El Nino forecast: Texas Chilly

Buy the latest edition of Trailer life & head south into Mexico. There is a 7 page spread on it in the December edition. Actually it is warmer than normal down there

wildtoad wrote:
Just wait... California will get a large amount of rain due to El Niño and then complain about how much they get. Same happened here last month. My water bill said to conserve water as we were in mild drought conditions. Then we get almost 20 inches of rain, over 30 dams break and we have much more water than we could ever need. Next water bill still says we are in a mild drought.

You are in a mild drought. It takes a long time to come out and getting a lot of rain, all at once, doesn't really help. You need weeks and weeks of drizzle that soaks in, not runs off, to come out of a drought. Keep your fingers crossed that you get lots of soaking storms this winter.

pawatt wrote:
So as I read it, it looks like south Texas and Ariz should be 1 degree below normal? Is that correct? We should be able to survive that?

As I read it, I thought it meant the average for the entire winter.

I bet you're keeping track of how nice it is up in Brainerd this time of year :). Garrison has been plenty warm lately too. I really hope we can keep the weather nice all winter, although I must admit 70's sound a heck of a lot better than 40's for the high.

I am betting on at least 10-12 degrees warmer all winter and Mille Lacs not freezing completely until the 3rd week of December.

All beach and no ocean though. After a short cold snap, back to mid 70's and sunshine. :B

Mid-70's and sun today in Arizona! Ahhhh.....

Just wait... California will get a large amount of rain due to El Niño and then complain about how much they get. Same happened here last month. My water bill said to conserve water as we were in mild drought conditions. Then we get almost 20 inches of rain, over 30 dams break and we have much more water than we could ever need. Next water bill still says we are in a mild drought.

So as I read it, it looks like south Texas and Ariz should be 1 degree below normal? Is that correct? We should be able to survive that?

We had 20*F last night in western Idaho. The central mountains were at -20*F! Snow is desperately needed in our mountains, but it looks like we may be too far north for much of it.

I've been following Joe Bastardi for six years and his forecast have been real close as he's more a weather historian. He has a free Saturday video that will help to explain how it can be cold in the south while it's warmer than normal in the north. Takes more than one Saturday to get a grasp of what's going on.

Below are his two forecasts from April and the updated one in August which is similar to the WX channel's above. For what it's worth, he predicted that Mass would get hammered with snow last winter. Check the Published dates.
4/29/15

Updated 8/27/15

4/29/15

Updated 8/27/15

If we were to take it at face value that graphic makes no sense. You have a subtropical jet stream going west to east, and out of nowhere a cold zone appeared.

Now exactly how does that work. :h