Is the diesel going to end up going the way of the dinosaur?

ShinerBock wrote:
Funny part is, a lot of the air pollution in the west coast and LA area was NOT from diesels or any other automotive emissions like many have thought over the years. Recent finding show that a lot of pollution comes over from China(who pollutes way more than the US) in the jet stream and the Rockies keep it in the west coast. Compound that with the vehicle emissions and you have an air pollution disaster.

California has no choice but to have a more stringent smog regulation for vehicles because it is not like they can tell China or India to quit producing so much pollution. So they had to lower it the only way they could. Unfortunately for the rest of the country who don't live in areas like California where automotive emissions to be such a problem, we also have to live with their stringent regulation because California is such a big state with a lot of vehicles sales so it would only make sense economically for vehicle makes to cater to their emissions requirements. If California had a much smaller population and did not have as big of an automotive market, then I doubt the vehicles manufacturers would have made vehicles specifically for the California emissions. Of course now all states have to abide this because federal emissions regulations now mirror California's regardless if that state has the same smog issues or not.

As far as diesels going the way of the dodo, I don't think it is happening anytime soon. Maybe in the small gas saver car market, but not in the load hauling truck market. It is not just about how much torque a diesel produces, but also when that torque is produced that also helps it move a load and put you at an rpm where you are creating enough HP to go a certain speed.

Well, yes, china produces more pollution than the US, but only because they have three and a half times the people. Per person the chinese produce less than half of what an American or Canadian does. WE ARE THE PIGS OF THE PLANET. No one is really even close. The average european home uses half the electricity we do. Distances are shorter so yah they use less fuel too.

The smog of the 70's in LA was from cars in LA. California emission standards vastly improved that. The move to electric vehicles will improve that more.

Funny part is, a lot of the air pollution in the west coast and LA area was NOT from diesels or any other automotive emissions like many have thought over the years. Recent finding show that a lot of pollution comes over from China(who pollutes way more than the US) in the jet stream and the Rockies keep it in the west coast. Compound that with the vehicle emissions and you have an air pollution disaster.

California has no choice but to have a more stringent smog regulation for vehicles because it is not like they can tell China or India to quit producing so much pollution. So they had to lower it the only way they could. Unfortunately for the rest of the country who don't live in areas like California where air pollution such a problem, we also have to live with their stringent regulation because California is such a big state with a lot of vehicles sales so it would only make sense economically for vehicle makes to cater to their emissions requirements. If California had a much smaller population and did not have as big of an automotive market, then I doubt the vehicle manufacturers would have made vehicles specifically for the California emissions requirement. Of course now all states have to abide this because federal emissions regulations now mirror California's regardless if that state has the same smog issues or not.

As far as diesels going the way of the dodo, I don't think it is happening anytime soon. Maybe in the small gas saver car market, but not in the load hauling truck market. It is not just about how much torque a diesel produces, but also when that torque is produced that also helps it move a load and put you at an rpm where you are creating enough HP to go a certain speed.

deltabravo wrote:

wildtoad wrote:
And the real question might be if the diesel goes away what does that do for the 40+ ft motor homes and really huge 5th wheels?

And the thousands of over the road trucks (big rigs like Mack, Peterbuilt, KW, etc...) And railroad locomotives....

As areas get more dense and built-up, it makes sense for the trains to switch to over-head wires and electric operation. I think it is the Netherlands that recently claimed all or most of its rail operations are now running on renewable electricity.

But across the N.A continent ... I don't see that happening soon. Although when one of the early northern U.S. trans-continental lines was built (N.P. or G.N. ?), it was electric all the way to Seattle from Minneapolis. Prolly used coal fired generating plants back then though.

As already mentioned, electric plus fuel cells might work for long-distances. But not anytime soon I expect. Think diesel, perhaps with better and more reliable emissions equipment, will be with us for some time.

ktmrfs wrote:

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BTW not all of oregon has emissions testing. portland area, medford IIRC and maybe a few other areas. but most areas of the state are exempt from annual testing.

Think that's quite common. Ontario is similar.

It's the cities that suffer most from air pollution. Perhaps L.A. will follow the European cities that plan to outlaw diesels.

As for rural areas, it's the old rule: "dilution is the solution to pollution". But even rural areas are getting more crowded these days, like India and China.

wildtoad wrote:
And the real question might be if the diesel goes away what does that do for the 40+ ft motor homes and really huge 5th wheels?

And the thousands of over the road trucks (big rigs like Mack, Peterbuilt, KW, etc...) And railroad locomotives....

Terryallan wrote:

Lynnmor wrote:

4x4ord wrote:
Torque has little to do with it. Gears or electric motors can produce torque. Diesel engines power big equipment because they have traditionally been more fuel efficient than gasoline engines.

People like to talk about their large torque numbers, but horsepower is the measure of work that an engine can do.

Actually, according to my professors. Torque is the work a engine does. HP is how fast / well it can do it.

I agree with your professor.....ie HP is a more meaningful number as far as providing an indication as to an engine's ability to get a job done.

Diesel emissions will improve to meet requirements, or requirements will be adjusted to allow diesels to be utilized. There were lots of missteps along the way with gasoline engines as well, and they have been regulated with emission standards far longer.

As for the future, it's hard to predict. In the 1800's, it was predicted that solar energy would replace coal fired generation by 1900. Predictions were based on both photovoltaic solar cells which were around 1 percent efficiency at the time, and power generation using mirrors to direct the energy to steam generators. Sound familiar.

Unfortunately, I don't see any battery breakthroughs out there currently that show promise for vehicles requiring any significant power such as RV's, semi trucks etc. Batteries are an area where the hype is really getting out there in regards to service life etc. For decades, the standard for useable cycle life used to be 80 percent or more of original battery capacity. Now there isn't really any standard. In looking over the data for the Chevy Bolt for instance, it appears they use 60 percent of original capacity when talking cycle life. In well over 100 years battery improvements have been a slow incremental process.

Time will tell, but my thoughts are that something more along the lines of fuel cells will be the replacement for Diesel if and when diesel has to be replaced.

spoon059 wrote:

rhagfo wrote:

:h
I will say I haven't doubled checked but in Oregon diesels over 8,500# GVWR are emissions testing exempt.

Diesels in Maryland are exempt too.

likely exempt from periodic testing, but not likely exempt from EPA new vehicle emissions requirements. that's federal or california law.

I retired in 2012 after 35 years with a major oil company in the pipeline business. My last job was increasing our output of diesel on our products line that pumped gasoline, jet fuel & diesel. I retired before it was completed. I have talked to some of my coworkers and yes they are pumping almost twice as much diesel as before up the east coast. The company must know something to spend millions on that project.

ktmrfs wrote:


exempt from testing for annual registration but NOT exempt from EPA requirements when sold as new vehicle. they must meet CA emission requirements when sold as a new vehicle.

BTW not all of oregon has emissions testing. portland area, medford IIRC and maybe a few other areas. but most areas of the state are exempt from annual testing.

Oh, gotcha. Misunderstood.