Forum Discussion

ShinerBock's avatar
ShinerBock
Explorer
Sep 04, 2018

So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?

For those that do not know, a few years ago the International Maritime Organization made a significant regulation that will have a big impact on everyone's wallet, especially diesel vehicles owners. They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020. That is a significant drop from the current limit. While this will have an impact on everyone's wallet because this new fuel will be more costlier than current fuel used(which will increase prices on everyday goods), it may end up hurting or helping diesel owners according to some analyst.

Many here may remember when the EPA set the ULSD standard and how it effected diesel prices due to the extra refining and purification needed, and causing "sweet" crude prices to increase even more. For years, on land diesel owners alone had to pay the added cost for all of the added refining equipment and processes since the low sulfur fuel was only for them. Diesel fuel refiners also switched to using more "sweet" crude (that was only previously used to make gasoline) due to its lower sulfur content versus less expensive "sour" crude it used before causing the demand(and price) for "sweet" crude to increase.

There are people on both sides of this argument. Some are saying it will cause both diesel and gas prices to skyrocket because it would cause the demand for "sweet" crude to increase even higher. Others are saying that it will cause on road diesel prices to go down because now shipping will also be paying for the added refining processes spreading out the cost for the added piping and other equipment needing to purify "sour" crude.

What is your take on it?

83 Replies

  • fj12ryder wrote:
    I figure they'll either go up, or go down, or stay the same.



    Great answer as usual from you.

    To the answer, well it seems obvious to me, prices will increase, is that not how the world works.
  • It would help frame this question to know how much of the diesel fuel in the world goes to ships and I know that a lot of them use bunker oil anyway which is quite different from #2 road diesel. There may well be a short term effect while the market adjusts but I feel that long term other factors are going to be at least as important. Due to cost of fuel and environmental regulations I see a lot of engines going away from diesel anyway. If you search for "electric class 8 truck" you will find a lot of companies other that Tesla working on them. Buses are going to alternative fuels already. Ford's upcoming 7X V8 seems to be aimed at giving the diesel market for medium duty and smaller trucks some options. Even mining equipment seems to be pushing to get away from diesels. From the complaints I here from local farmers about the new diesel ag equipment I would be surprised if options are not offered for them soon. I guess the bottom line is that the future is pretty dang murky right now but I expect a lot of the demand for diesel to be gone within 30 years.