Wowee The Insane Rise Of Copper Price

[MEXICOWANDERER]

If you need wire for future projects, my advice is to buy is to buy it NOW rather than put it off. The prospects for ten dollar per pound commodity price is no longer absurd.

A trip to Home Despot or Lowe's will put the fear in you. Like lumber, the cost is a knee buckler. The copper mines down here are nowhere near capacity, so it isn't an issue of supply shortage.

Mexico is supplying a large percentage of distribution transformers to Electricity Utilities in North America.

Prices for welding cable will jump as old inventory needs to be replaced.

I inventoried up with a few thousand feet of wire the last five years. I still have a thousand feet of Space Shuttle refit wire in Michoacán, but it's 10 gauge and larger. Here, it's 12 gauge and smaller.

The cost of copper terminals has jumped as well.

[tarnold]

Where are $8 2/4s. At my Lowe’s, $10.67 yesterday.

[corv65MK]

We have to pay for the lazy ones that wont work just stay home and collect unemployment.Business trying to hire new employees due to they make more staying home.Prices every where crazy.

[wa8yxm]

The pandemic put a hold on many company's manufacturing
this leads to a supply side shortage
So Murphy's law of Supply and demand kicks in.
This is the long version

As supply goes down relative to Demand prices increase (Ok that's the regular law of supply/demand as well)
as prices increase more companies produce so supply goes up (Also part of regular law)
And as the supply goes up the price goes up even more to cover the cost of warehousing all the excess Supply (Murphy's rule)

[wapiticountry]

At least in our part of the country there truly was a lumber shortage. You couldn't buy a bunk of OSB at any price. Yards were rationing purchases to 10 sheets or less. The reasons were many.
COVID shut down mills, Cross Border trade with Canada was drastically curtailed and the Canadian lumber wasn't entering the market. Tariffs on lumber were increased in response to Canadian Tariffs on Cheese. (politics aside, it makes no sense to me to equate a necessary commodity like lumber with cheese, but the political mind works in strange ways)
Now, there is some inventory, but it is likely the yards bought it at market highs and need to bleed it off. Wholesale futures are down about 30% from the highs but plummeting retail prices would bankrupt the retailers that are now stuck with inventory they paid and arm and a leg to get. My WAG (wild arse guess) is we will see a gradual decline in the retail price over the next few months. Then we will settle into the new normal of high, but not quite ridiculously high, long term prices for lumber. Just like fuel, Food, travel, RV sites and everything else.

[noteven]

free radical wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
What about $57 1/4 inch plywood or $7 to $8 2X4's. We aren't allowed to mention the reason for all this.

Sure you can,,tarrifs 😛

Those who dont know history will repeat same mistakes
Ronald Reagan on free trade

https://youtu.be/TcDNXMy4VpA

Early in the speech he says "...free trade with free people..."

This has morphed into "as much buying from the cheepest producer regardless of who or where or how...."

Anyways -

What would the "tariff" be on Alberta harvested structural lumber being sold in Alberta retail locations?

Is there any time in history there have been better tools (24 hr "news", social media) to get a good market shortage grass fire going?

[Walaby]

I believe there are probably some shorages out there on various material and commodities. BUT, I also believe some companies/industries are jumping on the shortage bandwagon to jack up prices so they can get a piece of the pie. Last year there was supposedly a propane shortage. No shortage anywhere I frequent/live, and fortunately local prices didn't increase much. Earlier this year, just before spring (aka pool season), there was suddenly a chlorine shortage. It was announced once on the news (that I recall) and now the local pool store is rationing chlorine tablets. Meanwhile my local Lowes has full shelves.

Some of this is real, but some it is is also to induce panic buying, raise prices, and gouge the consumer. You'll never convince me that it's not.

Mike

[MEXICOWANDERER]

I wonder what China is going to do? Low prices is their only strong point. They are a huge metals buyer. Did I see $279.00 for 250' of 14AWG romex at Home Depot? Genuinedealz seems to be out of cable.

I read an article that said the price of a new railroad locomotive has jumped $300,000 dollars. Some huge cables cost $160 ft.

I have a feeling the cost of cabling an inverter will surpass the cost of the inverter itself.

I just returned from the workshop bedroom after petting boxes of wire and cable and large trays of terminals.

[mr_andyj]

There is no lumber shortage, the lumber is stacked and packed in the yards, the banks want high prices to make higher mortgages.
Everything will go up.
25% inflation will see to that.
Printing money like crazy.
It is not stimulus, it is welfare that the govt is paying out to everyone, job or not.
Don't hold Dollars. Buy stuff now.
Friends I know who fled eastern Europ nations say when they hit hyper inflation that they would get paid, go spend it that day, buying anything, clothing not their size, pots and pans, anything, because the next day that money would not buy gum.

[Sagebrush]

The copper mills slowed down for various reasons. If I remember right, one was taken out with those high winds a while back. Another changed ownership and just was not taking orders for some reason. I use copper in my business, its not $10 a pound, but I'm seeing processed and ready to ship small batch C110 prices close to $7 now.

Check out steel prices, its ugly. The freeze event in Texas put a hurt on fiberglass resin availability big time. To many monopolies, we rely on these huge companies too much. A couple have major issues and the prices skyrocket. The government has created the issue with all the regulations. Its takes lots of lawyers and politicians to build a big factory.

The lack of warehousing durable goods is frightening, lots of this stress on the supply system is self inflicted. Moving the various parts supply off shore was just plain stupid. I buy very little for my business from the US, the stuff isn't made here anymore. But its good to see our local lumber mills busy for a change.

[Cummins12V98]

theoldwizard1 wrote:
The lumber shortage was caused by the large mills. They stopped buying logs early and let their inventory shrink. By the time they realized that demand was up, to was too late to catch up.

Besides, why catch up with demand when you are making HUGE profits !

Not sure where you are but the mills in WA And OR yards are full and buying as usual.

[theoldwizard1]

The lumber shortage was caused by the large mills. They stopped buying logs early and let their inventory shrink. By the time they realized that demand was up, to was too late to catch up.

Besides, why catch up with demand when you are making HUGE profits !

[agesilaus]

Tarriffs, the smoot-hawley act is void I think. And I doubt we get a lot of plywood from China. The SE is littered with lumber mills cranking out plywood, and so is the Northwest.
The lack of workers to fill jobs since they are being paid to stay at home may have something to do with it.
As for Copper, I don't know what the issue is. Tho I see that speculators are driving up the price. Maybe we could reopen some copper mines here in the US.
Or maybe this:

Fortune magazine wrote:
So if wood production is at a 13-year high, why aren’t lumber prices falling faster? Simply put, demand is still through the roof. In April, new housing starts backed off 8% from a 14-year high set in March 2021; however, that level of construction is up 67% from its bottom in April 2020 and up 22% from April 2019. Home construction remains red-hot. Additionally, do-it-yourselfers aren’t slowing down: In April, home improvement sales hit an all-time high—up 31% from pre-pandemic levels.

“The backlog is just too strong. There are too many places to put wood,” says Chip Setzer, director of trading and growth for Mickey Group, a commodity trading platform. “I got customers in the Caribbean screaming for more; I got China customers screaming for more. Everybody is under a squeeze.”

[free_radical]

agesilaus wrote:
What about $57 1/4 inch plywood or $7 to $8 2X4's. We aren't allowed to mention the reason for all this.

Sure you can,,tarrifs 😛

Those who dont know history will repeat same mistakes
Ronald Reagan on free trade

https://youtu.be/TcDNXMy4VpA

[agesilaus]

What about $57 1/4 inch plywood or $7 to $8 2X4's. We aren't allowed to mention the reason for all this.