JimK-NY wrote:
rexlion wrote:
CBS just showed a guy who died, not from the virus, but because of his heart, after his elective heart surgery was canceled. If we hadn't reacted so strongly to the virus, he might be alive now instead.
People forget about 'the law of unintended consequences.'
Unintended consequences of what? In the NY State the hospitals are filling up. Patients with Covid are not receiving any care unless there symptoms are severe. In fact patients cannot even get tested without severe symptoms. They are being told to return home and self isolate. Patients with other conditions are indeed also only getting care when the needs are immediate.
So what is the solution? Just send all Covid patients home and let them take their chances. Without vents and intensive care, we know the results. The death rate will be in the range of 5%. With no controls and no care that would mean 5 million agonizing deaths in the US.
"5 million agonizing deaths" is such an exaggeration, it's amazing anyone would say it. That estimate came from Ferguson of Imperial College back in, oh, early February I think, and it was based on bad assumptions. One of those assumptions was, they didn't include
any mitigation steps whatsoever. Another bad assumption was the incorrect numbers they input from China. Oxford University's estimates and Stanford's estimates are way, way lower.... 120,000 deaths or less in the US, IIRC.
Sure, that guy with the heart problem was just one guy. But we simply can't estimate the number of people whose lives will be lost (or ruined) due to a prolonged shutdown. There's the postponed surgeries, the increase in crime victims, the increase in suicides, the people harmed through malnutrition when food supplies become scarce, and on and on. But be assured, there will be collateral damage and the longer the shutdown the worse that damage will be.
We already have farmers in the south who don't know how they'll find laborers to pick their berries or vegetables that will ripen in the next month. China's production of drugs, and the packaging materials to put them in, is way behind normal and we depend on them for tons of stuff nowadays. There are probably dozens of similar things I haven't even thought of. If we don't all get back to work soon, life might look very different for months or years to come.