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It might begin very soon

4x4ord
Explorer III
Explorer III
Click
2023 F350 SRW Platinum short box 4x4.
B&W Companion
2008 Citation Platinum XL 34.5
70 REPLIES 70

Groover
Explorer II
Explorer II
Terryallan wrote:
What happens when the road isn't where it is supposed to be? Like in a construction zone where the road was moved over a few feet. I know. The car runs into the guard rail. Seen it happen.


Without local augmentation, which is the vast majority of the country, GPS is not accurate to a few feet. Even if it was there are things other than guard rails that move so all self driving cars have methods of detecting these things. Tesla has had a few cases where they failed to properly interpret stationary objects but there are far more cases where they have successfully driven on unmapped roads, just relying on their sensors to find the way.

Tesla and the competition are addressing issues as they come up and are making a lot of progress. My understand is that Tesla has done at least two complete re-writes of their software to address deficiencies in detection. These re-writes have moved them away from being data driven to operating more like humans and using live, real time observations for determining the best path. Unlike humans, they do have radar and other methods of detecting things that cannot be detected visually for even more complete information.

Even though the number of Teslas on the road is increasing rapidly I have not been hearing about FSD failures nearly as often as I used to. It seems to me that they are steadily getting better.

Groover
Explorer II
Explorer II
A lot of comments about potential risks here. I have confidence that just like with the 737MAX, defects will be discovered and dealt with. When that is done all vehicles on the road will get the update and it won't happen again. Unlike human drivers where everyone has to be taught from scratch. Also, if there is a road change the first automated vehicle to encounter it can quickly file a report and notify every other automated vehicle on the road to avoid it. Just yesterday I had to stop, turn around and backtrack with a large heavy trailer because of a poorly marked road closure. That could easily be avoided with automated vehicles. Who knows, we might even be able to get the humans making the changes to post them on a shared data site. Emergency vehicles could broadcast a geofence around themselves and troubled areas.

I like the story a few pages back about the stop sign coming and going. It reminded me of a time when apparently somebody had run over a stop sign. It was a road that I was not very familiar with and I didn't realize that the stop sign was missing until I was blowing through the intersection at 50mph. My wife didn't see a stop sign once due to heavy rain in the dark and did the same thing. Very fortunately, nobody was injured in either incident and vehicle damage was minor though for her it came very close to being much worse. Tesla FSD would have prevented both incidents altogether.

What I am really looking forward to is having the automated vehicles do a lot more of their driving at night to reduce daytime congestion. They can drive around the clock without fatigue to get things where they need to be faster. We won't have acres of trucks idling all night every night to keep a sleeping driver comfortable while consuming fuel and emitting pollution. Heck, we won't even need nearly as many truck stops taking up prime real estate along interstates and won't have nearly as many trucks getting on and off the road for the driver to a leak and get a snack. Automated driving may force us to deal with chronic problems that humans put up with or don't know who to complain to like potholes, ridiculous speed limits and poorly designed intersections. If a truck is involved in an accident it will be well documented as to what happened.

The biggest threat to automated driving is stupid drivers in cars around them or even worse, idiots bullying automated trucks with the knowledge that the trucks will yield to them. Submitted evidence of this behavior should result in traffic tickets being issued to the offending driver. The next big obstacle is how to deal with vehicle failures, like flat tires. It is not widely reported but even John Deere recognizes that tractors need to be equipped with sensors to detect whatever a human drive might, light vibrations, strange noises or smells. It can be dealt with. If it turns into a fire that could be a whole different story but a solution could be found.

All in all though, I see self driving as a tremendous benefit to our society but I don't deny that there will be bugs to work out. The stickiest bugs will be those deliberately caused by humans.

Etstorm
Explorer
Explorer
rhagfo wrote:
BB_TX wrote:
Ultimately they will likely be safer than human driven trucks. Will not get sleepy, distracted, driving while eating, etc. all while following driving rules and speed limits.

pnichols wrote:
Scarry is right!!

Imagine how full of integrated circuits, complex mechanical components, and communications equipment (for Internet and/or satellite connectivity) ... those trucks will be full of. All of that can, and will, fail here and there over time.

I hope that transportation regulations require those trucks to be clearly marked - including distinctive night lighting - so that the rest of us can stay well away from them on the highways.

P.S. Maybe I spent too many years working in the integrated circuits industry and too many hours watching those cable reality shows about big rig accident disasters in Alaska - most which have nothing to do with human error - but can be blamed on 80,000 lbs. of freight inter-acting with the laws of physics.


I worked in the IT sector also, it isn't only hardware, but the software that runs on it.
Too many time in the rush to deploy new programs, there were always a "Work Around" or a situation that wasn't tested.
what happens when the road is snow covered, and the chains required signs are up???


And all of those chips made in China!

Reisender
Nomad
Nomad
Terryallan wrote:
rlw999 wrote:
Terryallan wrote:
What happens when the road isn't where it is supposed to be? Like in a construction zone where the road was moved over a few feet. I know. The car runs into the guard rail. Seen it happen.


Automated vehicles don't blindly follow a pre-mapped route down to the foot, they have cameras, radar and lidar to help them see.


Might want to tell that to Telsa. I saw what happens when in a construction zone where the barrier is moved over 2 feet. Telsa upside down.


Well, Tesla has a level 2 system so if a driver let it drive into a barrier the driver is at fault. A Tesla full self drive system will do exactly that, self drive with human supervision. Having said that it will make some limited efforts to avoid obstacles etc. From experience I can tell you it does not avoid pot holes. Again, level 2, pay attention and follow the direction for its use. Itโ€™s a very nice drivers aid.

Autopilot without FSD is a lane keeping feature, similar to Propilot etc. It may be wrong but I donโ€™t think it even stops at stop lights and stop signs. Not sure, we have the FSD suite so not a 100 percent sure what autopilot does and doesnโ€™t do. I know I let it make all my lane changes as itโ€™s better at checking blind spots than me...although I check anyway.

The new FSD beta is supposed to be amazing, but so far only about a thousand test cars have it. Rumour has it by summer the rest of us will have it.

time2roll
Nomad
Nomad
Terryallan wrote:
Might want to tell that to Telsa. I saw what happens when in a construction zone where the barrier is moved over 2 feet. Telsa upside down.
Picture? Are you certain this was FSD not the preliminary assisted driving?

Terryallan
Explorer II
Explorer II
JIMNLIN wrote:
A trucker drives his rig to either a shipping point or the delivery point. He has to stop at the security gate out front for farther information or get out of his rig, once he is in the yard, and find a receiving/shipping person and get a dock number and a load/unload time. Sometimes the driver is told to leave and come back at another time.
I doubt the warehouse/customer is going to spend millions of bucks setting up a system to handle drivers free trucks.

I can see how a intermodel shipping yard like UP or BNSF could use driver less pony trucks to move containers around in those huge yards.


My Dad drove for Johnson Motor lines out of Charlotte NC. Of course they had terminals all over. In 18 years of driving for them he never had to hunt a dock, or back in. He stopped at the Terminal office, him, and his partner got out, went in and showered while the "yard jocky" took the truck, backed into the dock, unhooked, and hooked up another trailer. Then brought the tractor, and new trailer back to the office. Dad and buddy got back in, and drove back toward home. Johnson wasn't called LAZY J for nothing.

But I do agree with you. No normal freight yard, or produce warehouse is going to have a army of yard jockies. especially since the driver most often has to negotiate with the dock workers a price for unloading the trailer.
Terry & Shay
Coachman Apex 288BH.
2013 F150 XLT Off Road
5.0, 3.73
Lazy Campers

rlw999
Explorer
Explorer
Terryallan wrote:
rlw999 wrote:
Terryallan wrote:
What happens when the road isn't where it is supposed to be? Like in a construction zone where the road was moved over a few feet. I know. The car runs into the guard rail. Seen it happen.


Automated vehicles don't blindly follow a pre-mapped route down to the foot, they have cameras, radar and lidar to help them see.


Might want to tell that to Telsa. I saw what happens when in a construction zone where the barrier is moved over 2 feet. Telsa upside down.


Tesla's "autopilot", despite what their marketing says, is not a self-driving system. It's a driver assistance feature, but the driver still needs to pay attention to the road.

Tesla also saved money by not using LIDAR to detect obstacles, while most of the truck based systems do use it (mostly because a $5000 LIDAR sensor is a lot more affordable on a $200K truck than a $50K car, especially when it's replacing a $75K/year driver)

Terryallan
Explorer II
Explorer II
rlw999 wrote:
Terryallan wrote:
What happens when the road isn't where it is supposed to be? Like in a construction zone where the road was moved over a few feet. I know. The car runs into the guard rail. Seen it happen.


Automated vehicles don't blindly follow a pre-mapped route down to the foot, they have cameras, radar and lidar to help them see.


Might want to tell that to Telsa. I saw what happens when in a construction zone where the barrier is moved over 2 feet. Telsa upside down.
Terry & Shay
Coachman Apex 288BH.
2013 F150 XLT Off Road
5.0, 3.73
Lazy Campers

Reisender
Nomad
Nomad
Terryallan wrote:
What happens when the road isn't where it is supposed to be? Like in a construction zone where the road was moved over a few feet. I know. The car runs into the guard rail. Seen it happen.


The autodrive systems currently being developed like GM supercruise and Tesla autopilot FSD use AI to make some decisions. We have FSD on our Tesla. Not the limited test beta that works in cities (there are less than a 1000 test cars with this test software in it presently) but the standard FSD available on any Tesla as an option. If it is on FSD (full self drive) on a road or highway it watches the lines and makes decisions accordingly. If the lines disappear it try's to do the same thing using the edges of the road. At some point if it can't do that it notifies the driver that he or she must take over immediately. But these are level 2 systems meaning a driver is present and must be able to take over at any time. The Tesla system requires the driver to have a hand on the wheel and actually checks every minute or so.

But for the most part it works pretty good and interventions are seldom. It navigates makes the turns for all the on ramps and off ramps if you have a destination programmed in, makes all the necessary lane changes, stops at all the stop signs and stop lights etc. I find it a little paranoids and slow around crosswalks and bicycles but maybe that is a good thing.

To give you an idea on its AI capabilities, the RV park where we store our class A decided to add some home brew stop signs last year. Basically a stop on a pole on a tire rim. I tend to drive the car with TAC on all the time so just in case I miss a stop sign or stop light the car (who my wife named JARVIS) will see it and stop. Anyway, not expecting a non compliant stop sign on a stick on a curb I would have driven right through this one. But JARVIS saw it and came to a gentle stop. We were yakking and trying to figure out why the car stopped and then saw the sign. Well, at some point later the park took them out because technically they weren't really compliant and people complained. Anyway, for at least the next half dozen times we noticed that JARVIS still slowed down to almost a stop looking for the sign that he knew was there before. He finally adapted and now he doesn't stop anymore.

Here is a picture of that sign.



And this is the display the driver sees if there is a stop sign.



We don't use the summon feature much as it is a little slow, but the times we have used it it works okay. Frankly I can walk faster to the car than summoning the car from the door at Walmart, but the couple times we have used it for kicks it has done okay, backing out of its parking spot, driving up the correct side of the parking lot lane, stopping for pedestrians etc etc. Like I say, we don't use it much. People get freaked out when they see there is no one in the car when its driving around the parking lot.

We do use the autopark in the garage feature when its tight in there because of projects etc. Pull up to the garage door. garage door opens, select autopark, get out of the car, as soon as the car door closes car goes in gear and drives into the garage. It stops and then closes the garage door, I walk in the main house door and don't worry about being able to only open my car door half way in the garage. Easy peasy.

Some manufacturers like Tesla are going real minimalist with their interiours getting people use to not having buttons or knobs to play with. Most everything can be done by voice. I can literally say to the car, "my a$$ is cold" and it turns on my seat heater. I think my wifes car has like two buttons, and both are on the steering wheel. Even the brake pedal rarely gets used as it is pretty much all one pedal driving.



Meet Jarvis. ๐Ÿ™‚



Anyway, I'm sure there will be lots of AI developments in the next few years.

rlw999
Explorer
Explorer
pnichols wrote:


Well ... there is one big and very important difference between a human truck driver and a technology truck driver: A human truck driver has an ultimately selfish reason to not want to get into, or cause, an accident involving what he's riding in. It's called self preservation.


If that were the only motivation that humans have, that might be comforting. But that same driver is also under pressure to get the job done, even if he's tired or feeling ill, maybe he just drank half a bottle of cough medicine to help him finish the run. And when he's approaching his mandatory break, he may feel compelled to drive a little faster so he can get to the depot while he's still legally allowed to drive... or maybe he just wants to get home to his family faster. Driving 10% over the speed limit gets him home an hour earlier on a 10 hour drive.

He's also prone to distraction, perhaps paying more attention to his MP3 player than to the road, or getting into an argument with his wife on the phone. Or maybe he's one of those drivers that thinks he can watch a movie while driving.

And even humans are subject to malfunction, drivers have had accidents during medical incidents. It's much more expensive to have a redundant driver than to build redundancy into control systems.


A self-driving car doesn't need to have a sense of self-preservation, it just needs to know how to stay on the road and avoid obstacles.

time2roll
Nomad
Nomad
Quite the contrary. The truck and software people know it is end of days if the truck does something that seems preventable. These are rational professional people deciding what to program as a group.

On the contrary I have seen many trucks driving needlessly aggressive.

Much lower cost for the automated truck to just pull over in bad weather and wait. Every winter we see groups of big rigs in a big pile up. Why don't they just pull over and wait in the cab for two days? Risks are taken either way.

Grit_dog
Navigator
Navigator
mkirsch wrote:
I place this on my "Things to Worry About and Lose Sleep Over" list just below Murder Hornets.


Best post of the month!!!
2016 Ram 2500, MotorOps.ca EFIlive tuned, 5โ€ turbo back, 6" lift on 37s
2017 Heartland Torque T29 - Sold.
Couple of Arctic Fox TCs - Sold

pnichols
Explorer II
Explorer II
Hammerboy wrote:
pnichols wrote:
Scarry is right!!

Imagine how full of integrated circuits, complex mechanical components, and communications equipment (for Internet and/or satellite connectivity) ... those trucks will be full of. All of tlhat can, and will, fail here and there over time.

I hope that transportation regulations require those trucks to be clearly marked - including distinctive night lighting - so that the rest of us can stay well away from them on the highways.

P.S. Maybe I spent too many years working in the integrated circuits industry and too many hours watching those cable reality shows about big rig accident disasters in Alaska - most which have nothing to do with human error - but can be blamed on 80,000 lbs. of freight inter-acting with the laws of physics.


Someday in the near future we will think it's scary when a human is behind the wheel. "What if the driver falls asleep?" "What if the driver is not paying attention or has a medical problem"

Dan


Well ... there is one big and very important difference between a human truck driver and a technology truck driver: A human truck driver has an ultimately selfish reason to not want to get into, or cause, an accident involving what he's riding in. It's called self preservation.

I don't think a bundle of technology is self-aware enough to be concerned with preserving itself. Software, integrated circuits, engine control modules, accelerometers, braking systems, tire pressure monitoring systems, steering mechanisms, pattern recognition image capture systems, satellite/Internet antennas, etc., etc. ... could care less about what happens to themselves resulting from "not paying attention" or "errors in judgement" that they might make.
2005 E450 Itasca 24V Class C

JIMNLIN
Explorer
Explorer
rlw999 wrote:
JIMNLIN wrote:
I doubt the warehouse/customer is going to spend millions of bucks setting up a system to handle drivers free trucks.


They will when they own the warehouses and the trucks -- like Amazon, Walmart, etc. And when other warehouses have to pay a premium to send a human operated truck to Amazon's warehouses since their drivers get queued up behind a driverlesss truck that doesn't mind waiting for 10 hours to unload, they'll start to make accommodations for the driverless trucks. Which could be as simple as a parking area -- driverless trucks come in an park where it waits for a human driver to take over.

Probably for those mega warehouses .... but not for a small customers with 2-3 docks or no docks at all.
I could see a mega outfit like Walmart/Amazon/etc using driver less trucks running between their large regional warehouses.
I don't see truckers loosing their jobs any time soon.
"good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment" ............ Will Rogers

'03 2500 QC Dodge/Cummins HO 3.73 6 speed manual Jacobs Westach
'97 Park Avanue 28' 5er 11200 two slides

mkirsch
Nomad II
Nomad II
I place this on my "Things to Worry About and Lose Sleep Over" list just below Murder Hornets.

Putting 10-ply tires on half ton trucks since aught-four.