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Hurricane Patricia

The_Texan
Explorer
Explorer
Now forecast to come onshore as a Cat 4 hurricane

Bob & Betsy - USN Aviation Ret'd '78 & LEO Ret'd '03 & "Oath Keeper Forever"


2005 HR Endeavor 40PRQ, '11 Silverado LT, Ex Cab 6.2L NHT 4x4, w/2017 Rzr 4-900 riding in 16+' enclosed trailer in back.
Where the wheels are stopped today
38 REPLIES 38

rocmoc
Explorer
Explorer
MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

IMHO No matter what it takes DieselBurps, when you feel the first gusts of storm wind, maneuver your rig endwise to the wind, even if you have to block aisles and unplug to do it. Do not allow the wind to hit you on the beam.


Also AGREE! Have had to do this twice in West Texas & Southern New Mexico and you are in Worst conditions than I was. Put the ship into the wind!

rocmoc n AZ/Mexico
rocmoc n Great SouthWest USA

KendallP
Explorer
Explorer
Tropical Storm to Cat 5+ in 24 hours. First time ever!

Gusts recorded - 220 mph
Cheers,
Kendall

MEXICOWANDERER
Explorer
Explorer
Worst GUESS

Winds in Tepic starting around 10PM. Tepic time.

EASTERLY wind. Wind from the east.

Tenacatita and La Manzanilla got bore-sighted. BAD

Hopefully because of the number of people the worst stuff missed Melaque and Barra de Navidad.

Tequila
Explorer
Explorer
DieselBurps wrote:
Just made it to Tepic. Staying at the RV park here.


wise move. No sign of anything north of Mazatlan. Still sunny with clouds visible to the south. Looks like its track is a bit futher south & east than expected. Melaque is taking a direct hit.

Roy_Lynne
Explorer
Explorer
Don't chat get the heck out of Dodge.

KendallP
Explorer
Explorer
MEXICOWANDERER wrote:
...May fortune be with you amigo.

Yes.

Glad to hear you are out of the way, at least, MEX.

My latest report shows the eye is just about to make landfall and thread the needle between PV and Manzanillo. The Cat 5 portion is only about 70 miles in diameter. So these 2 towns may experience Cat 4 or 3.

Meanwhile... the villages in that 35 mile radius are going to get hammered.

So... I guess... 2 consolations.

Narrow radius

Fast moving
Cheers,
Kendall

MEXICOWANDERER
Explorer
Explorer
News From Barra de Navidad

Power cut. Worst* guess wind gusts are at 50 mph 80 kph and increasing

4:20PM Central Daylight Time

Then loss of internet connection. CFE now prefers to cut power before storms damage equipment.

*The word "best" does not apply to this kind of nightmare.

My guess:
There isn't going to be a "miraculous miss" of Barra, Melaque, La Manzanilla and Tenacatita. Manzanillo looks like it just got missed but horribly now Tepic Nayarit looks like it is going to see biblical quantities of rainfall and roaring wind.

IMHO No matter what it takes DieselBurps, when you feel the first gusts of storm wind, maneuver your rig endwise to the wind, even if you have to block aisles and unplug to do it. Do not allow the wind to hit you on the beam. ConAgua is predicting category 3 wind for Tepic. Hell I don't know if it's going to be accurate. But don't take it on the beam or you're screwed. Hurricanes and RVs are scarier than Hell. From Gilberto in 1988, Henriette in 1995 and the Cabo destroying storm I have been through too many. May fortune be with you amigo.

bighatnohorse
Explorer II
Explorer II
Massive. Epic. I wish you all the best of outcomes.
2021 Arctic Fox 1150
'15 F350 6.7 diesel dually long bed
Eagle Cap Owners
โ€œThe best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."
-Yeats

DieselBurps
Explorer
Explorer
Just made it to Tepic. Staying at the RV park here.

fla-gypsy
Explorer
Explorer
I have spent my entire life dodging hurricanes except once. If you are in the path you should leave. Property can be replaced, lives cannot.
This member is not responsible for opinions that are inaccurate due to faulty information provided by the original poster. Use them at your own discretion.

09 SuperDuty Crew Cab 6.8L/4.10(The Black Pearl)
06 Keystone Hornet 29 RLS/(The Cracker Cabana)

MEXICOWANDERER
Explorer
Explorer
I am in Baja California under azure skies, 80F temperatures, and light breezes. The family moved into my dwelling. If is, without a doubt stronger than a bomb shelter. Over two thousand feet of 1/2" re-bar and several pallets of Cemex. To make 6-sack concrete. The strongest water concrete in the book. The walls and ceiling/roof are 15-1/2" thickness. The door is 1/8" corrugated steel reinforced with square steel tubing and four monel hinges, four top to bottom tongue latches and monel door frame with 1/2 studs sunk 8" into the concrete. The windows now have 1-1/8" marine sub-floor plywood cladding.

My fear is for the villagers. And the family's income. The palm frond restaurant is gone. Jesus' 26' boat had it's Yamaha removed and is in the gen shed. Then he filled the boat with sea water all the way to the brim. It is planted 56' above the beach in the parking lot which slopes up 8' from nominal tide.

This is about all anyone can do. If I was there I would just be another burden. I have to swallow a bitter dose of reality and admit this is true.

KendallP
Explorer
Explorer
MEXICOWANDERER wrote:
Bad Juju for La Costa Alegre.

Thinking of you, gramps. Hoping you're ok and not gonna' have to bear much of this. And hope your... near dial-up-speed internet connection doesn't get much worse.

I have a good friend on vacation in Yelapa... at the south end of La Bahia de Banderas. No roads in. Only accessed by boat and no cell service or contact capabilities of any kind.

Prayers and best wishes
Cheers,
Kendall

navegator
Explorer
Explorer
All of you that are in coastal cities need to move inland NOW, specially if you have never been in one, there is a surge of water preceding the wind that travels quite far inland, and depending on what side of the center you get the wind, with the wind come all the missiles that are torn of the huts, shacks, houses and assorted debris, a 2 x 4 piece of wood will go right through an RV and a sheet of tin roofing will slice trough an RV like a hot knife on butter.

I am not exaggerating, I have seen the aftermath of smaller hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico, I used to accompany my dad to asses damage done to phone lines and buildings for the phone company when I was younger.

Try to move to higher ground and do not park on streets that are going down hill, these will become rivers full of debris, park on streets that are parallel to the terrain, in the middle of the block and the high side of the street, that way if the water running on the street veers in it will hit the opposite side, also try to park away from power lines, they do snap and fall, also any trees, branches will brake.

Last but not least have enough water, food and fuel to last at least a week, conserve your electric supply as much as possible, use candles or kerosene lamps and have fresh batteries for the small flashlights, do not park in an open space the wind can and will flip the RV on it's side make sure that there is a good solid structure, a simple wall can come down and they do fall.

Please heed the warnings and be safe, remember that you can not outwit or defy mother nature she always wins.

navegator

briansue
Explorer
Explorer
monster Category 5 storm, the strongest ever in the Western Hemisphere


Mexico braces for strongest hurricane in Western hemisphere

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/mexico-braces-for-strongest-hurricane-in-western-hemisphere/ar-BBmjdo0?li=AAa0dzB

MANZANILLO, Mexico (AP) โ€” Hurricane Patricia headed toward southwestern Mexico Friday as a monster Category 5 storm, the strongest ever in the Western Hemisphere that forecasters said could make a "potentially catastrophic landfall" later in the day.
Residents of a stretch of Mexico's Pacific Coast dotted with resorts and fishing villages on Thursday boarded up homes and bought supplies ahead of Patricia's arrival.
With maximum sustained winds near 200 mph (325 kph), Patricia is the strongest storm ever recorded in the eastern Pacific or in the Atlantic, said Dave Roberts, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Patricia's power was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which left more than 7,300 dead or missing in the Philippines two years ago, according to the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization.
In Mexico, officials declared a state of emergency in dozens of municipalities in Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco states that contain the bustling port of Manzanillo and the posh resort of Puerto Vallarta. The governor of Colima ordered schools closed on Friday, when the storm was forecast to make what the Hurricane Center called a "potentially catastrophic landfall."
According to the 2010 census, there were more than 7.3 million inhabitants in Jalisco state and more than 255,000 in Puerto Vallarta municipality. There were more than 650,000 in Colima state, and more than 161,000 in Manzanillo.
Evacuations were under way in Puerto Vallarta Friday, with officials taking people to 14 shelters, mostly in schools, according to the Jalisco government's webpage. Exact numbers of those evacuated were not immediately available.
Roberto Ramirez, the director of Mexico's National Water Commission, which includes the nation's meteorological service, said that Hurricane Patricia will be powerful enough to lift up automobiles, destroy homes that are not sturdily built with cement and steel and will be able to drag along people caught outside when the storm strikes.
Ramirez said that the people in the most danger from the hurricane will be those on the coast, especially in the state of Jalisco.
Rain pounded Manzanillo late Thursday while people took last-minute measures ahead of Patricia, which quickly grew from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane, leaving authorities scrambling to make people safe.
At a Wal-Mart in Manzanillo, shoppers filled carts with non-perishables as a steady rain fell outside.
Veronica Cabrera, shopping with her young son, said Manzanillo tends to flood with many small streams overflowing their banks. She said she had taped her windows at home to prevent them from shattering.
Alejandra Rodriguez, shopping with her brother and mother, was buying 10 liters of milk, a large jug of water and items like tuna and canned ham that do not require refrigeration or cooking. The family already blocked the bottoms of the doors at their home to keep water from entering.
Manzanillo's "main street really floods and cuts access to a lot of other streets. It ends up like an island," Rodriguez said.
In Puerto Vallarta, restaurants and stores taped or boarded-up windows, and residents raced to stores for last-minute purchases ahead of the storm.
The Hurricane Center in Miami warned that preparations should be rushed to completion, saying the storm could cause coastal flooding, destructive waves and flash floods.
"This is an extremely dangerous, potentially catastrophic hurricane," center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said.
Feltgen said Patricia also poses problems for Texas. Forecast models indicate that after the storm breaks up over land, remnants of its tropical moisture will likely combine with and contribute to heavy rainfall that is already soaking Texas independently of the hurricane, he said.
"It's only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.
In Colima, authorities handed out sandbags to help residents protect their homes from flooding.
By early Friday, Patricia's maximum sustained winds had increased to 200 mph (325 kph) โ€” a Category 5 storm, the highest designation on the Saffir-Simpson scale used to quantify a hurricane's wind strength.
Patricia was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) southwest of the Pacific resort of Manzanillo early Friday and was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph) on a projected track to come ashore between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta sometime Friday afternoon or evening.
Some fluctuations in intensity were forecast before then, but the Hurricane Center said it was expected to be an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm when it made landfall.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the Mexican coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, a stretch that includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A broader area was under hurricane watch, tropical storm warning or tropical storm watch.
The Hurricane Center said Patricia was expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches in some locations. Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach land late Thursday or early Friday, complicating any remaining preparation work at that point.
"We are calm," said Gabriel Lopez, a worker at Las Hadas Hotel in Manzanillo. "We don't know what direction (the storm) will take, but apparently it's headed this way. ... If there is an emergency we will take care of the people. There are rooms that are not exposed to wind or glass."

The_Texan
Explorer
Explorer
DieselBurps wrote:
Now category 5
Just checked and now they say it will make landfall as a very strong category 5. If you are anywhere near the projected track cone, you need to vacate immediately. This is NOT one to hold a hurricane party and ride out.

Bob & Betsy - USN Aviation Ret'd '78 & LEO Ret'd '03 & "Oath Keeper Forever"


2005 HR Endeavor 40PRQ, '11 Silverado LT, Ex Cab 6.2L NHT 4x4, w/2017 Rzr 4-900 riding in 16+' enclosed trailer in back.
Where the wheels are stopped today