And Texas Caves In

[DallasSteve]

The last bastion of sanity has jumped on the "stay at home" bandwagon. They just sent me an email that they have closed all state parks to save the 1% who may die from the dreaded super virus. Texas was once a great state.

[dodge_guy]

wilber1 wrote:

dodge guy wrote:



And 80,000 people died of the flu in 2017. I don't remember a shut down then? At the rate of 22,000 right now, that would be 66,000 by the end of the year. I don't see the issue that requires the country to be shut down.

23,500 have died since March 13, at that rate it would be more like 200,000 by the end of the year.

Where did you get that number. I went back to January and got the 22k.
Again, people die, it's a fact of life. And nature is telling us here are too many people on the earth. Yes it sounds mean, but tell that to nature!

[Turtle_n_Peeps]

wilber1 wrote:

dodge guy wrote:



And 80,000 people died of the flu in 2017. I don't remember a shut down then? At the rate of 22,000 right now, that would be 66,000 by the end of the year. I don't see the issue that requires the country to be shut down.

23,500 have died since March 13, at that rate it would be more like 200,000 by the end of the year.

Are you saying the doctors at the CDC are wrong and you're correct when they say around 60K are going to die in the US?
CDC predictions.

[DallasSteve]

I saw this thought-provoking comment on the MIT Technology Review which supports the idea that many lives will also be lost if we continue the shutdown. Some of the know-it-alls here will way "What do the eggheads at MIT know?" Anyway, I don't agree with their conclusion completely, but it is more reasonable than the current course.

"The people losing these low-wage service jobs were already experiencing skyrocketing mortality rates from what economists have begun calling 'deaths of despair,' caused by alcoholism, drug abuse, and suicide. The coming crash could make things much worse."

Sounds a lot like something I posted here.

Stop COVID Or Save The Economy

[time2roll]

Also consider that since 1918 the US population has about tripled.

And we have a proportionately older population today.

[rltorpey]

pianotuna wrote:

rltorpey wrote:
Those low testing numbers you refer to translate into almost 3 million tests which is more than any other nation in the world and more than the next two nations combined. You won't find any cases if you don't test for them.

Covid 19 Statistics

The numbers of tests done in USA is about 1/2 of the number done in Germany. Many other countries are doing more per capita than USA.

Total tests reported as of today:

US 2,938,148
Germany 1,317,887

Per capita, Germany and many other countries have tested more people but the US has still tested roughly 1.6 million more people than the country with the second most tests, Germany. If you test an additional 1.6 million people you're probably going to find a couple more cases of Covid-19.

If you want to talk total cases per capita, the US and Germany aren't too far apart right now with the US listed at 1773 cases per million and Germany listed at 1552 cases per million.

The biggest problem is that most of this data from all of the countries involved is highly suspect. It's impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions from incomplete and highly suspect data.

[Lantley]

wilber1 wrote:

dodge guy wrote:



And 80,000 people died of the flu in 2017. I don't remember a shut down then? At the rate of 22,000 right now, that would be 66,000 by the end of the year. I don't see the issue that requires the country to be shut down.

23,500 have died since March 13, at that rate it would be more like 200,000 by the end of the year.

Now that the math has been corrected does an additional 150,000 deaths change your mind.
During the pandemic of 1917 Spanish Flu. I believe 675,000 died. That's what we are trying to avoid.

[pianotuna]

rltorpey wrote:
Those low testing numbers you refer to translate into almost 3 million tests which is more than any other nation in the world and more than the next two nations combined. You won't find any cases if you don't test for them.

Covid 19 Statistics

The numbers of tests done in USA is about 1/2 of the number done in Germany. Many other countries are doing more per capita than USA.

[wilber1]

dodge guy wrote:



And 80,000 people died of the flu in 2017. I don't remember a shut down then? At the rate of 22,000 right now, that would be 66,000 by the end of the year. I don't see the issue that requires the country to be shut down.

23,500 have died since March 13, at that rate it would be more like 200,000 by the end of the year.

[Boon_Docker]

Your math is a bit off.

At the rate of deaths right now (23,500 in 47 days) will amount to 182,000 in one years time. Compared to 80,000 flu deaths in 2017 ( 1 years time).

[dodge_guy]

way2roll wrote:

wnjj wrote:

Boon Docker wrote:
Wow!
The US has 5% of the worlds population and 30% of the confirmed cases in the whole world.
For the authorities or anyone else advocating the lifting of the lock down is absolutely clueless beyond belief.
I'm sure glad I live in Canada where common sense still prevails.

Did you consider how many tests are available in India, or how much truthful information come from China? Baseless percentages sure make things look bad, don't they?

Per the CDC - 22,000 people have died in the past 30 days due to the COVID in the US alone. that's a real number - although I have a feeling that you will find some way to say it's false news, or incorrect due to some data error because you obviously hold PHD's in statistics and disease control and somehow can refute these numbers.

So question for you, Where's YOUR evidence that the mandatory shutdown will kill more people than that? What's the number and at what rate? Links and supporting data is always helpful.

And 80,000 people died of the flu in 2017. I don't remember a shut down then? At the rate of 22,000 right now, that would be 66,000 by the end of the year. I don't see the issue that requires the country to be shut down.

[fj12ryder]

ExxWhy wrote:
...

I have also seen no one call for drop everything, lets get back to work. Just because some advocate a more extreme position of isolation, doesn't mean those of us who want to get things going are extreme the other way. It should be reasonable to lift restrictions where the cases are few. Which is a large part of the country! Keep restrictions in the hot spots. Find a balance!

An excellent summing up. Reasonable and non-reactionary.

[Lwiddis]

Who are “they?” State? Counties? Cities?

[4x4van]

In California, they have declared that campgrounds are "essential" businesses, and therefore can stay open, since they are useful to alleviate housing shortages.

[Lwiddis]

Texas...

April 13 - 13,906 infected 287 deaths

April 12 - 13,484 infected and 271 deaths
April 10 - 12,561 cases and 254 deaths
April 9 - 10,230 infected and 199 deaths

[ExxWhy]

way2roll wrote:

ExxWhy wrote:
What conditions have I changed to suit my argument? Simple question for you. Does the current situation with the economy largely shut down cost lives or not?

This banter back and forth is tiresome especially with someone who refutes evidence to start with. You ask questions that you don't really want truthful answers to. Tons of evidence to support that the shutdown has mitigated and slowed transmission. In other words, things would be much worse. You don't think that more sick or dead wouldn't be a drain on the economy? I'd provide links, but when anyone has done so you don't seem to think it has any value. So this is a moot point. Your arguments are largely baseless and completely slanted to so suit your agenda. If you think walking over bodies to save the economy is a good tactic, then I am thankful for the powers that be disagree with you. In any pandemic the most effective methods of control are quarantine to slow the progression and transmission. My teenager understands that. If you don't quarantine, things spread faster and more people die. It's not a difficult concept to grasp. Well, maybe it is to some... You obviously think what you want to think, Good luck to you.

I do recall refuting some "evidence" earlier in the thread, was that your CNN story about the nurse dispute or the NY Times line around the block? I asked legit questions about that "journalism". I received no answers.

I also ask a legit question about does a long shutdown cost lives? Again, crickets.

I have seen no one say the shutdown has not slowed the spread of the virus anywhere in this thread. I'm sure it has. I think it is fair to say it has also dramatically slowed the spread of the common flu. It has certainly reduced deaths from car accidents and improved air quality.

I have also seen no one call for drop everything, lets get back to work. Just because some advocate a more extreme position of isolation, doesn't mean those of us who want to get things going are extreme the other way. It should be reasonable to lift restrictions where the cases are few. Which is a large part of the country! Keep restrictions in the hot spots. Find a balance!