Ford posts videos of winter testing of their Electric F150.

wing_zealot wrote:

RobWNY wrote:
With Fords all-in commitment to be 100% electric by 2035...

I think you need to reread Ford's EV commitment; you have embellished it significantly.

Even if it was true...your average board member is in their 60's and will be long retired prior to the 15yr time horizon (as will many of the politicians pushing companies)...so lots could change between now and then.

RobWNY wrote:
With Fords all-in commitment to be 100% electric by 2035...

I think you need to reread Ford's EV commitment; you have embellished it significantly.

Reisender wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

ppine wrote:
Diesel engines may remain relevant for longer than people imagine. We will be developing several kinds of biofuels including fuel from algae and many others. Eventually they will be much cheaper than pulling fossil fuels out of the ground.

The flaw in the idea diesel will stay but gasoline will go is when you refine a barrel of crude oil, part comes out diesel and part comes out gasoline (among other things). There is some ability to vary what comes out of the refineries but not 100% one or the other...so there will still be gasoline coming out.

If the number of gas engine vehicles drop in number, gasoline will drop in price and the market will respond by switching from diesel to gasoline.

Realistically even by 2035, 100% isn't going to happen. It might be 50-80% but as we capture the easy conversions (ie: commuter only cars), it will become more and more difficult to cover the rest.

PS: when we talk about electricity production there is good and bad with EVs. Actual production will need to increase but production facilities (power plants) may not need to expand as much. Much can be done by charging when demand is low increasing the utilization of the power plants. For most practical purposes solar/wind are just a different type of power plant...though currently causing a lot of issues to the grid. Widespread EVs can mitigate that to a large degree because they can absorb excess demand when it's a sunny/windy day. In the long run, if those vehicles can feed back power into the grid, it could even drop the baseline power plant capability needed.

Informative observation. Especially on that gas/diesel thing.

Another thing is asphalt concrete...guess where the asphalt binder comes from ....crude oil. It's more complicated but it's basically the thick leftovers after refining the lighter more profitable items out of a barrel of crude. Probably 70-80% of road miles are asphalt concrete (plus most parking lots). If the demand for diesel & gasoline drop like a rock, how will these EVs have roads to drive on?

valhalla360 wrote:

ppine wrote:
Diesel engines may remain relevant for longer than people imagine. We will be developing several kinds of biofuels including fuel from algae and many others. Eventually they will be much cheaper than pulling fossil fuels out of the ground.

The flaw in the idea diesel will stay but gasoline will go is when you refine a barrel of crude oil, part comes out diesel and part comes out gasoline (among other things). There is some ability to vary what comes out of the refineries but not 100% one or the other...so there will still be gasoline coming out.

If the number of gas engine vehicles drop in number, gasoline will drop in price and the market will respond by switching from diesel to gasoline.

Realistically even by 2035, 100% isn't going to happen. It might be 50-80% but as we capture the easy conversions (ie: commuter only cars), it will become more and more difficult to cover the rest.

PS: when we talk about electricity production there is good and bad with EVs. Actual production will need to increase but production facilities (power plants) may not need to expand as much. Much can be done by charging when demand is low increasing the utilization of the power plants. For most practical purposes solar/wind are just a different type of power plant...though currently causing a lot of issues to the grid. Widespread EVs can mitigate that to a large degree because they can absorb excess demand when it's a sunny/windy day. In the long run, if those vehicles can feed back power into the grid, it could even drop the baseline power plant capability needed.

Informative observation. Especially on that gas/diesel thing.

ppine wrote:
Diesel engines may remain relevant for longer than people imagine. We will be developing several kinds of biofuels including fuel from algae and many others. Eventually they will be much cheaper than pulling fossil fuels out of the ground.

The flaw in the idea diesel will stay but gasoline will go is when you refine a barrel of crude oil, part comes out diesel and part comes out gasoline (among other things). There is some ability to vary what comes out of the refineries but not 100% one or the other...so there will still be gasoline coming out.

If the number of gas engine vehicles drop in number, gasoline will drop in price and the market will respond by switching from diesel to gasoline.

Realistically even by 2035, 100% isn't going to happen. It might be 50-80% but as we capture the easy conversions (ie: commuter only cars), it will become more and more difficult to cover the rest.

PS: when we talk about electricity production there is good and bad with EVs. Actual production will need to increase but production facilities (power plants) may not need to expand as much. Much can be done by charging when demand is low increasing the utilization of the power plants. For most practical purposes solar/wind are just a different type of power plant...though currently causing a lot of issues to the grid. Widespread EVs can mitigate that to a large degree because they can absorb excess demand when it's a sunny/windy day. In the long run, if those vehicles can feed back power into the grid, it could even drop the baseline power plant capability needed.

Diesel engines may remain relevant for longer than people imagine. We will be developing several kinds of biofuels including fuel from algae and many others. Eventually they will be much cheaper than pulling fossil fuels out of the ground.

riah wrote:
Why wouldn’t they? What’s the difference between gas/diesel power vs solar as the “fuel/power” source?
(Plus, the Amish using those generators have already made a change in philosophy then in regard to using mechanical motors, as have the Mennonites.)

RobWNY wrote:
. How would the Amish people survive? They aren't going to change their religious beliefs easily. They use battery powered equipment but use generators with gas/diesel engines to replenish those batteries. The Amish are one of the fastest growing populations in America so eventually it will happen but not in the next 15 years.

I don’t know much about the US population dynamics but a quick google shows about 300,000 Amish live in the US. Can they really influence technology adaptation that much? No idea. First I heard of this. Do they have some kind of mass influence on other US populations?

Why wouldn’t they? What’s the difference between gas/diesel power vs solar as the “fuel/power” source?
(Plus, the Amish using those generators have already made a change in philosophy then in regard to using mechanical motors, as have the Mennonites.)

RobWNY wrote:
. How would the Amish people survive? They aren't going to change their religious beliefs easily. They use battery powered equipment but use generators with gas/diesel engines to replenish those batteries. The Amish are one of the fastest growing populations in America so eventually it will happen but not in the next 15 years.

Well maybe if every new construction project included a requirement for installing solar, we’d be generating much more solar power; also if there was a real push for installing solar on residential rooftops with net metering that allows homeowners similar financial benefits as larger scale power companies, we could be generating significantly more power from solar. Solar has never been supported as greatly as other fossil fuels, with all their corporate breaks - and then they turn around and charge and additional fees to the customers.

pigman1 wrote:

...The key word here is COMMUTE. When you start talking about 600-700 miles a day pulling or carrying a max load you're in a whole new arena. Add that to the fact that California can't even keep the lights on TODAY..

RobWNY wrote:
With Fords all-in commitment to be 100% electric by 2035, it makes me wonder how soon they and other manufacturers will start phasing out Gas and Diesel options. It won't be all electric overnight so I imagine for people that prefer to stay with Gas or Diesel, it will become increasingly difficult to find the vehicle you want the closer to 2035 it is.

By 2035 I don’t suspect anyone would want a gas vehicle over an electric. There will just be too many performance and convenience advantages to electric. The technology is changing fast and many of the big manufacturers are planing to fully convert to EV’s.

Diesel will hang in for a little longer.

All JMHO.