Is this the future for Class A's?

Rick Jay wrote:
Chainwright,

As one of those "Baby Boomers", my comments are that I've seen technology come and go, for a variety of reasons. What was it, about 2010 or so, 3D Televisions were becoming all the rage. People started buying them in droves. Well, try to find one now. Seven years later and the technology is officially dead.

And you can say "Yeah, but this is Tesla, they're too big." Well, Sony, Samsung, LG, etc. who all pushed the 3D sets are also pretty big.

I think electric vehicles will be coming. I don't think it's going to happen as quickly as many think. The electric vehicles need COMMON charging technology and FAST charging, measured on the order of how long it takes to fill a tank with gasoline. Proprietary charging technologies will do nothing to advance the cause. The EV manufacturers need to form a consortium such as was done for USB & MIDI computer interfaces. Get everybody onboard with a standard. If Ford's only worked with Sunoco gasoline and Honda's with Texaco gasoline, can you imagine how that would lessen the appeal of the automobile?

There's a gas station almost on every corner, and even out in the boonies, you can usually get to one within reason. And even if you can't get the vehicle to a gas station, you can bring 5 gallons of gas to the vehicle pretty easily, which will get you moving again. EV charging stations will have to reach that level of market penetration before many feel comfortable purchasing one. They just don't meet the requirements many people need or want in a vehicle.

I'm not saying it won't happen, I just don't see it happening as fast. And, since I'm on the soap box, I think autonomous vehicles will see similar delays.

Yup, I'm a boomer...and I still remember paying over $3,000 for my first IBM PC compatible with DUAL 5 1/4" floppy drives and no Hard drive. The dot matrix printer was another $1000. Ouch. And those were 1985 dollars!!!

So, yeah, some of us "old timers" have played the "bleeding edge technology" game several times over our lives, and we'd rather put our money into things which have a better chance of long-term viability. Gasoline will be around for a long time. But I'm not 100% confident that a battery made for an EV available now will have a replacement available in 10 years. That's important for me as we tend to keep our vehicles 15-20 years, at least.

As an electrical engineer, I enjoy reading about the advancements in this technology, I just don't see it being adopted as quickly as others.

~Rick

where is the "like" button?
bumpy

Chainwright,

As one of those "Baby Boomers", my comments are that I've seen technology come and go, for a variety of reasons. What was it, about 2010 or so, 3D Televisions were becoming all the rage. People started buying them in droves. Well, try to find one now. Seven years later and the technology is officially dead.

And you can say "Yeah, but this is Tesla, they're too big." Well, Sony, Samsung, LG, etc. who all pushed the 3D technology are also pretty big.

I think electric vehicles will continue to have a presence in the market. I just don't think it's going to happen as quickly as many think. The electric vehicles need COMMON charging technology and FAST charging, measured on the order of how long it takes to fill a tank with gasoline. Proprietary charging technologies will do nothing to advance the cause. The EV manufacturers need to form a consortium such as was done for USB & MIDI computer interfaces. Get everybody onboard with a standard. If Ford's only worked with Sunoco gasoline and Honda's with Texaco gasoline, can you imagine how that would lessen the appeal of the automobile?

There's a gas station almost on every corner, and even out in the boonies, you can usually get to one within reason. And even if you can't get the vehicle to a gas station, you can bring 5 gallons of gas to the vehicle pretty easily, which will get you moving again. EV charging stations will have to reach that level of market penetration before many feel comfortable purchasing one. They just don't meet the requirements many people need or want in a vehicle.

I'm not saying it won't happen, I just don't see it happening as fast. And, since I'm on the soap box, I think autonomous vehicles will see similar delays.

Yup, I'm a boomer...and I still remember paying over $3,000 for my first IBM PC compatible with DUAL 5 1/4" floppy drives and no Hard drive. The dot matrix printer was another $1000. Ouch. And those were 1985 dollars!!! (On Edit: I just used an inflation calculator and $4000 in 1985 dollars is equivalent to more $9000 in 2016 dollars. Double OUCH!!!!)

So, yeah, some of us "old timers" have played the "bleeding edge technology" game several times over our lives, and we'd rather put our money into things which have a better chance of long-term viability. Gasoline will be around for a long time. But I'm not 100% confident that a battery made for an EV available now will have a replacement available in 10 years. That's important for me as we tend to keep our vehicles 15-20 years, at least.

As an electrical engineer, I enjoy reading about the advancements in this technology, I just don't see it being adopted as quickly as others.

~Rick

rgatijnet1 wrote:
Don't forget that when it comes to government regulations that affect big rigs and their engines, the RV market is not a concern to anyone. No one asked the RV industry how they felt about DEF. The Prevost type coaches will still be around because the regulations will probably affect buses and they are still built on a modified bus chassis.
The gas coaches will remain as long as the engine manufacturers can make money in markets other than RV's.
In my opinion, Tesla will not try to work out any deal with CG's. Their focus will be on the much larger commercial market.

Initially yes, absolutely. After all it's a business and Tesla's in it to make money, and the commercial transportation industry is where the money is at. That's Tesla's target to make there money back and turn a profit. Once they reach a certain level of comfort other applications will be considered. Sure, in the Auto Industry Class As and Cs are but a speck.
AS for working out deals, Remember that CG's compete among themselves and will do a lot to have an edge. They will seek a deal with tesla or whoever can make a universal megacharger. As you know, Tesla allows everyone to use their patents. There's no doubt in my mind that 4-8 yrs down the road we will have a 37 footer with an electrical chassis, I mean, frightliner already has a hybrid FRED. Most of the pessimists here are the Baby boomers, and maybe I'll be the same way when the Gen Y'ers and Millenials start invading this forum, I hope not though. lol

Chainwright wrote:

John & Angela wrote:

DrewE wrote:
I haven't seen any hard figures on the Tesla truck in terms of battery capacity and the like, but based on some quite rough back-of-the-envelope sorts of computations I think they would need somewhere in the vicinity of 1000 kWh for a 500 mile range in a semi truck (assuming normal highway speeds). Recharging 80% of that (800 kWh) in 40 minutes means that quick charger is supplying about 1.2 megawatts. Even doing it overnight is 100 kW, or about ten 50A RV sockets running at maximum continuous load put together.

(The basis for my estimate was a brake specific fuel consumption of a typical diesel semi truck engine of about 0.3 pounds per horsepower-hour and a typical gas mileage of 7 mpg and a bunch of conversion factors. As this is a very rough estimate, I may be way off, even assuming I did the math more or less properly.)

Widespread usage of electric RVs will require significant upgrades to the electrical infrastructure of campgrounds.

I don't know how much the campgrounds will have to be updated. Maybe a single megacharger in the high end camp grounds. But the RV portion will use the same amount of power as they do now. Most will want to recharge at a Megacharger. We rarely charge our EV toad in a campground. Once in a while a slow overnight trickle charge at 12 amps 120 but when you are talking about 300 to 400 KWH of battery unless you are there for a few days it wouldn't be worth it. Even a 50 amp site will only allow a charge rate of 10 KWH so like a day and a half to charge. I can see special areas with updated infrastructure being designated for this kind of thing. But commercial truck stops will get into the game as well. I think you
will see it overseas before you will here. Modern transportation is not a strong point of North America. A fast train here goes like 90 MPH. In europe 300 to 350 KMH is normal.

JMHO

Also, who's to say the various CG's can't work out a deal with Tesla and acquire Commercial Mega chargers made for CG's, I mean if I was Elon the Business man I wouldn't shy away from that. Eventually, given the market, someone may bring out a Universal Megacharger that can service multiple brands.

Certainly anything is possible. But just to let you know where it currently stands with Tesla and there supercharger network that is now quite extensive. These are by the way max 125 KWh per hour DC fast chargers used for all Tesla cars. So a 300 KWh used in let’s say a smaller motorhome would be about 4 hours to charge (there is some tapering). This network is already in wide usage around the world. But in order for a car to charge on this network it must handshake with the charger. Right now only Tesla’s can do this. Tesla has invited all manufacturers to use the supercharger network but only if the cost share the installation. No other vehicle manufacturer has stepped up to the plate yet. Nissan is putting in a lot of Chademo sites but they are slower than the Tesla sites. I guess my point is, unless the Motorhome integrator uses a Tesla chassis they won’t be able to access either the superchargers or mega chargers. Things can change a lot in the next few years. Sooner or later another car manufacturer will team up with Tesla on this but with the exception of Nissan most want to drag out the movement to EV’s as much as possible. One of the big reasons many choose Tesla is because of the access to the supercharger network. For those of us who don’t travel a lot of long distance trips it doesn’t matter but when we retire that will change and it will be a big influence on what car we choose next. We will have to see how good the public/prívate system is by then. probably four years away.

Mile High wrote:
Sure it could easily be the future for trucks, and probably autonomous as well and easily within my generation.

RVs would be interesting - as their entire independance and self containment relies heavily on the diesel fueled power plants and even diesel heat for sustained stay off the grid. I don't think Solar will ever be capable of replacing that on 100 percent electric units.

I hear and share your concerns. All I can say is that it used to take a computer that took up enough space for 1-2 warehouses to do what a good Lap top does today. A battery rack on the back of one of these tractors or it's chassis might we 9x8ft or 8x15ft today and 1x4 tomorrow (10-30 yrs from now).
I mean I know y'all aren't that old, lol, but remember b4 we had the Wheel? lol. Remember b4 we knew how to make fire? lol

Don't forget that when it comes to government regulations that affect big rigs and their engines, the RV market is not a concern to anyone. No one asked the RV industry how they felt about DEF. The Prevost type coaches will still be around because the regulations will probably affect buses and they are still built on a modified bus chassis.
The gas coaches will remain as long as the engine manufacturers can make money in markets other than RV's.
In my opinion, Tesla will not try to work out any deal with CG's. Their focus will be on the much larger commercial market.

Bumpyroad wrote:

Chainwright wrote:

Chainwright wrote:
Same Negativity, Pessimism and narrow minded speculation as with the Prius and Nissan leaf when they first came out. But look at them now, 1/3 the market is hybrids and EVs. My mother in law is 95. She tells me about all the BS they were talking about the model T when it came out. Look at Ford now. I'm glad so many folks here got it all figured out. With that kind of pessimistic know it all we won't get anywhere. LOL.

Tesla's new Truck:
the specs are:
By itself. 0 - 60 mph in 5 secs
With 80.000 max load trailer 0 -60 in 20 seconds.
65 MPH full rated load at 5 percent grade
500 mile range rated load.
Charges 400 miles in 30 minutes.
1 million mile warranty.
Never needs brake pads.
Available 2019. There are two sizes.
battery pack specs for 400-500 mile range, rough capacity of 1,000 kWh
megachargers will be available adding 400 miles of range on the Tesla Semi in just 30 minutes.
Experts are speculating on a price tag of around $250,000 (slap a cabin on it for $150k and $50k to put the Newmar or Fleetwood or Winnebago name on it and you got a coach for $450K. And if you think $250 is to cheap well hey double it and make it $500K then $200k in additions plus the name, now you got a MH for 750K, still less then a King Aire, Prevost or Newell, just to name a few.)

do you have an app available that shows charging stations for this across the country, how about out in nowheresville Nevada?
but if they can actually build such a thing, why is the battery system not in use for Normal cars etc. NOW which would have to have a 1,000 mile range?
bumpy

The 1st trucks are slated for production in 2019. I'm not Tesla, ask him. Between now and 2019 stuff can happen. I mean the way things are going with N.Korea we could have a Nuclear war in 3 weeks, then all of this won't matter.
Why aren't a lot of things not in use for the normal car? Hint: Big Oil and special interest groups. Remember, new inventions often mean the death of one industry and the creation of another. But if you mess with someones "gravy train" they will put up a fight til the end. You think Corporate America (world) has society's and the poor consumers' best interest at heart?? C'mon now. It's all about $$$$$$

John & Angela wrote:

DrewE wrote:
I haven't seen any hard figures on the Tesla truck in terms of battery capacity and the like, but based on some quite rough back-of-the-envelope sorts of computations I think they would need somewhere in the vicinity of 1000 kWh for a 500 mile range in a semi truck (assuming normal highway speeds). Recharging 80% of that (800 kWh) in 40 minutes means that quick charger is supplying about 1.2 megawatts. Even doing it overnight is 100 kW, or about ten 50A RV sockets running at maximum continuous load put together.

(The basis for my estimate was a brake specific fuel consumption of a typical diesel semi truck engine of about 0.3 pounds per horsepower-hour and a typical gas mileage of 7 mpg and a bunch of conversion factors. As this is a very rough estimate, I may be way off, even assuming I did the math more or less properly.)

Widespread usage of electric RVs will require significant upgrades to the electrical infrastructure of campgrounds.

I don't know how much the campgrounds will have to be updated. Maybe a single megacharger in the high end camp grounds. But the RV portion will use the same amount of power as they do now. Most will want to recharge at a Megacharger. We rarely charge our EV toad in a campground. Once in a while a slow overnight trickle charge at 12 amps 120 but when you are talking about 300 to 400 KWH of battery unless you are there for a few days it wouldn't be worth it. Even a 50 amp site will only allow a charge rate of 10 KWH so like a day and a half to charge. I can see special areas with updated infrastructure being designated for this kind of thing. But commercial truck stops will get into the game as well. I think you
will see it overseas before you will here. Modern transportation is not a strong point of North America. A fast train here goes like 90 MPH. In europe 300 to 350 KMH is normal.

JMHO

Also, who's to say the various CG's can't work out a deal with Tesla and acquire Commercial Mega chargers made for CG's, I mean if I was Elon the Business man I wouldn't shy away from that. Eventually, given the market, someone may bring out a Universal Megacharger that can service multiple brands.

Fleetwood had a hybrid about 10 years ago

Fleetwood

Guess it didn't make too big a splash. I could see the benefit to over the road trucking and the green payoff after a while, but the environmental insult required to battery up something that big would never get paid back in a motorhome.

rgatijnet1 wrote:
I figured that someone would go a diesel/electric hybrid big rig before all electric. Sort of like how trains are powered now.
This is also one of those things that the infrastructure will have to be in place before it catches on with many over the road truckers. Terminal to terminal is one thing but cross country private loads are different.

This is a doable option. Apparently, people have forgotten about the first 3 years of the Prius. We can stop global warming by reducing green house gasses and politician's have our best interests at heart.