Model Year vs Resale Value (all things being equal)

eddie32 wrote:
Effy,

So if I understand correctly, if I buy a 2014 when the 2015s are out, a few years from now, if I wanted to sell, I will get about $10,000 less for a 2014.

The dealers don't appear to be discounting the 2014 Axis by $10,000 more than a 2015. Sounds like no one should buy a "leftover" without a $40% off MSRP discount?

Confused in CT,
Ed

As with all things the example below is just that, an example. If you want to know what a 2014 is selling for, do your due diligence and shop online and make some phone calls and find out a dealers best deal and pit deals against one another. What you see on a dealers site without calling is the advertised price not the sale price. Also the numbers in the deprecation are based on used values not new. A leftover 2014 is not depreciated like one that has left the lot, so the selling price is not equal to the depreciation. it's still new, they just need to get rid of it so they dig a little deeper. Still it will be cheaper than a comparable 2015, that's just common sense. How much really depends on a lot of things - dealer inventory, demand etc. But it won't be discounted like it's used. Depreciation catches up faster as it's "last year's" model, but you paid less to compensate so your loss is less.

I am not certain I understand your question. When are you buying? Now or in a few years? If you buy now the 2014 should be cheaper. No incentive to get it off the dealers lot if it isn’t. It will depreciate based on the rate below (as a guide) relative to the model year and when you bought it. If John Doe buys the 2015 he'll pay a little more, but the rate of depreciation is the same based on model year. He'll be a year behind you. To summarize, the 2014 will be cheaper off the lot if it's new and all things equal. in 3 years the same model 2014 will be worth less than the 2015 but both with have depreciated respectively.

Perhaps I am not grasping what it is you are looking for. You won't get a hard and fast number what either will be worth in a few years because I left my crystal ball in my other pants. But Depreciation is pretty standard as a generalization.

Effy,

So if I understand correctly, if I buy a 2014 when the 2015s are out, a few years from now, if I wanted to sell, I will get about $10,000 less for a 2014.

The dealers don't appear to be discounting the 2014 Axis by $10,000 more than a 2015. Sounds like no one should buy a "leftover" without a $40% off MSRP discount?

Confused in CT,
Ed

Went to nadaguides, picked a similar unit (ACE 29.2), same mileage (20000)..... results:

ACE 29.2 14 13 12 11
msrp $101,528 $100,090 $90,053 $89,993

avg ret $79,841 $69,990 $64,731 $59,513
78.64% 69.93% 71.88% 66.13%

low ret 66270 58090 54399 49399
65.27% 58.04% 60.41% 54.89%

So, the unit would appear to be worth (low retail) about 55% after 4 years?

Another thought... if the Hershey show is used to intro the new models, why is the 2015 Axis/Vegas already out and available?

Ed

Depreciation is static. The models depreciate at the same rate just at different starting points based on year. You can expect to negotiate about 30% off MSRP. Starting with MSRP the depreciation is 30% driving it off the lot, another 10% at the end of the first year, and 6% for each year following. After that this is a decent guide.

YEAR DEPRECIATION VALUE
1 18% 65,6000
2 10% 57,600
3 7% 52,000
4 6% 47,200
5 6% 42,400
6 5% 38,400
7 5% 34,400
8 4% 31,200
9 4% 28,000
10 3% 25,600
11 3% 23,200
12 2% 21,600
13 2% 20,000

Look at nadaguides.com and compare the prices for the same motor home a year apart. It show give you an idea the difference you can expect down the line.

I've been in the RV biz 36years and I don't think the price of fuel discussion is at all relevant. A few weeks after I started in 1978 a couple of the veterans of the RV business pulled me aside and told me that I should never think of selling RV's as career. They thought that there were two things upcoming that would destroy the RV business. One was dollar a gallon gas, that would kill it dead and if that didn't do it trailers selling for more than 20 grand certainly would. It's now 2014 and I'm having my best year in the last 10 and probably one of the best ever. Buy what you want, when you want. Screw the experts!

just check out a dealer's blue/yellow/green book on 2 and 3 year old units to see what the difference is.
bumpy

You may also want to factor in the price of gas 2,3 or 4 years from now.
That may hurt the resale value.

Why not buy a used unit? Let someone else take a beating on the initial depreciation.

It seems to me that the instant you drive off the lot the rig is used.
30% down the tubes the first year.

That is the deciding factor.

If the two unigs are both new, then the 2015 may well have ahigher price as costs to build rise in a year, or the two units may not have identical eqipment.