"...I thought that I had a handle on oil supply/demand, ..."
I've been saying for the last 25 years that the rules of supply and demand do not apply to fossil fuel. (and really, any fuel now!)
I've always said, the manufactures (or whoever that is), will continue to make profits, regardless. If demand goes up, prices go up. If demand goes down, prices still go up, because "they" are going to get their profits at any cost to us consumers.
If demand went to virtually nothing, the price of a single gallon of gas would probably reach a million dollars, (and I feel for the poor soul that has to pay that) because the manufacturers (again, whoever that is) is still going to get their Christmas Bonus (figuratively speaking).
For what it's worth, here in Central Indiana, prices jumped again over the last few days. Diesel is running about $4.25 - $4.29 right now and gas is $3.75 (as of last night).
Supply and demand ... yea! We live in a disillusioned world. Whoever came up with that hog-wash! Must have been a 1940's economist pipe-dreamer!