The Future of Pricing

[lawnspecialties]

Although on many peoples' minds, I don't see much discussion. But I may have just missed it.

We sold our last toy hauler and F450 four years ago. Our youngest son started college so we figured we'd step back and punt. Use that money to help with college and save up for our next toy hauler just for me and the wife. I honestly figured (in 2018) that we would easily have been in another toy hauler by now. But then Covid hit.

I paid $72,000 for our Vengeance 40D12 in 2016. I paid just under $80,000 out the door for my 2017 F450 with the Ford extended warranty. Now, a similar toy hauler is at least $50,000 more and the truck is pushing $100,000 if you can find one. As badly as I miss it, I just can't justify this.

I don't think we'll ever see the prices I paid four years ago; especially on the campers. But will it get much better? Our dreams were possibly getting into a Luxe this time but now a Momentum, Valor, Cyclone, etc. are running around those 2018 Luxe prices. And now Luxe is hovering $250,000.

My biggest fear is if I give in and buy something, within six months the market crashes and I have horrible buyer's remorse. I know RVs aren't an economical investment but at the same time, I feel like I'm waiting to time the market like Bitcoin.

Any opinions on the future of RV pricing? The same thing for trucks?

[lawnspecialties]

JaxDad wrote:
One of the interesting trends I’m seeing happen up here ‘north of the border’ is vendors (both private and stealerships) starting to refer to units as “cottages”.

I asked a sales person (I was there getting parts and wandered out into the sales floor) and he made no bones about explaining it, “a traditional ‘cottage’ starts at $750k and it makes an RV seem like a screaming bargain regardless of the price.”.

:S

You can get a new 3000 sq ft house here in central NC for $750K.

[JaxDad]

One of the interesting trends I’m seeing happen up here ‘north of the border’ is vendors (both private and stealerships) starting to refer to units as “cottages”.

I asked a sales person (I was there getting parts and wandered out into the sales floor) and he made no bones about explaining it, “a traditional ‘cottage’ starts at $750k and it makes an RV seem like a screaming bargain regardless of the price.”.

[bucky]

lawnspecialties wrote:

bucky wrote:
We were at the Raleigh RV show last weekend. Prices were stupid, like really stupid.
There were several 5ers priced at around $250K "sale price" and nothing special TTs into the $70s. Browsers were everywhere. The little sales tables behind curtains between units were empty and every dealer in the state was there trying to move units. It was the biggest show in unit counts that I remember.
The best deal of the show was a used 2021 Tiffin pusher in the mid $200s.

A $250K fifth wheel at the fall show? That's ridiculous. Mobile Suites?

We're in Garner. I opted not to go to the show this year because 1. the last couple of shows we've been to here were weak and 2. they hardly ever have toy haulers anymore.

But I did have a friend do a trade-in at the show on his GD Imagine for a 2023 GD Reflection 5er at Bill Plemmons. He was pretty happy for the most part.

One was a DRV, didn't see a Mobile Suites. If you walked straight up the hill from the entrance they were on the left. I've tossed the event paper or I could ID the dealer. ShawRV had the entire PNC building. They are pretty local to us, right up the road in Youngsville.
My bride wasn't feeling well or we would have stayed longer. there was a lot to see for once.

[propchef]

SJ-Chris wrote:
Just one data point....

Using Cruise America rental fleet sales as a data point, RV prices are still up 60-70% from 2019. I bought a couple then, and I know what they are selling for now.

On a slightly related note...Home prices shot up incredible amounts over the last 3 years, and now they are taking large steps down in price.

I expect RV prices will reduce over the coming year or two. Not to the same levels they were, but lower than they are now.

-Chris

Large steps down? Not in San Jose (from your sig) where Redfin reports sales prices .8% UP over last year. What's been slowing is the pace of sales (number of units sold) and the rate of price increases.

I've seen a settling of the market, but nothing approaching "large steps down."

[SJ-Chris]

Just one data point....

Using Cruise America rental fleet sales as a data point, RV prices are still up 60-70% from 2019. I bought a couple then, and I know what they are selling for now.

On a slightly related note...Home prices shot up incredible amounts over the last 3 years, and now they are taking large steps down in price.

I expect RV prices will reduce over the coming year or two. Not to the same levels they were, but lower than they are now.

-Chris

[lawnspecialties]

bucky wrote:
We were at the Raleigh RV show last weekend. Prices were stupid, like really stupid.
There were several 5ers priced at around $250K "sale price" and nothing special TTs into the $70s. Browsers were everywhere. The little sales tables behind curtains between units were empty and every dealer in the state was there trying to move units. It was the biggest show in unit counts that I remember.
The best deal of the show was a used 2021 Tiffin pusher in the mid $200s.

A $250K fifth wheel at the fall show? That's ridiculous. Mobile Suites?

We're in Garner. I opted not to go to the show this year because 1. the last couple of shows we've been to here were weak and 2. they hardly ever have toy haulers anymore.

But I did have a friend do a trade-in at the show on his GD Imagine for a 2023 GD Reflection 5er at Bill Plemmons. He was pretty happy for the most part.

[bucky]

We were at the Raleigh RV show last weekend. Prices were stupid, like really stupid.
There were several 5ers priced at around $250K "sale price" and nothing special TTs into the $70s. Browsers were everywhere. The little sales tables behind curtains between units were empty and every dealer in the state was there trying to move units. It was the biggest show in unit counts that I remember.
The best deal of the show was a used 2021 Tiffin pusher in the mid $200s.

[PButler96]

thomasmnile wrote:

dedmiston wrote:
"In the long run, we are all dead."

~ John Maynard Keynes

No truer words spoken........


For perspective RE: OP's concern. Bought a Jayco WhiteHawk 10 years ago, the particular floorplan was $25K OTD price in 2012.

The current floorplan, though a different designation (still a couples' trailer) has ballooned in both size (a little) and price (a lot!). I looked a year ago for fun, $48K "MSRP".

We are not going back from whence we came........and an RV will still depreciate at breakneck speed.

Except that the price increases this time, which were massive, came in a short time period, and amounted to 30 to 40 %. Typically yearly price increases on RVs were hundreds or a thousand bucks, not $10,000.00 or $15,000.00. First because of Covid, and then because of materials pricing like $40 sheets of 1/2" OSB which could be had for $5.00 prior to Covid. When the economy tanks (which is happening now) those materials prices will drop like a rock. The Covid RV sales boom in long over, which saturated the market.

[WinMinnie02]

Prices will increase for RV's and trucks, however, you may be able to negotiate when sales decline. Lucky to have bought new 20 years ago and maintained it and used it. If you did not miss the lifestyle while not having the rv and truck, minivan/airbnb may be better options. Will continue rving until health reasons or they take away our gas.

[thomasmnile]

dedmiston wrote:
"In the long run, we are all dead."

~ John Maynard Keynes

No truer words spoken........


For perspective RE: OP's concern. Bought a Jayco WhiteHawk 10 years ago, the particular floorplan was $25K OTD price in 2012.

The current floorplan, though a different designation (still a couples' trailer) has ballooned in both size (a little) and price (a lot!). I looked a year ago for fun, $48K "MSRP".

We are not going back from whence we came........and an RV will still depreciate at breakneck speed.

[Walaby]

I do not believe we will ever see prices the way they were pre-Covid. On anything.

Historically, once we, as a society, become "accustomed" to paying the new price, it never gets back to the old price. There is little to no incentive for RV dealers or manufacturers to deal the way they did pre-Covid.

I can see waiting through the off season, assuming you don't camp during said "off season". We try to go somewhere at least once a month, but that's not everyone.

Mike

[PButler96]

I started getting emails again from a couple of RV dealers promoting "sales". Have not seen those emails for quite awhile.

I got one from Kia today promoting prices $1000.00 below MSRP on in stock and incoming vehicles.

They both see the storm coming.

[Lwiddis]

I agree wit Tvov. Buy now! Go camping! Time waits for no man or woman. Let the kids pay for their education.

[lenr]

As I write we are sitting 1 county away from the heart of Indiana RV country, and we were over there the last 3 days of last week. All of the transport lots that we saw (except 1) were plugged to the gills with RVs ready for delivery, and there are plenty sitting round the manufacturing plants. I haven't seen an RV lot from here to Florida in 6 months that wasn't at least 70% full. One of the industry news magazines has reported that manufacturing has declined around 30%. The industry has a history of predicting recessions, and the Fed has said a recession is likely. IMHO prices are going to hold steady or go down. Of course, dealers will still try to convince one that there is a shortage. Fall will be the best time to buy if the dealers get smart, but with downward price pressure coming spring may be just as good. With the current market pressures I wouldn't buy anything for more than a 35% discount. It should also be a good time to buy used. Trucks are a completely different story--They haven't recovered as fast as the RV industry. For instance, Ford won't accept 2023 Super Duty orders from dealers until October 17 for a manufacturing start next year.

[Lantley]

Not sure of your age. But I do know you can't buy time.
At this point time is a bigger enemy than $$$.
Don't do anything irrational, but waiting years for a better price only squanders years of camping