MXP

[moisheh]

The peso is soaring. Good for Mexicans, bad for tourists. Some analysts are saying the exchange rate could go to 18 to 1.

[playaboy]

It is all about dollar weakness. It will continue to weaken. I hope you all living here in Mexico got you libertads for the coming super inflation.

[Tequila]

The Canadian dolalr is also rising, so I suspect its more a matter of US dollar weakness than US dollar strength

[navegator]

We have a 2 year old diaper terrorist at home, first week of December my nephew purchased a box of Kirkland diapers and a week latter same box of diapers was 200 pesos more, talk about inflation!

Everything has been going up about one peso per week and there are certain items that are not available at all, stores like Walmart, Costco, Soriana, Etc. block iles that offer cloths, kitchen utilities and so on, only food items are available and only so many pattrons enter at one time.

The peso is fluctuating between 18 and change to 19 and change, up and down like a yoyo but that is life in Mexico lindo y querido.

Pasen buenas noches y feliz año nuevo.

navegator

[MEXICOWANDERER]

Reality Check

Get to La Frontera
Approach the garita (gate or in this case the US Customs Booth)
(Espanol) Your car has Mexican plates do you have work authorization permits?

Shoppers CAN NOT ENTER THE USA. This comes with a period. No exceptions. They are turned back.

I ride with Pablo monthly and cross at Garita Dos (2) Tijuana. His KIA has National Mexican license plates and he has a border crossing pass not a green card.

I explain I am going to see my cardiologist. In 12 trips I have never been asked to show "proof" of an appointment.

It is not allowed to have more than one Mexicano accompany me. They would turn us around. No limit on US citizen passengers.

After my appointment we go on a shopping spree. Food prices have been spreading for the last four months. I find Barilla pasta for half the dollar cost at some discount grocery stores. Kirkland Signature ice cream that costs Fifteen dollars and sixty cents in Mexico costs eleven dollars in Chula Vista Costco. Coffee is around thirty percent less expensive in the USA brand for brand.

Meat and fresh verduras are much more expensive in the USA. Eggs too. Canned goods can be 50% less expensive. I found a costal of frijols pinto in USA Costco that cost 55% of what frijols pinto cost in Mexico Costco.

Clothing is ridiculously cheaper in Costco USA plus they have my 2X size.

Border merchants say the health restrictions are killing them. The perfume outlets on one street say business is down 90%. The Grocery Outlet says it's sales are down "Well over fifty percent"

The green card holders do shop in the USA. But from 5PM to (?) on Fridays and end of month days there are four times the numbers of Aduaneros (Mexican Customs) people circulating with flashlights pulling people into secondary. The Customs people are a lot tougher on Mexicanos than they are on visitors. This last trip we got secondaried. The Aduanero opened the rear saw it was groceries then looked at me. The trunk slammed shut. We were exempt. What is their kiljoy is the diet soda and no sugar can goods, unavailable down here.

Eduardo's ocean farmed striped bass production is down 30% since mid summer. It is a NAFTA effort with all sales pegged in pesos not Canadian Loonies. People have been laid off.

Mexicanos including me are masters at monetary retraction.
Brenda goes into hysterics when I shrug and pronounce. "Tortillas, Sal, Chile, y Musica".

The Peso may be strong against the dollar but no one gets paid in dollars down here and they cannot reach dollar goods. If you think prices in Walmart, Costco, and Sams Club are not rising, you may be in for a shock.

[moisheh]

Profdant. I like that one. Mexican dichos are so colorful. English is boring

[profdant139]

Then there is the other side of the coin --

"Las gallinas de arriba ensucian las de abajo."

"The hens at the top of the roost befoul those below them."

Not exactly sure how it applies here, but it's colorful! 😉

[qtla9111]

navegator wrote:
There is a very old saying in Mexico:

Los de abajo seremos los de arriba!

The ones below will be on top

And this has come to pass!

navegator

That certainly hasn't happened in the last two years. The previous 30 years were great!

[navegator]

There is a very old saying in Mexico:

Los de abajo seremos los de arriba!

The ones below will be on top

And this has come to pass!

navegator

[qtla9111]

moisheh wrote:
I remember when the gov was cash-rich and when the peso was under pressure they would buy up the peso to prevent a fall But that was when they had some highly educated people in the government. Times have changed.

X2

[moisheh]

I remember when the gov was cash rich and when the peso was under pressure they would buy up the peso to prevent a fall But that was when they had some highly educated People in the government. Times have changed.

[navegator]

The peso will probably stabilize at 1.00 USD to 18.00 Pesos (hopefully), for many years it was stable at 1.00 USD to 12.50 MX pesos, until the fiasco of the devaluation of the early eighties and from then on it has been a roller coaster.

navegator

[qtla9111]

moisheh wrote:
The cheer for a strong peso is not good for the nation. It discourages foreign investment and thus affects employment. Currency values are very complicated but stability is most important.

It sure does, thinking about import/export of goods and services, industrial and commercial property owners hedge on that, but investors become hestitant because they aren't sure what will happen next with the peso.

Lots of good but can bring a lot bad with it.

[moisheh]

The cheer for a strong peso is not good for the nation. It discourages foreign investment and thus affects employment. Currency values are very complicated but stability is most important.

[silversand]

Moisheh wrote:
The peso is soaring

....the past 8 months has been anomalous for the MXN (and, an exact price correlation~trend with the USD~CAD, too). Unfortunately, MXN took a major hit between the 18th of February, and the 23rd March, this due to a huge flight from/out of riskier currencies....because of you know what.

*USD~MXN has been steadily favoring MXN from around ~ 12th May to today. The MXN will come back to normal (read: pre-Covid days of 18.60 ~ 19.ish) at this trend and probably stabilize by appx March-ish of next year.

*this is my opinion only; do not use this as trading advice