Forum Discussion
F350_RR
Sep 01, 2017Explorer
I think people also misinterpret the use of 100 year flood or 500 year flood as a simplistic expression of calculated probabilities. It's the false assumption that my house, RV or car won't be flooded because that big flood only occurs once in a 100 years or 500 years. Following the years theory, one could say that the Texas flood was the big one for the 500 year period ending August 31st. We could flood again in two years and that could be the only big flood for the 500 years following. But wait, if it's a 500 year flood, how come my house just got flooded two years ago?
As an expression of a % probability over a unit of time, perhaps we need to rethink how it is expressed and recognize that we could have a Texas size event practically anywhere and any year and not necessarily "in season". If you live in low land and near water (you decide what's low and what's near) the odds are that at some point you can be under water and those odds appear to be increasing.
As an expression of a % probability over a unit of time, perhaps we need to rethink how it is expressed and recognize that we could have a Texas size event practically anywhere and any year and not necessarily "in season". If you live in low land and near water (you decide what's low and what's near) the odds are that at some point you can be under water and those odds appear to be increasing.
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