SCVJeff wrote:
Lightening seeks out what it wants and isn't very selective. Trees are as grounded to the earth as an antenna, often more so.
They can usually predict thunderstorms and their general intensity depending on whats forming it, but certainly not where the strikes are gonna hit. Once you get to the Midwest and out of the Pacific influence, it's pretty amazing how accurate the forecasts are for days at a time.
NASA systems at Cape Canaveral (for the now defunct Space Shuttle program) -- note the last sentence -- with enough money, you can do amazing things!
Lightning Detection Systems--The Launch Pad Lightning Warning System (LPLWS), Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system and the LLP Lightning Detection System provide data directly to the Range Weather Operations on atmospheric electrical activity. These systems, along with weather radar, are the primary Air Force thunderstorm surveillance tools for evaluating weather conditions that lead to the issuance of lightning warnings.
The LPLWS is made up of 31 electric-field mills uniformly distributed throughout KSC and Cape Canaveral. They serve as an early warning system for electrical charges building aloft or approaching as part of a storm system. These instruments are ground-level electric field strength monitors. Information from the LPLWS gives forecasters information on trends in electric field potential and the locations of highly charged clouds capable of supporting natural or triggered lightning. The data are valuable in detecting early storm electrification and the threat of triggered lightning for launch vehicles.
LDAR detects and locates lightning in three dimensions using a "time of arrival" computation on signals received at seven antennas. Each part of the stepped leader of lightning sends out pulses which LDAR receives at a frequency of 66 MHz (equal to TV channel 3). By knowing the speed of light and the locations of all of the antennas, the position of individual steps of a leader can be calculated to within 100-meter accuracy in three dimensions. LDAR provides between 1 and 1,500 points per flash. This is the only system currently able to provide detailed information on the vertical and horizontal extent of a lightning flash rather than just the location of its ground strike. LDAR detects all lightning including cloud-to-cloud and in-cloud as well as cloud-to-ground.
The LLP detects, locates and characterizes cloud-to-ground lightning within approximately 60 miles of the RWO. Electromagnetic radiation emitted from lightning is first detected by the system’s three direction finder antennas located at Melbourne, Fla., Orlando, and in the northern area of KSC. Lightning positions are computed using triangulation from two of the sites, and relayed to a color display video screen in the RWO.
Once lightning-producing cells are identified and located, it becomes easier for the forecaster to predict just where the next lightning bolts will hit.