The beginning of a trend? Tipping point reached?

[Ralph_Cramden]

We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

[theoldwizard1]

Bubble or at least plateau.

[2oldman]

drsteve wrote:
Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

Yeah, been there. I don't think we need to do a lot of speculation and guessing about it. Ya know what they say about ignoring history...assuming you know history enough to ignore it.

[drsteve]

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

Econ 101 says otherwise, and so does history. Tariffs were one of the triggers for the Great Depression. There are no winners in a trade war.

[Grit_dog]

Sweet!
I could use a newer camper for cheap and a new truck that isn’t magically $60k!
Only trouble is I’d sure like to cash out our current house but that ain’t gonna happen....sure would be nice though...

[Big_Katuna]

Big adjustment coming.

[Ralph_Cramden]

Since 1981 the RV Industry has never went more than 5 years without a downturn. Its been 8 years since the last and not one month since 2010 showed a negative number until May 2018. The July numbers should be out any day. Have they hit the top of the curve? Maybe?

HISTORICAL DATA

[jplante4]

It's probably seasonal more than anything else. If you want to use the camper in the summer, you need to buy it in the spring. Units shipped in June are probably still in the warranty repair cycle at the dealers.

[JIMNLIN]

Scottiemom wrote:
Here in Elkhart County, Indiana, the RV Capital of the World, this is hard to believe. Perhaps the shipments are down because they can't get more haulers to take them away. Thousands of RV's are sitting in lots and in every blank space in the area waiting to go out. Been like that all summer. It was like this before the crash in '08. Here in the campground, it seems like a new batch come in for delivery and they are gone the next day.

Time will tell, I guess.

Dale

Yeah both load board webs I'm on are constantly running adds for rv transporters especially Elkhart area.
I was talking with a transporter the other day at the truck stop next to me on I-44. He had a brand new roll back with a short TT on the deck and towing another. He said his company couldn't find enough transporters to keep up with all the units being made. Both his TTs he was carrying came out of a rented pasture.

[Dave_H_M]

bucky, I was thinking that from the get go. :h

i always see a lot of talk about people financing and RV/camper. There is no way i would be making payments on a camper.

i often wonder what percentage of the campers out there have owners that are making payments.

Does anyone have a real world stat on that?

[bucky]

Since when is 11.4 percent one tick?

[Chris_Bryant]

We have manufactured a huge bubble, and it's going to burst. Debt levels are skyrocketing in all areas, US, business and personal.
Add that to the effects of climate change witch simply cannot be ignored, as it smacks us in the face with drought and flooding and the picture isn't pretty.

[DutchmenSport]

rk911 wrote:
to what are you referring?

RV sales have been in a steady incline for quite a while now. Production has boomed, sales have boomed, stocks on all the manufacturers have blossomed, it's been a remarkable industry for the last 4 or 5 years or so. Steady increase in sales, no slumping.

Now, all of a sudden, this indicates there is a slight slump in sales. Is this a good thing? Well, if you are a stock holder, probably not. If stock holders take this one-time indicator as the beginning of a downward spin, then it won't take long for the industry to dive down again.

But with any industry, there are always the ups and downs of sales.

It possible the market has finally been saturated with RV's. It's possible interest rates are on the rise. It's possible "baby boomers" are dying off and the "minimalist" generation is just getting tired of living in cardboard boxes and beginning to buy crystal chandelier Bedford Stone mansions too.

It could also mean, a lot of folks who "thought" RV-ing was the solution to all their financial problem, turned out to be not what they expected, and are now exiting the life-style.

All these things could cause a downward slump in RV sales.

The thing is, it starts somewhere, for some reason. I don't think the industry is dying at all yet. I do think it could finally level out.

Only time will tell.

One thing is certain, campgrounds are crowded. There are checks-and-balances in all walks of life, the law of supply-and-demand, these things drives everything in the end.

Beginning of a trend in downward sales? Who knows?

[2oldman]

memtb wrote:
Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs!

I don't see anyone doing that.

[memtb]

Do ya think that the “fed” raising interest rates could “also” play into this? Or...are we just gonna “bash” the tariffs? It seems that the majority of fault finding points at the tariffs. I may be wrong....but I think the tariffs, are ultimately a good thing. They may cause discomfort at first.....but will help long term!

[Scottiemom]

Here in Elkhart County, Indiana, the RV Capital of the World, this is hard to believe. Perhaps the shipments are down because they can't get more haulers to take them away. Thousands of RV's are sitting in lots and in every blank space in the area waiting to go out. Been like that all summer. It was like this before the crash in '08. Here in the campground, it seems like a new batch come in for delivery and they are gone the next day.

Time will tell, I guess.

Dale