Cruise testing, I would be uncomfortable

mich800 wrote:

Reisender wrote:

mich800 wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

That is a huge assumption on insurance with no facts or data to suggest that would happen. You also assume 100% of vehicle sales are self driving for your time estimate.

Can’t speak for other insurance companies but as of last year when sitting down with an insurance agent one of the first things they ask us wether the car has a driver assist systym like propilot or autopilot. Rates are lower if you do.

And??? Did they say rates were 10x higher if you didn't have lane assist? Discounts for passive safety, alarms, etc have been in place forever. I don't know your age but maybe you are too young that you never encountered these questions obtaining insurance.

Nope. They just asked about driver assist. I wasn’t sure what she meant so she named off a couple systems two of which I remember. Propilot and Autopilot.

I believe our highways will run faster and smoother once we have 10% to 20% automation.
Even smart cruise control that many cars have today could really help if people would use it.

Reisender wrote:

mich800 wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

That is a huge assumption on insurance with no facts or data to suggest that would happen. You also assume 100% of vehicle sales are self driving for your time estimate.

Can’t speak for other insurance companies but as of last year when sitting down with an insurance agent one of the first things they ask us wether the car has a driver assist systym like propilot or autopilot. Rates are lower if you do.

And??? Did they say rates were 10x higher if you didn't have lane assist? Discounts for passive safety, alarms, etc have been in place forever. I don't know your age but maybe you are too young that you never encountered these questions obtaining insurance.

Reisender wrote:

mich800 wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

That is a huge assumption on insurance with no facts or data to suggest that would happen. You also assume 100% of vehicle sales are self driving for your time estimate.

Can’t speak for other insurance companies but as of last year when sitting down with an insurance agent one of the first things they ask us wether the car has a driver assist systym like propilot or autopilot. Rates are lower if you do.

My insurance doesn't ask me any questions except for how many miles I drive a year, whether for pleasure or work, what type coverage I want, my age and the vin number. The vin number tells them exactly what the car is and what options it has and the premium is decided from this information.

mich800 wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

That is a huge assumption on insurance with no facts or data to suggest that would happen. You also assume 100% of vehicle sales are self driving for your time estimate.

Can’t speak for other insurance companies but as of last year when sitting down with an insurance agent one of the first things they ask us wether the car has a driver assist systym like propilot or autopilot. Rates are lower if you do.

valhalla360 wrote:

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

That is a huge assumption on insurance with no facts or data to suggest that would happen. You also assume 100% of vehicle sales are self driving for your time estimate.

mich800 wrote:

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

Once it becomes standard, it will take about 20yrs for the vast majority off the existing fleet to be in the junk yard.

At some point though, you can expect insurance for non-self driving cars to be so high that for all practical purposes, you can't afford to drive yourself.

mich800 wrote:

2oldman wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:
Obviously, it would need to be a couple generations into adoption, so human driven cars are essentially eliminated from the roadways.

It takes that long for doubting Thomases to die off.

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

It's only been 112 years since the Model T, and far fewer than that since the car became a general household item - and car tech and expectation has changed dramatically in that time. A 'couple generations' could mean 50-75 years. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that human-operated cars could be a collector's item by the end of this century.

2oldman wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:
Obviously, it would need to be a couple generations into adoption, so human driven cars are essentially eliminated from the roadways.

It takes that long for doubting Thomases to die off.

So you anticipate nearly 300 million vehicles to just disappear? And that is assuming fully autonomous vehicles will be the norm not the exception in the next couple decades.

Not to mention it would take 16 years at current annual sales to replace all vehicles and that is if 100% of all vehicle sales were fully autonomous every year.

valhalla360 wrote:
Obviously, it would need to be a couple generations into adoption, so human driven cars are essentially eliminated from the roadways.

It takes that long for doubting Thomases to die off.