What does 10 TRILLION gallons of water even equate to?
That's one weather prediction for southern California in the next week. Gary Haupt
Forum Discussion
Looking at the historical rainfall totals, for SoCal in particular, yields some interesting results.
First, there is a wet dry cycle, it is fairly regular, and has not increased in duration or intensity in recent years.
Second, the swings in the data from wet to dry are fairly large. When you average it you get a nice number, LA being 14.77 inches a year. But very rarely do we actually have an "average" year. We get a year way above the calculated average and then many years somewhat below average. Historically, this cycle has repeated itself over and over again.
The biggest change is the population. The current storage and transport system was adequate for the population as it was being built in the 60s and 70s. The storage and delivery system was designed to get the state through the standard 6-8 years of dry and be refilled during the wet year. The population in 1970 was about 20 million. It is now double that with the last reservoir being put into service in 1979. The result is we have a fixed storage capacity which did not anticipate the population boom, nor the agriculture boom. It is now drained much faster during the dry years. As the population has grown, we have not upped our storage capacity to capture what falls in the wet year. We have managed to make the existing capacity work with conservation, and pulled water from the ground to make up the difference, but this last wet dry cycle has brought to bear the limits of supply for todays population. It is not so much a case of extended drought, CA has always had these, it is a case of more people using the resource.
So in the span of 3 months, our reservoirs went from nearly empty to overflowing, the snow pack is way above average, some of the excess is soaking into the aquifer, and the rest is flowing to the ocean. In the span of 3 months, we have topped off all of our storage capacity. Unfortunately, it is the same capacity that was filled in 2005 and mostly refilled in 2011, but we have more people than ever. Unless additional storage is built, the increasing population in CA will necessitate even more alternative and severe measures to make it through the dry part of the cycle.
There are a lot of politics involved, particularly in CA, with getting any large project such as a reservoir done. There is also a lot of politics with regards to control, and not giving the public all the information. I kept hearing about the drought, and seeing pictures of the existing reservoirs near empty, but I never saw anything showing the real issue of total storage capacity vs population and how many dry years the supply would last given a certain population and usage rate, nor the fact that 6-8 dry years between wet years is pretty typical (even though this data is readily available) Never let a disaster go to waste, we have added laws and policies due to the drought without explaining to the general population why there is a resource shortage. There is also a significant short sightedness in our state government. I am hoping this last cycle will serve as a wakeup cal.
Just to add to the other aspect of this thread, I believe there should be a balance between regulation and resource usage. While I am not entirely convinced as to the magnitude of man's impact on a global scale, there is certainly an impact on local scales. I grew in the high desert about 75mi from Los Angeles. I remember regularly seeing on the news or when visiting family the smog so thick you could not see the skyline. The smog regularly crept over the mountains and spilled into the high desert and we would have smog days. Now there are many more people and many more cars in LA, but those smog days are a thing of the past, very very rarely is smog even mentioned anymore and only once in a great while with just the wrong conditions do we have a smog warning. I for one am glad I can't see the air I am breathing anymore.
First, there is a wet dry cycle, it is fairly regular, and has not increased in duration or intensity in recent years.
Second, the swings in the data from wet to dry are fairly large. When you average it you get a nice number, LA being 14.77 inches a year. But very rarely do we actually have an "average" year. We get a year way above the calculated average and then many years somewhat below average. Historically, this cycle has repeated itself over and over again.
The biggest change is the population. The current storage and transport system was adequate for the population as it was being built in the 60s and 70s. The storage and delivery system was designed to get the state through the standard 6-8 years of dry and be refilled during the wet year. The population in 1970 was about 20 million. It is now double that with the last reservoir being put into service in 1979. The result is we have a fixed storage capacity which did not anticipate the population boom, nor the agriculture boom. It is now drained much faster during the dry years. As the population has grown, we have not upped our storage capacity to capture what falls in the wet year. We have managed to make the existing capacity work with conservation, and pulled water from the ground to make up the difference, but this last wet dry cycle has brought to bear the limits of supply for todays population. It is not so much a case of extended drought, CA has always had these, it is a case of more people using the resource.
So in the span of 3 months, our reservoirs went from nearly empty to overflowing, the snow pack is way above average, some of the excess is soaking into the aquifer, and the rest is flowing to the ocean. In the span of 3 months, we have topped off all of our storage capacity. Unfortunately, it is the same capacity that was filled in 2005 and mostly refilled in 2011, but we have more people than ever. Unless additional storage is built, the increasing population in CA will necessitate even more alternative and severe measures to make it through the dry part of the cycle.
There are a lot of politics involved, particularly in CA, with getting any large project such as a reservoir done. There is also a lot of politics with regards to control, and not giving the public all the information. I kept hearing about the drought, and seeing pictures of the existing reservoirs near empty, but I never saw anything showing the real issue of total storage capacity vs population and how many dry years the supply would last given a certain population and usage rate, nor the fact that 6-8 dry years between wet years is pretty typical (even though this data is readily available) Never let a disaster go to waste, we have added laws and policies due to the drought without explaining to the general population why there is a resource shortage. There is also a significant short sightedness in our state government. I am hoping this last cycle will serve as a wakeup cal.
Just to add to the other aspect of this thread, I believe there should be a balance between regulation and resource usage. While I am not entirely convinced as to the magnitude of man's impact on a global scale, there is certainly an impact on local scales. I grew in the high desert about 75mi from Los Angeles. I remember regularly seeing on the news or when visiting family the smog so thick you could not see the skyline. The smog regularly crept over the mountains and spilled into the high desert and we would have smog days. Now there are many more people and many more cars in LA, but those smog days are a thing of the past, very very rarely is smog even mentioned anymore and only once in a great while with just the wrong conditions do we have a smog warning. I for one am glad I can't see the air I am breathing anymore.
