make a good Toad and I can see having EVSE on site would be be something an RV resort or Park would want to do. If only to have something else to charge for!

[CampbellDaycrui]

John & Angela wrote:

pnichols wrote:
IMHO, recreational vehicles of all types will never be much a part of the overall pollution problem ... there's not enough of them on a world scale. I hope they continue to get powered by natural gas or gasoline or diesel for many years to come so that we can continue to refuel everywhere with these high energy storage-per-unit sources.

To my knowledge it's the trucks, planes, ships, daily living personal vehicles, building heating/cooling equipment, eating of beef products, and deforestation that are the main concerns.

Very good point.

What they said.

[John___Angela]

pnichols wrote:
J & A,

Thanks much for your answers above to the questions and issues that I brought up.

I hope the EV battery future goes that smooth. But I am skeptical at this point ... only time will tell what the real environmental cost is of EV batteries when EVs are used all over the world by the multi-tens of millions.

I had read once that it was a very "messy" issue manufacturing the batteries for the Prius - but I think that those batteries were of a different technology.

I hope it works out as well. Electric vehicles are such a superior drive I would hate to think they have come this far to fail. I doubt they will though as the demand is definitely there.

The original prius batteries were nickel metal hydride but I don't know much about them. They are all more than 12 years old now and many are starting to come due for change. I don't know how those are disposed of or recycled.

There is a lot of battery research going on right now. Just from what I read, I'm not sure that lithium batteries will be the norm in 10 years as there are other technologies being developed with higher energy density. Probably a ways away though and lithium has kind of proven itself. Like you say, we will have to wait and see. We are retiring in about 6 years and will no longer need two vehicles. We will replace them with whatever is current at the time but whatever it is I hope it has about 5000 pounds of tow capacity and 250 to 300 miles of range like the Tesla S today...just not 90,000 bucks.

We are super pleased with our existing electric vehicles and expect them to serve us well till then but they are medium range vehicles and once we are retired we will need something a little different. They were relatively inexpensive and are a pleasure to drive. Love our little cabrio though. Way fun.

[pnichols]

J & A,

Thanks much for your answers above to the questions and issues that I brought up.

I hope the EV battery future goes that smooth. But I am skeptical at this point ... only time will tell what the real environmental cost is of EV batteries when EVs are used all over the world by the multi-tens of millions.

I had read once that it was a very "messy" issue manufacturing the batteries for the Prius - but I think that those batteries were of a different technology.

[bob_nestor]

Bumpyroad wrote:

RoyF wrote:
This has a long way to go before coming real. Look at this follow-up article:

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/news/a31123/german-transport-minister-calls-interna...

I note that "UTTER NONSENSE" is emphasized.

why don't they just pass a law that requires all vehicles to get 100 mpg?

bumpy

Just about any politician will tell you, and the voters, that engineers are too stupid to advance technology and business leaders too greedy to market that better mousetrap all by themselves. It takes the leadership, vision and foresight of a Politician to make the hard decisions that will advance technology and force the engineers and business leaders to implement them. The engineering challenges and potential market profits by themselves are just not enough to motive advancements, at least according to the Politician.

[John___Angela]

Lots of good questions. I'm not an expert but know a little bit about some of them....just from reading though.

pnichols wrote:
I'm curious about the behind-the-scenes facts surrounding the manufacture, disposal, and replacement of potloads of Li batteries when "everyone (in the world)" is eventually using them in their personal vehicles:

- How large is the world's supply of lithium natural resources?

Found this "The U.S. Geological Survey produced a reserves estimate of lithium in early 2015, concluding that the world has enough known reserves for about 365 years of current global production of about 37,000 tons per year"

- What countries are going to supply the above?

Found this Brazil. "Brazil produced the seventh most lithium in the world at 400 metric tons in 2014. ...
Portugal. Portugal produces the sixth most lithium at 570 metric tons as per 2014 reports. ...
Zimbabwe. ...
Argentina. ...
China. ...
Chile. ...
Australia.

They have also found deposits in half dozen other countries but there is no demand yet that the others can't fill.

- What are the geo-political implications of these various Li sources?

No idea

- Are we eventually talking about freight trains transporting lithium resource materials in several parts of the world ... like used to be/is the case with coal? (Petroleum and natural gas can be transported through pipes in a lot of areas - instead of via a string of freight cars.)

A tesla with the big battery uses about 14 Kg of lithium in the process

- What does the total infrastructure for disposal of expired Li batteries look like?

Not much in the way of disposal yet although there are a handful of companies developing remanufacturing processes that use the degraded batteries for other purposes. Home solar collection etc. If a battery loses 30 percent of its capacity it might not work well for the car anymore but could have another 10 to 20 years of repurposed life.

- Can expired Li batteries be recycled ... or must they be completely disposed of?

Recycling processes to date have been time and labor intensive but the next generations of packs is being designed to accommodate recycling better. i don't hink its an easy process from what I have seen

- Looking at the huge eye-sore piles of scrapped electronic products awaiting recycling or melting down or burying in certain countries (not the U.S.) ... is this how depleted Li batteries are going to wind up in certain unfortunate countries?

No idea. Depends on their goverments I suppose.

- What does the total infrastructure for replacement of the Li batteries in vehicles look like? Purchased on eBay, sold by Amazon, sold by Walmart, etc. and then taken to a service point for installation? Only dealers can source and install them? Shade tree mechanics and/or EV owners can install them? When they go so flat at one's home and one lives too far from a replacement facility, how does one get their EV to a facility for replacement (gas and diesel can be taken in a smal container to a vehicle needing refueling)? Are we talking about a whole new cottage industry of Li batteries replacement at the owner's place of residence?

I think its too hard to tell yet. There hasn't been a real cottage industry developing yet as the few batteries that have been replaced under warranties go back to the manufacturer for analysis etc. Wait ten years and we'll know more. Getting the car to a dealer?, I would suspect a tow truck. There are lots of nissan, mercedes, BMW, Chevy, and Kia dealers. Tesla sends a truck and brings it to a repair facility.

- As a very rough comparison ... what are the behind-the-scenes logistics surrounding how are the world's supply of expired dry cell batteries and lead acid vehicle batteries are disposed of?

No idea on dry cell. Pretty much 100 percent of lead is recycled. That is why there are very few lead mines in existence anymore. Lead is considered toxic if buried. Water table poisoning etc. Lithium batteries are not considered toxic materials although it would be a waste to just toss them out. Remember, the lithium doesn't get depleted or used up, just the anode cathode barriers get compromised.

I hope that the world's solutions to all of the above don't wind up polluting Mother Earth more than use of fossil fuel does.

I agree and share your concern, although nothing presently points to that and we already know how deadly burning fossil fuels is to our planet.

[pnichols]

I'm curious about the behind-the-scenes facts surrounding the manufacture, disposal, and replacement of potloads of Li batteries when "everyone (in the world)" is eventually using them in their personal vehicles:

- How large is the world's supply of lithium natural resources?

- What countries are going to supply the above?

- What are the geo-political implications of these various Li sources?

- Are we eventually talking about freight trains transporting lithium resource materials in several parts of the world ... like used to be/is the case with coal? (Petroleum and natural gas can be transported through pipes in a lot of areas - instead of via a string of freight cars.)

- What does the total infrastructure for disposal of expired Li batteries look like?

- Can expired Li batteries be recycled ... or must they be completely disposed of?

- Looking at the huge eye-sore piles of scrapped electronic products awaiting recycling or melting down or burying in certain countries (not the U.S.) ... is this how depleted Li batteries are going to wind up in certain unfortunate countries?

- What does the total infrastructure for replacement of the Li batteries in vehicles look like? Purchased on eBay, sold by Amazon, sold by Walmart, etc. and then taken to a service point for installation? Only dealers can source and install them? Shade tree mechanics and/or EV owners can install them? When they go so flat at one's home and one lives too far from a replacement facility, how does one get their EV to a facility for replacement (gas and diesel can be taken in a smal container to a vehicle needing refueling)? Are we talking about a whole new cottage industry of Li batteries replacement at the owner's place of residence?

- As a very rough comparison ... what are the behind-the-scenes logistics surrounding how are the world's supply of expired dry cell batteries and lead acid vehicle batteries are disposed of?

I hope that the world's solutions to all of the above don't wind up polluting Mother Earth more than use of fossil fuel does.

[RGar974417]

John & Angela wrote:

RGar974417 wrote:
Where do these people think electric comes from?Either fossil fuels, hydro electric or nuclear all which liberals despise.There is no way they will be bale to generate enough electricity from renewable sources by then. And what about over loading the electrical grid? Right now in the US our electric grid during really warm summers are in danger of collapsing.Now add hundreds of thousands of car chargers? These people are delerious.

Depending on the country I suppose. Some European countries as well as Canada produce significant amounts of energy from renewable sources. It depends on the district, province, region or state where you live. Some provinces produce more than 95 percent of their power from hydro alone. Norway is another example. The idea is to improve air quality in cities which I think is a good plan.

I don't know much about the US grid but to give an idea of what impact electric vehicles will have on a grid, the BC hydro website has some interesting info. On a provincial level if every personal passenger vehicle in BC were to be replaced by an electric vehicle the grid load would increase by 19 percent. The current extra capacity is 30 percent and growing. The average household with an Electric Vehicle uses the equivalent of an electric water heater on an annualized basis. As well most charging is done at night when power companies have excess capacity.

We are an all EV household. When we bought our town house we changed all the light bulbs to LED's, new thermostat, new fridge etc. looking at the previous owners bills and ours there has been very little if any monthly increase. Having said that we only do about 15000 Km per year between the two cars although we are closer to 18000 km this year.

Re the motorhome chassis. The Tesla X is the TESLA SUV. I would think that platform could be a possibility for a small class C. Maybe an integrated 12 KW diesel APU. Mercedes has a bunch of heavier platform E-vehicles coming to market this year. Possibly adaptable. I would think there would be a market. A low maintenance electric B class would be nice.

Interesting times.

Hydro electric is great.But the libs here are forcing dams to be torn down to save fish.It will be a warm day in hell when we start building hydro electric dams again in the US. Same goes for nuclear.If the Germans can do it great.It won't happen here. I too replaced all my light bulbs with LED and am contemplating installing a solar domestic water system.So I'm not against renewables,I'm just being realistic in the US market. It may come some day but not in my lifetime.

[snowcrustracer]

From Wikipedia:Wikipedia
Solar energy gathered by photovoltaic solar panels, intended for delivery to a power grid, must be conditioned, or processed for use, by a grid-connected inverter. Fundamentally, an inverter changes the DC input voltage from the PV to AC voltage for the grid. This inverter sits between the solar array and the grid, draws energy from each, and may be a large stand-alone unit or may be a collection of small inverters, each physically attached to individual solar panels. See AC Module. The inverter must monitor grid voltage, waveform, and frequency. One reason for monitoring is if the grid is dead or strays too far out of its nominal specifications, the inverter must not pass along any solar energy. An inverter connected to a malfunctioning power line will automatically disconnect in accordance with safety rules, for example UL1741, which vary by jurisdiction. Another reason for the inverter monitoring the grid is because for normal operation the inverter must synchronize with the grid waveform, and produce a voltage slightly higher than the grid itself, in order for energy to smoothly flow outward from the solar array.


I was able to be in a class held by a Government Inspector who's job is to make sure solar installers were using Federal $$ in a effective manor. Let's just say he has many horror stories to tell. One of which was that In neighborhoods where there were many homes with solar the higher voltages were shutting down the grid-connected inverters. Many customers were not getting as much $$ back as say a year ago when they were the only solar customer in the neighborhood and were blaming the electric meters.

That's all I got.

[John___Angela]

pnichols wrote:
IMHO, recreational vehicles of all types will never be much a part of the overall pollution problem ... there's not enough of them on a world scale. I hope they continue to get powered by natural gas or gasoline or diesel for many years to come so that we can continue to refuel everywhere with these high energy storage-per-unit sources.

To my knowledge it's the trucks, planes, ships, daily living personal vehicles, building heating/cooling equipment, eating of beef products, and deforestation that are the main concerns.

Very good point.

[John___Angela]

CampbellDaycruiser wrote:

gotsmart wrote:

John & Angela wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this affects availability of chassis for class C and B motorhomes. Still thirteen years away but right about then we will be downsizing to a small B class. Might be interesting.

This is the only English article I could find on the article. The German article is more encompassing. This follows Norways 2025 and Hollands 2026 plans for the same thing although the details are different.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/news/a31097/german-government-votes-to-ban-internal...

Big Woof. What's going to change? IMO, nothing. Why? Because if it doesn't ban petrol stations and ICE-based vehicles from being driven on the roads then it is toothless. Drivers and RVers, within and without Germany, will still drive their ICE vehicles in Germany and will need petrol stations. If the EU Commission does not agree with Germany then the only people affected will be German citizens buying new vehicles and Germany-based automobile MFGs. The Germany-based automobile MFGs will still make ICE vehicles - for export only.

If you ban the sale of new ICE chassis, in 10 years the number on the road will begin to drop off pretty quickly. How many people will want to buy a Class A or C that's 10 years used just for the nostalgia of having a smelly ICE? I'm sure the diehards will keep rebuilding their vehicles as long as they can but eventually the RV will fall apart, not the chassis, forcing them to buy new.

I don't know. Like I say there will be an export market for awhile yet. I also don't think it will affect heavy chassis products and the reality is there are no Class A diesel chassis built in Europe.

It will affect class B and C chassis though. But these are also good candidates for electrification. Depending on your camping style a totally electric class B or small C would be pretty cool. I would think they would need a robust 12 KW APU though to allow autonomous overnight recharging etc. but a 100 to 150KWH battery pack would bring a whole new automomy to dry camping. I would think as well that campgrounds would also want to jump on the CHADEMO quick charger wagon. Probably some opportunities there. Camp grounds are already putting themselves on the charge station APPS and benefitting from another revenue stream of EV drivers. They already have the infrastructure and literally don't have to spend a penny. We seem to notice anywhere from 7 to 12 dollar costs on the charge apps. Comparable to CHADEMO depending on battery size.