I want one!

[pianotuna]

Hi All,

500 mile range loaded to 80,000 pounds. 30 minutes to recharge to 400 mile range. It may be self driving, too.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113863_tesla-semi-500-mile-range-lower-running-costs-than-dies...

[jharrell]

2oldman wrote:
Let's assume 500 HP.

1 HP =746 watts, 500x 746= 373,000 watts. At 1000v that's about 373 amps. You'd certainly have to run some pretty high voltage to keep the cable size down. Diesel/electric locomotives do it.

Now, that's PEAK performance, so I suppose it would be less than that most of the time.

They are saying 2 kwhr per mile, or about 150 HP at cruise on flat ground at 60 mph, which is about right with good aerodynamics.

That means the 500 mile range semi has a 1000 kwhr battery. Thats right 1 megawatt hour! Thats ten model S batteries.

Model S batteries are 1200 lbs, so your looking at at least a 10,000 lbs battery.

Tesla says their current battery cost is under $190 per kwhr, so at least $180,000 cost for the battery.

Their not yet deployed megacharger can charge 400 miles in 30 minutes, that means its 1600 kw, imagine a station of 10 of them pulling 16 megawatts, like the power draw of a small city!

You could charge it in 80 hours at full blast on a 50 amp campground service, they probably wouldn't like that.

[pianotuna]

The grid is decrepit. In 1957 an 1100 square foot apartment only required a 40 amp service. A building with 43 suites has a main fuse of only 1000 amps. How do I know? I just paid for upgrading to 70 amps which including drawing #3 wire in a 1 inch conduit for 100 feet (with two bends).

I would be hard pressed to charge an electric car from the 15 amp service to my parking spot--but I hope to be able to afford to do so some day.

[MEXICOWANDERER]

What is missing is even a hint from Brown as to WHOM is working on feasibility studies. As shown from the effects of the horrors of the wine country disasters and the face of hell in Burlingame CA because of a puposefully ignored distribution pipeline one of the largest utility companies in the state has shown utter incompetence at dealing with obviously ludicrous management. PG&E is being sued for billions of dollars. They will be found guilty someone has to fall on their sword. Brown knows this. He is remaining utterly silent about the fault of the State Public Utilities Commission to have seen unconscionable dangers. It was right in front of their eyes. Read a doc.gov paragraph

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) regulates privately owned electric, natural gas, telecommunications, water, railroad, rail transit, and passenger transportation companies. The agency’s mission is to ensure that regulated utilities provide safe and reliable services at affordable rates. In addition to its regulatory activities, CPUC also administers programs that provide subsidized utility services to certain underserved populations and supports energy-related research and development activities.

ONE POINT EIGHT BILLION DOLLAR BUDGET. PG&E will file bankruptcy after a declaration of underwriting shortfalls are announced. Probably next June. The State will inefficiently cover the litigation and settlement. A titanic bite out of the State Budget. Think utility rates EVERYWHERE in the state of California are not going to soar? Say goodbye to the new seventeen cents per gallon gasoline road improvement tax being used for road repair. When underwriters face gross shortfalls they are granted exceptions to raise rates. Rates that cover all aspects of coverage for anything. Even auto liability and homeowner liability rates are going to soar.

One aspect of government is it is the epitome of self survival. Homes with massive battery and generation capabilities WILL BE TAXED under the "auspices" of inspected conformity and safety. Seventy eight and a third miles from the nearest power pole will prove to be no advantage at all. If Eldon Musk breaks an unseen barrier and become noticed by governvironmentalists then he will become the target of unimaginable pressure to pay to play. A massive structural growth will endanger the California blue eyed stinkbug, emissions limits will get re calibrated and California gets a new source of government Holy Grail. Revenue.

The Pineapple Express roars and California plays possum? It's all WORST CASE ENGINEERING - never forget that. The grid that is no longer necessary because of modular energy structuring is a fantasy. Try placing a natural gas generating plant within eyesight of anyone whose income exceeds $50,000 yr and you will see political threats and Marching Soy Protein Legions. This isn't funny. It's pathetic. As an engineer I have had to live with avoiding vulnerability. Good engineers make it an art form. Dreamy eyed wish-it-were-true is not part of the program.

Before getting ALL wound up about Florida's census increase, versus infrastructure comparison, it is necessary to determine exactly the components that make up the equation. The ingress was primarily energy hungry families with multiple automobiles, and a 4/3 rancher with swimming pool? Or perhaps retired people living in far less square footage, requiring a fifth of the energy of the former? Can YOU live on 75 kWh? Understand please that grasping raw numbers is worse than useless. It can be manipulated and warped to distort reality. Old people do not eat as much. They do not use a quarter of the energy as someone half their age.

So it's not electric I am questioning. It is unplanned unknown and unwanted feasibility specifically the lack of which I condemn. It ISN'T GOING TO CURE ITSELF. If it were allowed to mature on it's own the growth cycle would include all phases of development.

But Governor MOONBEAM has mandated the ELIMINATION of hydrocarbon motor vehicles. A law. Laws mean things. Break a law and learn the hard way. Like me ordering a battery charger from Michigan, finding out after my money was accepted that the shipment was denied. After 65 days I was reimbursed but not for the shipping. For a stupid piece of new equipment that had a default shutdown timer.

Chief Bromden, Randle McMurphy, Nurse Ratched --- Where Are You?
(Characters in One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest)

Bill Gates teaches a kindergarten class to count to ten. “1, 2, 3, 3.1, 95, 98, ME, 2000, XP, Vista, 7, 8, 10.”

[LenSatic]

profdant139 wrote:

If my series of assumptions is right, the long-term role of the power companies will change from energy providers to energy distributors. Eventually, the market (guided by the awkward hand of the PUC) will adjust to the new reality. Rainbows will sprout from the high voltage pylons, and we will all be driving electric vehicles using renewables.

I am guessing that since I know nothing about the electricity industry, I am missing something here??

I find it odd that a fellow boondocker would think this. Our house is just a scaled up boondocking RV. Instead of two or three 85W panels, we have fifteen 220W panels. Instead of one 12v battery, we have twenty-four 2v batteries. We do not pay to camp (no mortgage) and do not pay utility taxes. If the winds blow down or a drunk driver knocks down a power pole, we still have power. We use propane that is delivered once or twice a year, heat with firewood or our heat pump which provides air conditioning in the summer and shop at Walmart a couple times a month. Just like boondocking.

And this was from our porch last night:

LS

[brulaz]

Ductape wrote:

time2roll wrote:
Grid is not static.

Exactly. People ignore the fact of population increases that have already happened, just Google the population increase in Florida over time as one example. And yet the grid's not failing.

In 1917 the same belief system would predict cars will never succeed due to lack of petroleum distribution systems and refining capacity. Transportation won't be solved by governments, but it will be done by private industries.

Moreover, the IOT now enables the grids to manage loads intelligently and interactively. You'll be able to choose your priorities, whether you want to purchase high cost peak power vs.low cost off peak for a particular load.

A bonus is that distributed power generation and storage is more resilient than the single points of failure presented by large facilities.

Distributed generation and storage is becoming more mainstream.
A recent article about Ontario Canada's toe dipping in it:
Globe and Mail Article

Maybe rainbows will sprout from power poles ...

[John___Angela]

profdant139 wrote:
Mex, I find your posts refreshing and thought-provoking! I don't always agree with you, but it is fun to break out of my coastal California echo chamber once in a while.

But your comments have provoked this thought: let's assume that there is a surplus of solar and wind power. Let's also assume (a big assumption) that there will soon be a cost-effective way of storing that surplus power, either in centralized banks or at the consumer level. (Without cheap storage, we're done here. The energy density of stored hydrocarbons will be hard to beat.)

The deal-killing problem that you have spotted is that the present grid is not up to the task of redistributing that surplus power. Based on what you have written, I think you know what you are talking about.

But here is what I don't yet get -- if the grid is the bottleneck, and if there is sufficient demand for redistribution of excess supply, why wouldn't the power companies build extra grid capacity?

The power companies could theoretically pass those costs to everyone who relies on the grid, assuming that the Public Utilities Commission permits them to do so. (Of course, if there are lots of "cord cutters" who go off-grid, there is no way for those companies to charge the end users for the amortized cost of the capital expenditures. Let's assume that's the exception and not the norm.)

If my series of assumptions is right, the long-term role of the power companies will change from energy providers to energy distributors. Eventually, the market (guided by the awkward hand of the PUC) will adjust to the new reality. Rainbows will sprout from the high voltage pylons, and we will all be driving electric vehicles using renewables.

I am guessing that since I know nothing about the electricity industry, I am missing something here??

I tend to agree. Cord cutters are growing at a reasonable rate and the technology is there to do it. It has to be done right and it has to add value to the home or the original installer could lose their investment. EG. Is your hose worth 25 grand more to a new buyer because he will NEVER see a power bill because of a solar system and Power wall(s) in the garage?. I lean towards the yes on that one as it would be to me...depending on what everybody else in the neighbourhood is paying. Right now my power bill is 120 Canadian dollars every second month...and that also charges two electric vehicles every week. (so no gasoline bill) An off grid system for us is close to 45000 bucks so I doubt I would pay extra for that if I was looking at a house with and without a solar system. Now, in Palm Springs (our winter home) the power is twice as much and the off grid system is half as much. So yah. I would there. Again, I don't think there is a one size fits all.

Bottom line, utility companies will have to be competitive or people who can will drop them and go with whats cheaper.

In many countries in europe there are solar panels covering EVERYTHING. Barns, houses, sheds, factories, parking lots, . Lots of microgrids popping up.

[profdant139]

Mex, I find your posts refreshing and thought-provoking! I don't always agree with you, but it is fun to break out of my coastal California echo chamber once in a while.

But your comments have provoked this thought: let's assume that there is a surplus of solar and wind power. Let's also assume (a big assumption) that there will soon be a cost-effective way of storing that surplus power, either in centralized banks or at the consumer level. (Without cheap storage, we're done here. The energy density of stored hydrocarbons will be hard to beat.)

The deal-killing problem that you have spotted is that the present grid is not up to the task of redistributing that surplus power. Based on what you have written, I think you know what you are talking about.

But here is what I don't yet get -- if the grid is the bottleneck, and if there is sufficient demand for redistribution of excess supply, why wouldn't the power companies build extra grid capacity?

The power companies could theoretically pass those costs to everyone who relies on the grid, assuming that the Public Utilities Commission permits them to do so. (Of course, if there are lots of "cord cutters" who go off-grid, there is no way for those companies to charge the end users for the amortized cost of the capital expenditures. Let's assume that's the exception and not the norm.)

If my series of assumptions is right, the long-term role of the power companies will change from energy providers to energy distributors. Eventually, the market (guided by the awkward hand of the PUC) will adjust to the new reality. Rainbows will sprout from the high voltage pylons, and we will all be driving electric vehicles using renewables.

I am guessing that since I know nothing about the electricity industry, I am missing something here??

[fj12ryder]

Nothing wrong with being open minded, just don't be so open minded your brains fall out.

[2oldman]

Ductape wrote:
In 1917 the same belief system would predict cars will never succeed due to lack of petroleum distribution systems and refining capacity.

It's so easy to criticize new things.

[Ductape]

time2roll wrote:
Grid is not static.

Exactly. People ignore the fact of population increases that have already happened, just Google the population increase in Florida over time as one example. And yet the grid's not failing.

In 1917 the same belief system would predict cars will never succeed due to lack of petroleum distribution systems and refining capacity. Transportation won't be solved by governments, but it will be done by private industries.

Moreover, the IOT now enables the grids to manage loads intelligently and interactively. You'll be able to choose your priorities, whether you want to purchase high cost peak power vs.low cost off peak for a particular load.

A bonus is that distributed power generation and storage is more resilient than the single points of failure presented by large facilities.

[RayJayco]

You could sure put a lot of solar panels on a semi trailer. Cover the roof and sides, coupled with the amount of time that they are on the road with no shade...

[MEXICOWANDERER]

People assume government has all the answers when in truth, when pressed very hard for specifics, administrations like the Brown, administration will splutter "It will all work itself out". This scares me. Let me give you an example...

I had to spend months living in Sonoma County after snapping the end of my forarm bone off at the wrist. Ewwwww. I have 1-1/4 hands dexterity. Tough. It builds character...

But driving through the rural areas I noticed insanely thick areas of Live Oak and madrone. With distribution power lines passing within inches of tree limbs and branches. The utility up there is PG&E.

The place I was holed-up at had a woodstove and no LPG. I went from the city of Santa Rosa to Sonoma County to the state of California division of forestry to the US Forest service. Harvesting of wood from state, and county land was utterly forbidden with draconian fines and jail time. This was in 2011-2012 so it has not been that long ago.

The results of that policy sicken me and I do believe the people that forcibly forged their way to achieve such stupidity should be jailed.

So when the issue of "Nice Dream But How Does It Work" is met with stony silence by the Brown administration I absolutely know the mechanics of the stone wall. They haven't got a clue. Brown will have alzheimer's when the mandate comes due and the youngest batch of this bizarre Franz Kafka nightmare will be out of government and back to overbilling clients.

No one is challenging Brown's MANDATES. These are not ideas or platforms - they are LAWS yet to be enforced. No published studies exist, there are no scenarios and inquiries are utterly ignored or answered with boilerplate legaleeze. "The mandate will achieve a sixty percent reduction of carbon emissions and oxides of Nitrogen"

This is gobbledygook very similar to USSR officials telling residents of Pripyat, their evacuation "is only for a few days because of elevated radiation hazard especially to children".

I do not operate my life on guesswork and NO BAD DAYS self hypnosis. When someone insists something forced upon me is mandatory without options and without a description of implementation my ******** meter needle jams past the peg and busts through the case.

In August I sent from Chula Vista California a return receipt letter POLITELY inquiring WHY a regulation forcing manual battery charger manufacturers to install a timer limiter on battery chargers was not chosen over BANNING manual chargers in favor of automatic chargers that destroy batteries. In October I got their answer. From The State Resources board. A pound and a half of printed rules and regulations about this law and even more absurd considerations. The issue of a timer was absent. Laugh on residents of California YOU from your paycheck helped pay the four dollars and some odd cents postage and some tree gave up it's life and who knows how much in state Salary and benefits were wasted in delivering garbage to me. Fuel was burned ink was used and government budget was consumed.

This and the Sonoma county nightmare is not lost on me. Nor is the attention paid to LOST MARIJUANA CROPS DUE TO FIRE while news of orchards and truck farm obliteration was absent. Read again the stonewall about harvesting impossible to walk through tangles of live oak and madrone. Superb firewood.

And I am supposed to be enthusiastic about NO MORE PETROLEUM MOTOR VEHICLES?

If you get bored about researching this, there is always the nightmare of the great Yellowstone National Park NPS mismanagement in the 1980's that allowed lodgepole pine overgrowth to go up in smoke worth a hundred million dollars.

Environmentalists became wraiths then, just as they are wraiths today in California about woodland management. They have other goals. Take a guess at which one tops the list?

BTW: Debate Rules: When a comment mentions a forum participant rather than an issue they forfeit the argument -- utterly.

[time2roll]

Grid is not static.

[3_tons]

John & Angela wrote:
So it couldn't be something as simple as people just like driving them better. And as far as completely non polluting gas engines, probably best to continue to leave your garage door open when your car is running inside.

And to assume that everybody else is too stupid to figure out that there are challenges is...well...yah...kinda condescending.

Too each his own.

Cheers.

(amended) ....

People MAY like EV’s better, but that doesn’t mean its the best overall solution, or that the grid can support a vast multitude of EV’s....

[John___Angela]

So it couldn't be something as simple as people just like driving them better. And as far as completely non polluting gas engines, probably best to continue to leave your garage door open when your car is running inside.

And to assume that everybody else is too stupid to figure out that there are challenges is...well...yah...kinda condescending.

Too each his own.

Cheers.