Autonomous vehicles and RVing in the future

[et2]

Just a thoughts running through my mind about the integration of autonomous cars and how it could change our driving in the near future. It's coming, fast. Some say by 2020. Taxis, personal vehicles, trucks, etc. Not to mention how people own cars might change as well. I was reading an article about how in the near future the cars you need to get around in might not be owned by you. Just simply borrowed from a pool of autonomous vehicles suited for your needs and used and sent back.

The way vehicle are changing could perhaps affect cars you own today and future ones. As the technology increases its programmed and developed into these new vehicles. I'd guess maybe to the point where they talk to each other. Or installation of equipment on our roads and more satellites designed to control all this technology.

I believe they wish to reduce the number of cars on the roads and not have any human interaction with the driving experience. How will it affect the RVing industry and its future. I'm pondering, do they want it to survive along with the autonomous industry? If so, how fast will the autonomous systems be integrated into Motorhomes? Will if be affordable at first? Will you have a option to have it or not? If not required will they force the industry to do so by taxing your MH to the point you can't afford it anymore?

[Mile_High]

I'm totally for it for a couple of reasons, even though the loss of freedom would be hard.

1 - we have a handicapped daughter that will never drive. Its a struggle for her to arrange the bus to get to work. It would be nice to know that when we are dead and gone she may be able to own a google car and move on with her life.

2 - computers are highly more efficient than humans, and when I look in these cities (especially ours) where they think the only fix to traffic jams is pouring more tax dollars into wider roads, I really start to resent the freedoms some drivers have. You build 10 lanes, you have 8 idiots in the left lanes driving the same speed. Short of a big stick to the head, these drivers deserve to be taken over by google!

[DrewE]

I suspect fully autonomous cars are a lot longer ways off than many are predicting, and certainly longer off than three years. Three years may be sufficient for good weather conditions and good, well-marked roads, but there are far more driving conditions than those that vehicles must operate in. Keeping track of things in a snowstorm or construction zone, etc. is a hard task.

Even when available, I suspect the transition to automated cars will be comparatively slow. One reason for my belief is that it has not happened for other kinds of vehicles very quickly, despite the technology being available and tested. Railroads in particular come to mind; automated train driving is a much simpler task than automated car driving (because you only have to worry about velocity, not trajectory), and there are some automatic driverless rail lines, but the vast majority still have human engineers.

Another reason for this suspicion is that, generally speaking, predictions of radical infrastructure change are almost always wildly overoptimistic (and predictions of the rate of social change often somewhat pessimistic and frequently in the wrong direction). Fifty or seventy-five years ago it was sometimes suggested that we would live in dome houses or domed cities, while in reality many of the houses built fifty or seventy-five years ago are being lived in more or less as they were constructed, with only incremental updates and upgrades. The idea that most of the vehicle fleet will be replaced in three years does not ring true.

I also very much doubt that private ownership of cars will go out of style in most areas outside of large cities. The economies of car sharing make much less sense when most everybody is going in the same general directions (to work) at the same general time, and the convenience and comfort of having one's stuff all set in one's car is not to be underestimated. For the same reason, most people would not like to move into a different hotel room every night (and deal with all the packing and unpacking it involves).

[NHwanderlust]

Here in NH during the winter I have to wipe off my back up camera lens almost every day. It gets covered with snow, ice, road salt, and other bad weather contaminants. With camera lenses all over an autonomous car I see that as a big issue. Driving through a NH snow storm with the front of your car getting covered with snow, ice, and slush could be a real problem. Some days I arrive at my destination with my front license plate covered with a 1/4 inch of ice and totally unreadable. I sure they have a solution for that but what?

[westernrvparkow]

Bring it on!!! I have a car that already incorporates some autonomous features. The cruise control is adaptive and automatically slows the vehicle down to the speed of the car in front of it. Nice in stop and go traffic and a Godsend when you are ripping across the tundra and some guy is doing 45 in the passing lane. It does park itself, not a necessity, but sure is nice. It has lane keeping technology. GPS has told us for years when we make a wrong turn.
At my current age and health, 20 to 25 years is perfect. Just when I should be hanging up the keys for good, my driverless car will keep me mobile. Like everyone, the car will be named James. How great will it be to hop into the back seat and shout. "To the opium den, James!".

[Effy]

crasster wrote:
But can you imagine... You are stuck in a hot traffic jam for an hour. You look to the right, then to the left, and there is nobody else in the jam but you. It is something nightmares are made of.

I agree, there may be cars that can do it, but pretty much it will be drivers. I think we'll see drone deliveries far quicker. Will be interesting!

To that point, what if one - just one - autonomous vehicle malfunctions on a crowded interstate. If there was no accident but it just stopped. Accident prevention would take over and all the other following vehicles would stop to avoid hitting it. Now you have a huge traffic jam with no one at the helm. At least with a person, you can get the vehicle off the road and call for assistance. I assume an autonomous vehicle could call as well, but you get the point. What about flat tires? mechanical malfunctions?

[crasster]

But can you imagine... You are stuck in a hot traffic jam for an hour. You look to the right, then to the left, and there is nobody else in the jam but you. It is something nightmares are made of.

I agree, there may be cars that can do it, but pretty much it will be drivers. I think we'll see drone deliveries far quicker. Will be interesting!

[Jack_Diane_Free]

My opinion on this topic is that it will not catch on with the current generation as a lot of people do not trust technology. Our children and grandchildren who grew up with technology as a way of life look at things differently. I think that our great grandchildren will embrace all technologies and will not want to ride around in their grand parents antique vehicles. Just think that even today one can access all the knowledge available in the world, in just about any language with a small handheld device that one can carry in your pocket. If you had told me that 50 years ago I would think you were crazy. And I love technology. Autonomous vehicles are coming and they will most likely not be powered by an internal combustion engine, and may not become mainstream for a couple more generations.

[Effy]

I constantly see hot rods, new fancy cars, cars that go faster, lots of bling, speed and style. Zippy cars, antique ones, supercars, RV,s jeeps, pretty much anything with wheels is fun. What does all this mean? People love cars. They love driving them and working on them. From a utilitarian standpoint I see there may be a need or even a want for autonomous vehicles, but never anywhere near the percentage to sway the general population. People have a love affair with cars, and so I never see them prying them from the hands of those with a passion for decades to come. I also think there is a lot of inhibition allowing autonomous anything. While pictures of the future always included this in the landscape, I think reality is different. People like to have control and do things on their own. I know I do. They said a decade ago that a large percentage of vehicles will be battery or solar. And here we are, the percentage is so marginal and I don't see this this expanding any time soon. It's such a small percentage of the market share it's hardly inclusive into the whole picture. Sure they get a lot of media attention, but it's a really, really small population. People still want power, under the hood and the power to manually control it. I think autonomous vehicles are coming. But I think it will be a small market, just like battery powered cars. in order to change the market, people have to want it, and I think engineers and media want it a lot more than the actual consumers.

On that note, I have been seeing more vehicles that park your car for you. Frankly, if you can't parallel park, you shouldn't be driving. It's less about the parking and more about knowing how to control your vehicle and maneuver it. This sort of technology is an enabler to people who shouldn't be driving in the first place. I know that sounds like a crass comment but it's true. When I took my driver's test decades ago, this was part of the test.

[et2]

http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384

[et2]

Some are moving much faster

[FlintlockCG]

Here are some comments from Elon Musk; he predicts the change to occur over the next 20 years, so by 2037 instead of 2020.

Musk

I also recall another comment he made basically saying that taxi drivers/Uber drivers will be in obsolete jobs in 20 years.

So if this is true one would think that there will be some self-driving RV technology out there.

[et2]

No hope on my end. As I enjoy this freedom too. But, don't kid yourself. At some point IMHO you might not have such a easy choice. Taxes have a way of changing the way we do things. It costs 1300 a year just to insure my low end DP here in MI now. Someone owning a more higher cost MH is paying much more. Perhaps you will be able to decide. But you may not be able to afford it.

[Rick_Jay]

Well, I think 2020 is a pretty ambitious date. I think it's going to take a lot longer than that for the lawmakers, vehicle makers and insurance companies to sort this all out. 🙂

I've been thinking about this and I'm wondering if the "autonomous vehicle", as we see it now, will actually become common place. Wouldn't it be better if a humanoid robot, who can do many varied tasks around the home could also drive? If so, then they could be taught to drive any vehicle. You wouldn't need all of the extra doodads that make a vehicle autonomous. One robot - does many things. THAT I could see in our future. I think by the time they get all of the legal aspects of autonomous vehicles worked out, the humanoid robots will be ready for prime time.

It would be neat being able to party in the living quarters of our motorhome while travelling TO our destination. 🙂

But truthfully, I'm not expecting to see this any time soon in widespread use. Of course, I still haven't bought into the "smart phone" mania and just use a cheap ol' limited Tracfone to make calls and text. 🙂

~Rick

[sch911]

No there will always be cars driven by humans. There are other articles out there stating that something like 77% of vehicle owners would never consider owning an Autonomous vehicle. I wouldn't get your hopes up too much just yet....