Is the EV transformation of the market over hyped ?

[Lessmore]

Interesting article about IC gas and Diesel and Electrical Vehicles. This would also include tow vehicles.


EV vehicles market domination over hyped ?

In some ways I think the manufacturers are giving us mixed messages. GM says that they will introduce about 20 new EV vehicles by 2023, yet on the other hand have just introduced a new 3 liter , 6 cylinder diesel for their 1500 truck series and new..or at least revamped 6.6 liter IC gas engine and 6.6 liter IC Diesel engine for their 2020 HD pickup truck line.

So what gives, as we used to say in high school ?

[pianotuna]

Disruptive technologies, from what I've been able to read, usually have a tipping point at 5%. We are at 2.9 now. I would not be suprized to see 5% quite quickly.

wnjj wrote:
Doubling a percent or two is one thing. The initial adopters quickly fill that first couple percent but after that it will climb much slower. Unlike your penny analogy, it’s not a geometric progression.

[colliehauler]

fj12ryder wrote:

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Yeah, what distances are those Norwegians driving? That's a pretty darned small country. Smaller than California, with probably a lot less highways. Uh yeah, even Kansas has nearly twice the miles of highway as Norway. So let's face it: you just can't drive very darned far in Norway, so range is pretty immaterial.

Norway 16,990 miles, federal data miles of road, Texas 679,917 California 394,383 Illinois 306,614 Kansas 289,948 Minnesota 286,708 Missouri 276,619 the top six for miles of road.

Canada miles of road from Wikipedia 647,700 less then in Texas at 679,917

[Reisender]

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Our EV,s don’t use waste heat so I can’t speak to that but I have heard some do. Don’t know how that works. One of our EV’s has a heat pump which is pretty effective till about minus 5 C. Then the resistance heater kicks in.

I use to program my car for preheat but with my changing schedule it was a pain. Now I just hit preheat on the smart phone app about 5 minutes before I go. Heats up pretty quick. Small cabin. Big heater. Huge improvement over the Grand Cherokee. But our winters are mild and it seldom gets below minus 15 c here. If I was in Lessmores situation I would be driving a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Right tool for the right job.

My son tells me that his Model 3 was water cooled batteries and relies on waste heat for the cabin, at least as long as you are moving at a decent rate. That heat can be supplemented by strips as needed. He also says that Tesla is the only company that uses waste heat. Back during the winter he did a 4 hour drive in 20F weather and only lost about 10% range. His Leaf loses about 30% in the same weather.

Depending on the trim level Leafs come with a heat pump which actually works pretty good down to about minus 5 C. Pretty easy to keep a Leaf warm.

[Reisender]

Grit dog wrote:
Right......there's a market for EVs for sure, and those who say they'll never take over the majority could likely be wrong and those that say they will take over in the near (10-20 years) are also probably wrong.
Consider Groover and shiners posts.
Sure an EV and electric tools works for that guy. With the vehicle, he's the minority and doesn't out drive his range, but has to plan on where to stay for the night. He also only uses the electric tools for a little yard. I couldn't carry an electric chainsaw with a battery big enough to do my yard work. And when I do weed whipping/brush clearing, I go through a couple tanks of gas in a few hours. That would be the equivalent of strapping the battery out of my truck to the weed wacker.
EVs are a great convienence for those that use them within their intended uses. But if the number of EVs increased 10 fold in the next couple years, folks would be lined up for chargers like a gas shortage.
All in due time, but for the moonbeam leaf licker, Birkenstock crowd, I'm sorry, it ain't going to happen quickly.

Agree on most of this post especially the 10 fold in the next few years. For two reasons. Demand which although will continue to increase reasonably fast will not be 10 fold in two years. The second reason is battery capacity is still a challenge. It will grow but not 10 fold in 2 years.

Keep in mind that about 95 percent of charging is done at home so although fast charging infrastructure has to grow there will never be a need for as many charging stations as there is gas stations.

Cheers.

[Groover]

time2roll wrote:
Jaguar uses the waste heat for cabin. I see this a more of an evolution than a revolution. Primarily city people will have a higher take on EVs in the beginning. Long distance travel will be a bit of an adventure for quite some time. Most charging will be at home and long distance travel will still be by jet airplane. I see the market rising to 20%/50% in the next 10 years. May never reach 90% EVs depending on battery technology.

Yes a bit over hyped for now.

Pretty much if you don't have access to SuperChargers you don't go far from home. And you still have to get a Tesla to access SuperChargers. Tesla has offered to share their network with anyone else willing to help bear the cost but no-one else has stepped up so far. I think that is going to be the biggest impediment to EV sales.

[Groover]

fj12ryder wrote:

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Yeah, what distances are those Norwegians driving? That's a pretty darned small country. Smaller than California, with probably a lot less highways. Uh yeah, even Kansas has nearly twice the miles of highway as Norway. So let's face it: you just can't drive very darned far in Norway, so range is pretty immaterial.

They are selling pretty well in Canada too and their is lots of room to roam there along with some very cold weather. The Model 3 outsold the Camry and Accord in 2018.

Canada Model 3 sales 2018

[time2roll]

Jaguar uses the waste heat for cabin. I see this a more of an evolution than a revolution. Primarily city people will have a higher take on EVs in the beginning. Long distance travel will be a bit of an adventure for quite some time. Most charging will be at home and long distance travel will still be by jet airplane. I see the market rising to 20%/50% in the next 10 years. May never reach 90% EVs depending on battery technology.

Yes a bit over hyped for now.

[fj12ryder]

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Yeah, what distances are those Norwegians driving? That's a pretty darned small country. Smaller than California, with probably a lot less highways. Uh yeah, even Kansas has nearly twice the miles of highway as Norway. So let's face it: you just can't drive very darned far in Norway, so range is pretty immaterial.

[Groover]

Reisender wrote:

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Our EV,s don’t use waste heat so I can’t speak to that but I have heard some do. Don’t know how that works. One of our EV’s has a heat pump which is pretty effective till about minus 5 C. Then the resistance heater kicks in.

I use to program my car for preheat but with my changing schedule it was a pain. Now I just hit preheat on the smart phone app about 5 minutes before I go. Heats up pretty quick. Small cabin. Big heater. Huge improvement over the Grand Cherokee. But our winters are mild and it seldom gets below minus 15 c here. If I was in Lessmores situation I would be driving a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Right tool for the right job.

My son tells me that his Model 3 was water cooled batteries and relies on waste heat for the cabin, at least as long as you are moving at a decent rate. That heat can be supplemented by strips as needed. He also says that Tesla is the only company that uses waste heat. Back during the winter he did a 4 hour drive in 20F weather and only lost about 10% range. His Leaf loses about 30% in the same weather.

[Grit_dog]

Right......there's a market for EVs for sure, and those who say they'll never take over the majority could likely be wrong and those that say they will take over in the near (10-20 years) are also probably wrong.
Consider Groover and shiners posts.
Sure an EV and electric tools works for that guy. With the vehicle, he's the minority and doesn't out drive his range, but has to plan on where to stay for the night. He also only uses the electric tools for a little yard. I couldn't carry an electric chainsaw with a battery big enough to do my yard work. And when I do weed whipping/brush clearing, I go through a couple tanks of gas in a few hours. That would be the equivalent of strapping the battery out of my truck to the weed wacker.
EVs are a great convienence for those that use them within their intended uses. But if the number of EVs increased 10 fold in the next couple years, folks would be lined up for chargers like a gas shortage.
All in due time, but for the moonbeam leaf licker, Birkenstock crowd, I'm sorry, it ain't going to happen quickly.

[Reisender]

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

Our EV,s don’t use waste heat so I can’t speak to that but I have heard some do. Don’t know how that works. One of our EV’s has a heat pump which is pretty effective till about minus 5 C. Then the resistance heater kicks in.

I use to program my car for preheat but with my changing schedule it was a pain. Now I just hit preheat on the smart phone app about 5 minutes before I go. Heats up pretty quick. Small cabin. Big heater. Huge improvement over the Grand Cherokee. But our winters are mild and it seldom gets below minus 15 c here. If I was in Lessmores situation I would be driving a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Right tool for the right job.

[Groover]

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

[Lessmore]

pianotuna wrote:
2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:

Pianatuna,

For a guy who lives in Saskatchewan...how is the EV superchargers infrastructure doing, ie; location, availability in rural and urban Saskatchewan?

What about trips from the Alberta border to the Manitoba border, driving in one day, as we do on a regular basis ? Where do you charge an EV ?

We make a trip from Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba about 3 times a year. We went in January/19...it was 31 below in Sk., 33 below in Mb.. We filled up in Regina (gas) then in Mb. (Brandon)...snow, ice...had the heater/defroster on full blast the whole way. We didn't worry about our 'range' with our IC vehicle...how would that work out with an EV...same time, same trip ? We both know, don't we.

In an EV the battery loses significant power due to extreme cold and the cabin heat comes also from the EV battery. How far are you going to get from Regina in -30 C cold...somewhere 30 miles west of Indian Head ? Where are you going to get a supercharge for the battery in some of these stretches ?

I understand (an engineer buddy told me) the Tesla manual indicates you shouldn't live the car outdoors for more than an hour if the outside temps are colder than-22. How will that work out in the prairies and northern states, like Montana, North Dakota, etc. ?

These are questions..the detail questions that need to have answers and be resolved.

[Reisender]

Lynnmor wrote:
Electric vehicles have been around for way over 100 years, how's that doubling production every year working out? :h

What company has had electric vehicles in production for 100 years. Don’t actually know. I thought Nissan was the first modern EV in production. Maybe I’m wrong.

[Reisender]

freddmc wrote:
I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.