Forum Discussion
BenK
Jun 25, 2018Explorer
There is much, much, much more to it than just moving away from cars...and part of my consulting's research is driven by clients asking about traffic, traffic and commute by their new employees here in The SF Bayarea...Demographics of The Cycle of Life...
This is a good starter for those interested and the rest a bit long winded...but germane to this discussion. Am sure some of it is in the backgrounder info leading up to Ford's decision...
Don Weden- Cities for all ages..The Silver Tsunami
Don Weden is a local retired city senior planner. We discuss this stuff often. I call this all "The Cycle of Life" for all my presentations. A few years old, but still applies and will continue to apply well after the last Boomer dies off...to be replaced by the Gen X'ers, etc in this Cycle of Life
Note that since Don's presentation is a few years old...the numbers are likewise old. The numbers of youngsters without 'cars' has grown.
It is now okay to admit to taking public transit to work, bicycle to work, walk to work.
TOD and designated high density areas/zones/etc are becoming better understood by The Boomers, who resist any change to their idyllic life style...AKA stuck in the Nixon Era...AKA the last century..AKA 20th Century where cars were king and EVERYTHING was architected to accommodate cars over pedestrians/bicyclists and public transit
As the boomers die off...'some' of the Gen X & Millennial's will by then be able to afford R1's (single family homes). Moving from their high density apartments to R1's vacated by boomers (by death or retire or whatever had them move...see Weden's video). That little old lady (sorry, us guys die off sooner than gals) will then move into the apartment vacated by the kids
The kids hated being forced to mow the lawn, wash/wax the car, paint the fence/house, etc, etc...until they start a family and consiider (if they can afford it) buying or moving to an R1. Because the apartment is not big enough and they want to play ball with their kid out on the backyard lawn...to 'teach' their kid to mow the lawn, wash/wax the car, paint the fence/house, etc, etc...
We are returning back to a renters society. Gen X, Millennial's, etc generally can NOT afford home owhership, nor does their life style, at this time in their lives, make an R1 desirable or wanted. Too many have $100K, $200K or more student loans...that are now of higher interest *AND* compounded vs when my generation applied for student loans
WWII accelerated the move to R1's with the GI Bills. Low, simple interest for 'student loans', 'home purchase', etc. The Suburbs was born and accerlated. Their architecture and the rest of society dictated the need for a car to do anything...and...that architecture continues to this day. A slow change is in the works and "Vision Zero" and "Form Based Codes" are the main metrics of which cities are making that change from an LOS based society to a VMT society...
LOS..."Level of Service" in the design of everything for cars as the #1 priority....VMT..."Vehicle Miles Traveled" changing the way we architect our cities to REDUCE vehicle miles traveled. That has one trip to an area that has work, shopping, schools, social amenities, etc. Then drive back home...or better yet, bedrooms in that same area...so no car is necessary
Back to the video, pay attention to the charts and numbers. They young are moving away from cars... Uber, Lyft, Autonomous cars, POD cars, etc are around the corner and driven mostly by the young
Here is another video put on my my city and am a committee member. Supplements the previous video
January 2014 - Taste and Talk Series - Sex, Neuroscience and Walkable Communities
So, think Ford is ahead of the curve...that will temporally leave a hole for the other auto OEMs to backfill...but that is just IMHO...
There will ALWAYS be a need for cars, trucks, etc...just not in the numbers we used to demand...
Finally...most of these metrics are for urban areas. Rural areas will continue to require cars...but...am seeing more and more 'small town USA' are seeing the need to instill TOD and High Density areas
This is a good starter for those interested and the rest a bit long winded...but germane to this discussion. Am sure some of it is in the backgrounder info leading up to Ford's decision...
Don Weden- Cities for all ages..The Silver Tsunami
Don Weden is a local retired city senior planner. We discuss this stuff often. I call this all "The Cycle of Life" for all my presentations. A few years old, but still applies and will continue to apply well after the last Boomer dies off...to be replaced by the Gen X'ers, etc in this Cycle of Life
Note that since Don's presentation is a few years old...the numbers are likewise old. The numbers of youngsters without 'cars' has grown.
It is now okay to admit to taking public transit to work, bicycle to work, walk to work.
TOD and designated high density areas/zones/etc are becoming better understood by The Boomers, who resist any change to their idyllic life style...AKA stuck in the Nixon Era...AKA the last century..AKA 20th Century where cars were king and EVERYTHING was architected to accommodate cars over pedestrians/bicyclists and public transit
As the boomers die off...'some' of the Gen X & Millennial's will by then be able to afford R1's (single family homes). Moving from their high density apartments to R1's vacated by boomers (by death or retire or whatever had them move...see Weden's video). That little old lady (sorry, us guys die off sooner than gals) will then move into the apartment vacated by the kids
The kids hated being forced to mow the lawn, wash/wax the car, paint the fence/house, etc, etc...until they start a family and consiider (if they can afford it) buying or moving to an R1. Because the apartment is not big enough and they want to play ball with their kid out on the backyard lawn...to 'teach' their kid to mow the lawn, wash/wax the car, paint the fence/house, etc, etc...
We are returning back to a renters society. Gen X, Millennial's, etc generally can NOT afford home owhership, nor does their life style, at this time in their lives, make an R1 desirable or wanted. Too many have $100K, $200K or more student loans...that are now of higher interest *AND* compounded vs when my generation applied for student loans
WWII accelerated the move to R1's with the GI Bills. Low, simple interest for 'student loans', 'home purchase', etc. The Suburbs was born and accerlated. Their architecture and the rest of society dictated the need for a car to do anything...and...that architecture continues to this day. A slow change is in the works and "Vision Zero" and "Form Based Codes" are the main metrics of which cities are making that change from an LOS based society to a VMT society...
LOS..."Level of Service" in the design of everything for cars as the #1 priority....VMT..."Vehicle Miles Traveled" changing the way we architect our cities to REDUCE vehicle miles traveled. That has one trip to an area that has work, shopping, schools, social amenities, etc. Then drive back home...or better yet, bedrooms in that same area...so no car is necessary
Back to the video, pay attention to the charts and numbers. They young are moving away from cars... Uber, Lyft, Autonomous cars, POD cars, etc are around the corner and driven mostly by the young
Here is another video put on my my city and am a committee member. Supplements the previous video
January 2014 - Taste and Talk Series - Sex, Neuroscience and Walkable Communities
So, think Ford is ahead of the curve...that will temporally leave a hole for the other auto OEMs to backfill...but that is just IMHO...
There will ALWAYS be a need for cars, trucks, etc...just not in the numbers we used to demand...
Finally...most of these metrics are for urban areas. Rural areas will continue to require cars...but...am seeing more and more 'small town USA' are seeing the need to instill TOD and High Density areas
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