And Texas Caves In

pianotuna wrote:
It is true, however, that Singapore is now having a "2nd wave" of infections after stopping extreme self isolation, so they are having to return to those policies.

As no one has found an effective treatment, we are left with just two options.

1. herd immunity, without a vaccine, may start having an effect at 60% of folks infected. The ugly part of that is 336 M x .6 =~ 202 M cases X 3.4% (taken by dividing today's case count into today's deaths)=~6.8 M deaths.

2. a working vaccine. There are 2 candidates in emergency human trials. Cross your fingers and toes.

You assume all 336M people get infected? Don't think there is any basis for that assumption, which makes your math exercise useless.

Mike

pianotuna wrote:
It is true, however, that Singapore is now having a "2nd wave" of infections after stopping extreme self isolation, so they are having to return to those policies.

As no one has found an effective treatment, we are left with just two options.

1. herd immunity, without a vaccine, may start having an effect at 60% of folks infected. The ugly part of that is 336 M x .6 =~ 202 M cases X 3.4% (taken by dividing today's case count into today's deaths)=~6.8 M deaths.

2. a working vaccine. There are 2 candidates in emergency human trials. Cross your fingers and toes.

Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19. Never does an entire population (100%) come down with any particular disease; 15% is much more common. Even with Covid-19, coronaviruses have been around for quite some time so anyone who's had one will most likely possess partial immunity to Covid-19; this is one reason why the vast majority of those who contract the virus have only moderate, mild, or no symptoms. Case fatality rates like the 3.4% vary wildly from day to day as well as from locale to locale; they are the absolute worst number to extrapolate anything from statistically.

It's very easy to panic. I understand that. Everyone should take a deep breath.... hold... and let it out slowly. Try to calm down.

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tommyznr wrote:

pianotuna wrote:
Much to my horror I just learned that Canada has done more testing than USA. I consider the testing in Canada to be far too low.

That means that the data sets on numbers of infections are more or less a fairy tale, and those numbers are already horrendous to me with a death count at over 18000.

I hope to heck I am totally wrong.

You can play with the data here

Canada daily tests/1000 = .38, US =.42
Canada total tests/day = 162,258, US = 225,890
Canada total test = 359,269, US = 2.36 million
Canada total tests/1000 = 9.98 US = 7.12

Hopefully I got that right for today's numbers.

So, your statement could be technically correct in one way to look at the data.

There is an excellent explanation on how the case fatality rate is calculated and how that number cannot be used to extrapolate future death rates etc.

Interesting reading, but I do tend to raise my eyebrows about their assumptions on rate of growth. They don't seem to take into account when figuring rate of growth, that they also have to factor in the rate of testing done. As the rate of testing increases, the rate of positive tests will also increase, probably in direct proportion.

It seems like that if large scale testing was done earlier, the number of positive cases would be much higher, thus showing a different rate of growth. Nobody was testing in January and February, then a huge rise in testing in late March as tests became more widely available, so yeah, there should be a correspondingly huge rise in positive tests. And I believe they're not testing non-respiratory cases.

fj12ryder wrote:

rltorpey wrote:
The best defense against a Pandemic is to be basically healthy and to have a strong immune system. There are a lot of pathogens in the environment and you can't live in a bubble forever. SARS-CoV2, influenza, MRSA, rhinoviruses, noroviruses. Chances are good that you're going to be exposed and your best defense is to be healthy in the first place and to have a strong immune system that can fight off the disease.

Stay fit by exercising regularly, eat a mostly healthy diet, try to get enough sleep, find a way to relieve stress other than eating (exercise helps), don't smoke. It's really pretty simple.

We transport a lot of patients who are my age and younger who are in terrible health and it's often due to lifestyle choices. These people are high risk not just to Covid 19 but also to influenza, coronary artery disease, diabetes, stroke, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. Many of our patients now are so obese that we have to call the fire department for lift assist because 2 of us can't lift them into the ambulance.

We could blame the healthcare system but at some point it comes down to each of us being responsible for our own health and not letting ourselves become a burden on the healthcare system and a burden on society. There will always be patients who struggle with diseases that are beyond their control. Type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis, many forms of cancer. Those people all have my deepest sympathy and I am honored to be able to assist them. But we have way too many people in this country who have serious health problems that are the result of poor lifestyle choices. I'm happy to assist them, too, but I wish they would start doing some of the things that they could do to help themselves.

It would be great if all that you said would hold true, but it doesn't always work that way. When the "Spanish Flu" hit in the early part of the 20th century, the highest death rate was among the young, and the healthy. It appeared that the disease actually caused the bodies' immune system to attack itself.

While I agree that healthy is better, it is no silver bullet. I have a friend who was a bicycle racer, inline skates enthusiast, and in excellent physical shape, but was sidelined by a heart attack while out on a bike ride. That was a few years ago when he was in his 40's. Jim Fixx, an avid runner, and arguably the moving force behind the running fad in the 80's, died at a relatively young age, with a heart attack.

Nature vs nurture. Tough call, but you got to do what you can.

Sometimes IMHO "young and in shape" may not be all that it seems. It may not mean those class of folks are "healthy" just because they're not overweight and move around a lot.

I once read an article that has really stuck in my mind: The author stated that the best way to insure that one is healthy, and stays that way, is by the continual monitoring of one's blood chemistry and continually adjusting one's exercise and food so as to maintain their ideal chemistry profile between blood tests. I believe that the author had a complete blood workup every 6 months and would make lifestyle adjustments based on any factors changing too much, or any factors that were out of range.

Maybe - in America at least - young is not always healthy and/or fit ... regardless of their seemingly good body weight index and amount of repetitive body movements. :h

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way2roll wrote:

westernrvparkowner wrote:

way2roll wrote:
Still waiting on Dallas Steve's evidence of the economy being ruined for his grand kids as a result of COVID actions. I asked before and never saw anything. Maybe I missed it.

Don't know about Dallas Steve's grandkids, but Oxfam International, a major charity estimates that COVID-19 may force 500 million people into poverty. There is a major concern that school closures are having a detrimental effect on the health of the very poor since school meal programs have been interrupted. Today there are several stories of how some food banks are being over-run by needy families. The economic impact is much greater than a few percentage points of decline in the stock market. Real people will suffer.

Totally agree, this is going to have tremendous economic impact for sure. Not sure it will extend to our grand kids however. Of course that's a fairly loose claim, your grand kids could be alive today..

My Grand Daughter is 21. My two grandsons are 16. It has already extended to them.

Mike

pianotuna wrote:
Much to my horror I just learned that Canada has done more testing than USA. I consider the testing in Canada to be far too low.

That means that the data sets on numbers of infections are more or less a fairy tale, and those numbers are already horrendous to me with a death count at over 18000.

I hope to heck I am totally wrong.

You can play with the data here

Canada daily tests/1000 = .38, US =.42
Canada total tests/day = 162,258, US = 225,890
Canada total test = 359,269, US = 2.36 million
Canada total tests/1000 = 9.98 US = 7.12

Hopefully I got that right for today's numbers.

So, your statement could be technically correct in one way to look at the data.

There is an excellent explanation on how the case fatality rate is calculated and how that number cannot be used to extrapolate future death rates etc.

The other 34% are ugly or stupid.

NJRVer wrote:

pnichols wrote:

rltorpey wrote:
The best defense against a Pandemic is to be basically healthy and to have a strong immune system. There are a lot of pathogens in the environment and you can't live in a bubble forever. SARS-CoV2, influenza, MRSA, rhinoviruses, noroviruses. Chances are good that you're going to be exposed and your best defense is to be healthy in the first place and to have a strong immune system that can fight off the disease.

Stay fit by exercising regularly, eat a mostly healthy diet, try to get enough sleep, find a way to relieve stress other than eating (exercise helps), don't smoke. It's really pretty simple.

We transport a lot of patients who are my age and younger who are in terrible health and it's often due to lifestyle choices. These people are high risk not just to Covid 19 but also to influenza, coronary artery disease, diabetes, stroke, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. Many of our patients now are so obese that we have to call the fire department for lift assist because 2 of us can't lift them into the ambulance.

We could blame the healthcare system but at some point it comes down to each of us being responsible for our own health and not letting ourselves become a burden on the healthcare system and a burden on society. There will always be patients who struggle with diseases that are beyond their control. Type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis, many forms of cancer. Those people all have my deepest sympathy and I am honored to be able to assist them. But we have way too many people in this country who have serious health problems that are the result of poor lifestyle choices. I'm happy to assist them, too, but I wish they would start doing some of the things that they could do to help themselves.

You're right on the money with this ... well stated indeed!!!!!

Of course across-the-board lifestyle improvements like you describe - if made by the bulk of the human race - would make us close to a super-race.

We haved looked the enemy in the face ... and it is partially us.

Sure, in a perfect world.

66% of the current population in the US is classified as overweight or obese.

That would translate into a whole lot of dead people.