And Texas Caves In

NJRVer wrote:

rexlion wrote:

pianotuna wrote:
It is true, however, that Singapore is now having a "2nd wave" of infections after stopping extreme self isolation, so they are having to return to those policies.

As no one has found an effective treatment, we are left with just two options.

1. herd immunity, without a vaccine, may start having an effect at 60% of folks infected. The ugly part of that is 336 M x .6 =~ 202 M cases X 3.4% (taken by dividing today's case count into today's deaths)=~6.8 M deaths.

2. a working vaccine. There are 2 candidates in emergency human trials. Cross your fingers and toes.

Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19. Never does an entire population (100%) come down with any particular disease; 15% is much more common. Even with Covid-19, coronaviruses have been around for quite some time so anyone who's had one will most likely possess partial immunity to Covid-19; this is one reason why the vast majority of those who contract the virus have only moderate, mild, or no symptoms. Case fatality rates like the 3.4% vary wildly from day to day as well as from locale to locale; they are the absolute worst number to extrapolate anything from statistically.

It's very easy to panic. I understand that. Everyone should take a deep breath.... hold... and let it out slowly. Try to calm down.

So you assume just because the disease shares the word "Coronavirus" that people would have some immunity to Covid19?

That would be dead wrong thinking.

Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19.

I learned something interesting about this the other day. Their initial modeling of the spread assumed that 50% of the population would not comply with social distancing, which put the death toll much higher than 60,000. The American people have done a good job overall, but there's still much ahead of us, particularly in the South.

Hi,


This tracker indicates that the number of critically ill has risen. It has risen every day this week. Quite the opposite of what has been said.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

numbers USA

Total cases: 502,876 New: 33,752

Total deaths: 18,747 New: 2,035

wnjj wrote:

time2roll wrote:
US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.

The curve of death toll lags the curve of infections by several days or more. The rate of new hospitalizations is level to declining in places like NY which is a great indicator that we are indeed on the backside of the curve of the "spread" of the virus.

Yes and we are not done until those subways are full again AND the decline continues.
With so many on lock down I have doubts the initial decline will be the true end of this.
Daily new cases in the US have been about flat for a week.
Time will tell.

rexlion wrote:

pianotuna wrote:
It is true, however, that Singapore is now having a "2nd wave" of infections after stopping extreme self isolation, so they are having to return to those policies.

As no one has found an effective treatment, we are left with just two options.

1. herd immunity, without a vaccine, may start having an effect at 60% of folks infected. The ugly part of that is 336 M x .6 =~ 202 M cases X 3.4% (taken by dividing today's case count into today's deaths)=~6.8 M deaths.

2. a working vaccine. There are 2 candidates in emergency human trials. Cross your fingers and toes.

Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19. Never does an entire population (100%) come down with any particular disease; 15% is much more common. Even with Covid-19, coronaviruses have been around for quite some time so anyone who's had one will most likely possess partial immunity to Covid-19; this is one reason why the vast majority of those who contract the virus have only moderate, mild, or no symptoms. Case fatality rates like the 3.4% vary wildly from day to day as well as from locale to locale; they are the absolute worst number to extrapolate anything from statistically.

It's very easy to panic. I understand that. Everyone should take a deep breath.... hold... and let it out slowly. Try to calm down.

So you assume just because the disease shares the word "Coronavirus" that people would have some immunity to Covid19?

That would be dead wrong thinking.

time2roll wrote:
US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.

The curve of death toll lags the curve of infections by several days or more. The rate of new hospitalizations is level to declining in places like NY which is a great indicator that we are indeed on the backside of the curve of the "spread" of the virus.

pnichols wrote:

jaycocamprs wrote:

pnichols wrote:

Why anyone, young or old, would play games and hope to luck out on not picking up this dangerous coronavirus bug ... has gotta be nuts! :S

Why I would take my chances is a easy answer. At this point you can either A: live in a bubble or B: get the virus. I am not going to live in fear, fear of dying which is a fact of life.

What has a "bubble" got to do with not wanting to cause someone else's death?

I'm ready to die if the Powers That Be so dictate. The people I might bring death to by me infecting them might not be ready to die.

In other words ... my life is not all about me.

Living in a bubble would be living in isolation, no contact with others that are outside the isolation zone. Even if you wear PPE you are increasing your risk.

I would not knowingly do something to cause harm to someone else. However I can not be responsible for the health and well being of other adults. Those choices are their own, and theirs alone.

I understand the need to slow the spread of the virus so that the Health Care system is not overwhelmed. However at this time the only "cure" is to get sick. And that is something that I would rather do sooner than later.

T18skyguy wrote:

fj12ryder wrote:

T18skyguy wrote:
Yes, but it took them 76 days, and they have complete control of their citizens. Not at all like in this country. We depend on voluntary compliance, which has actually worked quite well. The battle between micro-organism's and macro-organism's has been going on for eons. There has probably been millions of pandemics, that's exactly why we have an immune system. An event like this "culls the herd" and makes the rest stronger. It's natural selection at work. I know it's a stark description, but it's true. The virus adapts, then we adapt. Statistically, it is not 1%. It's been averaging 2.5% to 3.5% overall. Over the course of my career, I've probably intubated about 10,000 people. It's not the way you want to leave this world. To tolerate intubation, they not only sedate you but often paralyze you with medication. So your gagging but you can't move. It's horrible. Then you die from suffocation anyway if your an unlucky one. Once they get a vaccine, and we get herd immunity, it will be more like the flu. It does look like, for the most part, they have avoided a catastrotphe that could have gone to a million or more.

Just wondering where you get your percentages. There's no way to figure percentages in a meaningful way since there's no way to know how many people have been exposed to the virus and would test positive. So that percentage has to be based on the number of people who test positive, which is very likely a small number of people who would test positive.

I've been following the worldwide meta-data sites like this one since the beginning of all this. There are also another 5 or 6 similar sites. I see your point that there's no way to calculate all the real positives that might dilute that number, but the flip side is there's no way to calculate all that died without being counted or tested which they estimate are many. The traditional metric is total deceased divided by the number of confirmed cases. All the worldwide sites appear to be in line with whats happening in the U.S. It varies but 2.5% to 3.5% is just an average. Some places are more, some are less. Of course, in area's with people with many co-morbidity's, it will be higher. Incidentally, the site in the link above was created by a 17 year old whiz kid and it's just as good /valid as the other sites. They had him on television and he looks like he hasn't even had his first shave yet.

Lots of numbers. But they figure that about 320 out of 100,000 have been tested in the US. I think the number of positives if they could be counted, would do more than just "dilute" the number. And I don't think I buy into the "metric" of dead divided by confirmed cases. I guess I just like my numbers a bit more exact. But maybe that's just me.

I like seeing data. It helps me see through the fog of headlines.

Here is what I look at every morning now:
Financial Times Daily Deaths Chart By Country


For more data, I sometimes drill into this:
Johns Hopkins Corona Virus Resource Center

Ed

Way too many people seem to be drinking Trump's happy talk kool-aid. He has no idea what is going on. You cannot arbitrarily decide that May 1 is the date to turn people loose and let them go back to normal. You need testing to do that. Trump is ending any testing by the US Govt at the time we need it most. At the rate we are going, we will not be back to normal on June 15 or Aug 1 or any other date unless we are really fortunate.

It may take until we have a vaccine. That is a lot more likely than a date of May 1 for returning to normalcy. There are something like 50 companies working on a vaccine. We may get one in the fall or next winter. The virus may also mutate into a new form by then.

Base your decisions on public health officials instead of
politicians. Trump wants nothing more than to jump start the economy to save his election chances. He does not care about your health even a little bit.

If you are young and healthy, good for you. Going out in the world you are likely to infect other people even if you don't get the virus yourself. Don't be selfish and risk the health of other people. Stay home.

fj12ryder wrote:

T18skyguy wrote:
Yes, but it took them 76 days, and they have complete control of their citizens. Not at all like in this country. We depend on voluntary compliance, which has actually worked quite well. The battle between micro-organism's and macro-organism's has been going on for eons. There has probably been millions of pandemics, that's exactly why we have an immune system. An event like this "culls the herd" and makes the rest stronger. It's natural selection at work. I know it's a stark description, but it's true. The virus adapts, then we adapt. Statistically, it is not 1%. It's been averaging 2.5% to 3.5% overall. Over the course of my career, I've probably intubated about 10,000 people. It's not the way you want to leave this world. To tolerate intubation, they not only sedate you but often paralyze you with medication. So your gagging but you can't move. It's horrible. Then you die from suffocation anyway if your an unlucky one. Once they get a vaccine, and we get herd immunity, it will be more like the flu. It does look like, for the most part, they have avoided a catastrotphe that could have gone to a million or more.

Just wondering where you get your percentages. There's no way to figure percentages in a meaningful way since there's no way to know how many people have been exposed to the virus and would test positive. So that percentage has to be based on the number of people who test positive, which is very likely a small number of people who would test positive.

I've been following the worldwide meta-data sites like this one since the beginning of all this. There are also another 5 or 6 similar sites. I see your point that there's no way to calculate all the real positives that might dilute that number, but the flip side is there's no way to calculate all that died without being counted or tested which they estimate are many. The traditional metric is total deceased divided by the number of confirmed cases. All the worldwide sites appear to be in line with whats happening in the U.S. It varies but 2.5% to 3.5% is just an average. Some places are more, some are less. Of course, in area's with people with many co-morbidity's, it will be higher. Incidentally, the site in the link above was created by a 17 year old whiz kid and it's just as good /valid as the other sites. They had him on television and he looks like he hasn't even had his first shave yet.