coronavirus...put it into perspective

I wrote the following elsewhere but I think it would be educational to put it here to clarify the issue at hand:-

I had a long and very informative conversation with my doctor who I have known for about 20 years. His biggest bug is that his elderly parents, (he's about my age), only came here from India to live with him 2 months ago and he's in a high risk profession.

He explained a lot about this virus and why it's different from the flu and stuff like swine flu and why it's more dangerous. It goes something like this... Flu, (we'll just use this word for any influenza ie: bird, swine etc. ), usually displays it's symptoms 24-36 hours after infection and, as a result, a single infected person on average infects 1.2 other people. Covid19 hides for between 3 and 12 days showing no symptoms in the infected individual all the while being infectious. This causes a single individual to infect not 1.2 others but rather 2.2 - 4.0 others.

The other key piece of information he passed on was that neither flu nor Covid19 have killed anyone, period. But the difference between the two is that in those that are compromised by age or infirmity get bacterial pneumonia from the flu which is treatable with antibiotics but those who get Covid19 while compromised get viral pneumonia which, to date, there is no cure which is what puts up the mortality rate.

He also pointed out that since it's inception in early December 2019 the virus has mutated once already. If I remember the letters, it was at version L which allowed it to move from animals to humans but not from human to human but it mutated to M which allowed human to human transmission and that as long as it stays as it is we get a chance to fight it. I pointed out that it's next mutation is not the result of a sentient being trying to improve itself so it could equally easily harm itself in humans but I accept the fact that the "successful" organism tends to survive. He agreed... It also might not mutate because it has reached it's "pinnacle"... But that is unlikely...

He says that right now in the USA we have only really identified 10% of the actually infected population and that the numbers will rise exponentially in the next two weeks. The entire current strategy of social distancing or quarantine is designed to reduce the pressure on the health care systems of all countries because if they cannot properly treat then the virus becomes more rampant.

So my takeaways from the conversation were that the actual numbers are behind, (sometimes way behind), the actual infection rate. That in order to actually kill the virus, absent a totally "killer" cure" will take at least 2 years assuming no detrimental mutations - this doesn't mean 2 years of home quarantine and that which would come from such impossibility but that the virus will live in and threaten the compromised population for a couple of years. If it mutates like the flu then we'll really need a flu shot and CovidX shot annually. He thinks that the threat is very real because so many people are compromised in many ways nowadays, (in history they would already be dead but for the better healthcare), so if it grips the deaths will be high... He laughed when I pointed out that we can stop worrying about overpopulation... :-D Oh, and he said I'm healthy enough not to worry about the virus... I'll get it, defeat it and move on without the subsequent viral pneumonia...

I hope that sheds some light for some.

Just to note: I am not one who is particularly concerned and have always been well prepared for "odd" events... My biggest concern is my stubborn 89 year old dad alone in his home in the UK...