Vacation Home Buying Fizzling. RV's too?

[harryjr]

How many think this article from the Washington Post could be reprinted substituting "RV's and Boats" for "Vacation Homes"? Those monthly payments are going to start looking ugly when you're finding it hard to pay for gas and food.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/04/pandemics-vacation-home-buying-frenzy-beginning-fizzle/

[Wade44]

way2roll wrote:
Housing prices are up because there is a shortage of homes in desirable areas. Lots of demand, no supply. We see supply and demand issues affecting literally everything right now, mostly a fallout of Covid. This is a completely different and normal part of economics and the sky is not falling. The Fed is increasing rates to help curb inflation caused by this unpredicted supply and demand issue. Not to mention they haven't raised rates in a very long time. It's not doom and gloom.

I wonder what $11.00 2X6X93-5/8" studs and $37.00 sheets of 7/16" OSB have to do with it LOL. I never knew how much I enjoyed the Lowe's Saturday special every once in awhile with the $4.97 7/16" OSB.

I look at it all using other barometers however, such as my fertilizer costs, some of which are up over 400% which is unprecedented, it's new territory and its gotten / going to get ugly. I won't get started on diesel / fuel prices. The sky fell over a year ago and you're walking on it, it is soon going to crack. You can not eat your house.

[wapiticountry]

valhalla360 wrote:

way2roll wrote:
I worked as an analyst in the REO division of a large bank for years right around the big bubble. Maybe your geography is different but houses are not money pits. Statistically speaking, houses almost always are an appreciating asset. And in my neck of the woods, I've seen exponentially less used RV's for sale than the past 2 years.

Reality falls somewhere in the middle.

It's fun to talk about the little old couple who bought a $30k house in 1950 and the kids are selling it for $1million but that's really an unusual case and when you back calculate the annual return, it's not that great and it ignores all the costs that go into supporting a house for 70yrs.

If you are more typical (average duration of ownership is around 7yrs), the transaction costs of buying/selling typically eats up most if not all of the appreciation.

RVs are obviously worse as depreciating assets but houses are not the investments that the real estate industry promotes.

In terms of the market bubbles and the impact of rising interest rates, expect both to take a big hit as the Fed tries to get inflation under control after stoking the fires.

Factor in the utility value of shelter and home ownership becomes extremely profitable. Like you said, you have to live somewhere. Unless it’s under a bridge or in your parent’s basement that shelter costs a lot of money.

[ferndaleflyer]

Maybe. I have one place I bought for $43,000 and was offered 1/2 a million 1 week ago. Bought another for $67,000 took $100,000 of timber off of it and sold for $450,000. No outside closing costs or other fees to bleed my profit. I pay cash and sell for the same. You seen the stock market the last few days? And a loss by supporting a house, be real you got to live some where.

[way2roll]

valhalla360 wrote:

way2roll wrote:
I worked as an analyst in the REO division of a large bank for years right around the big bubble. Maybe your geography is different but houses are not money pits. Statistically speaking, houses almost always are an appreciating asset. And in my neck of the woods, I've seen exponentially less used RV's for sale than the past 2 years.

Reality falls somewhere in the middle.

It's fun to talk about the little old couple who bought a $30k house in 1950 and the kids are selling it for $1million but that's really an unusual case and when you back calculate the annual return, it's not that great and it ignores all the costs that go into supporting a house for 70yrs.

If you are more typical (average duration of ownership is around 7yrs), the transaction costs of buying/selling typically eats up most if not all of the appreciation.

RVs are obviously worse as depreciating assets but houses are not the investments that the real estate industry promotes.

In terms of the market bubbles and the impact of rising interest rates, expect both to take a big hit as the Fed tries to get inflation under control after stoking the fires.

Don't confuse cost of ownership with the value of the asset. If a house one year sells for $100k and 2 years later sells for $150k, that's an increase in the absolute value of the home by $50k. Pretty much everything you buy has a cost of ownership. But an asset's value is it's value. And homes almost always increase in value. How you manage a sale becomes a factor of net proceeds but does not impact the value. And transaction costs of buying and selling are usually around 5-7%. Hardly eating the net profit. Cumulated annual property taxes are the biggest bite to a net income on most homes but again they don't change the value.

Rv's on the other hand, as you stated, are a depreciating asset. Most things are depreciating assets. Hardly anything outside of collectibles increase in value. But homes and land do.

[valhalla360]

way2roll wrote:
I worked as an analyst in the REO division of a large bank for years right around the big bubble. Maybe your geography is different but houses are not money pits. Statistically speaking, houses almost always are an appreciating asset. And in my neck of the woods, I've seen exponentially less used RV's for sale than the past 2 years.

Reality falls somewhere in the middle.

It's fun to talk about the little old couple who bought a $30k house in 1950 and the kids are selling it for $1million but that's really an unusual case and when you back calculate the annual return, it's not that great and it ignores all the costs that go into supporting a house for 70yrs.

If you are more typical (average duration of ownership is around 7yrs), the transaction costs of buying/selling typically eats up most if not all of the appreciation.

RVs are obviously worse as depreciating assets but houses are not the investments that the real estate industry promotes.

In terms of the market bubbles and the impact of rising interest rates, expect both to take a big hit as the Fed tries to get inflation under control after stoking the fires.

[way2roll]

restlessways wrote:

Grit dog wrote:
We have a lot of “financial analysts” on here with a lot of time on their hands I see…lol.
Since I’m sort of stuck, NOT liquidating our truck, camper and boat now, for a healthy return I might add, I’m not actually waiting for things to tank.
But I also am. 2008-09 were great years for us. Bought a new truck, new boat and a lot of property for a nice discount! Hoping 2023-24 are the same.

I see a lot of speculators who want to ignore reality and financial bubbles. While everybody and their brother has been loading up on debt, buying houses and everything else they can't afford, I've been stacking cash and precious metals. I'll add another $30,000 to my hoard by this fall.

Last real estate crash I bought acreage for 85% off. The sucker who lost it to the bank barely put anything down at all. By the time I bought it it was "cash only," "as is." Same thing is baked into the cake. I'm seeing some hilarious, if not sad, situations play out. People who can't even afford to drive their "new" pickup truck because of fuel prices and the payments, etc.

The Nasdaq is down almost 30% from its highs ALREADY. Some individual stocks have suffered 80%+ declines, yet all these people high on credit are whistling past the graveyard. I will be visiting this thread over the course of the next several years as these bold gamblers disappear into the ether.

What data do you have to support that everyone is loaded up on debt and living beyond their means? This past year allowed me to become virtually debt free. Certainly the folks selling these homes at historic highs are raking in the cash. People buying homes over fair market value have to supplement the difference in cash to prevent a negative equity situation. I think you are making assumptions that because a lot of people bought houses or RV's in the past 2 years they are all in over their head. In reality, 2 years of COVID has allowed many to save a lot of money and eliminate a lot of debt and move to more affordable locations. Banks are offering all kinds of cash back incentives to get people to borrow because debt usage is low.

[restlessways]

Grit dog wrote:
We have a lot of “financial analysts” on here with a lot of time on their hands I see…lol.
Since I’m sort of stuck, NOT liquidating our truck, camper and boat now, for a healthy return I might add, I’m not actually waiting for things to tank.
But I also am. 2008-09 were great years for us. Bought a new truck, new boat and a lot of property for a nice discount! Hoping 2023-24 are the same.

I see a lot of speculators who want to ignore reality and financial bubbles. While everybody and their brother has been loading up on debt, buying houses and everything else they can't afford, I've been stacking cash and precious metals. I'll add another $30,000 to my hoard by this fall.

Last real estate crash I bought acreage for 85% off. The sucker who lost it to the bank barely put anything down at all. By the time I bought it it was "cash only," "as is." Same thing is baked into the cake. I'm seeing some hilarious, if not sad, situations play out. People who can't even afford to drive their "new" pickup truck because of fuel prices and the payments, etc.

The Nasdaq is down almost 30% from its highs ALREADY. Some individual stocks have suffered 80%+ declines, yet all these people high on credit are whistling past the graveyard. I will be visiting this thread over the course of the next several years as these bold gamblers disappear into the ether.

[Grit_dog]

We have a lot of “financial analysts” on here with a lot of time on their hands I see…lol.
Since I’m sort of stuck, NOT liquidating our truck, camper and boat now, for a healthy return I might add, I’m not actually waiting for things to tank.
But I also am. 2008-09 were great years for us. Bought a new truck, new boat and a lot of property for a nice discount! Hoping 2023-24 are the same.

[wapiticountry]

restlessways wrote:
I hear the same bogus arguments this time around as I did back in 2008 when the whole housing market took a dump. People never learn. I work on houses for a living. They are money pits, not magical money trees.

Not only is the housing market already tanking, RVs, boats, trucks, cars and everything else are following suit. Interest rates on mortgages have doubled since last August. That means the average house payment is up over 1/3 since that time, and we're talking houses that are at the pinnacle price peak of the biggest real estate bubble in history.

The entire situation was completely unsustainable, and now it's time to get ready for the fallout. I'm already seeing WAY more used RVs for sale than just a month ago. When money gets tight, the toys are the first to go. Forget a crashing housing market, I'm anticipating everything else crashing much worse before then, because it's all interest rate sensitive. For somebody like me who purchases things in cash, I will be enjoying watching this unfold.

. Please send some of that tanking Truck and boat markets my way. Local dealers have literally no inventory for sale. One local dealer advertises the have withheld one truck from sale so potential customer to test drive before ordering. Other dealers are running ads offering to buy your car or truck with nary a peep about having something available to actually sell.
Boats are the same. No inventory, or boats available without the outboard motor which the dealer will only commit to having “hopefully in three months”. I can get on a list in case someone backs out when their ordered boat comes in, but the dealer said the list is so long it is very unlikely a boat similar to what I am seeking will be available this boating season.
Of course it is inevitable the current markets will eventually peak, inventories will recover, and prices will moderate. But when and at what levels? If it is in 2023 and prices fall 10% it sure isn’t worth it to me to miss a boating season or drive my old truck in hopes of getting that 10%. And what if that 10% fall in prices only happens after another 15% run up?
Finally, your premise homes aren’t a money generating machine has been proven inaccurate throughout history. Over the long term home ownership has proven to appreciate in value, even if you bought at market peaks. There are rare exceptions that are location specific, but home ownership is the average Americans greatest wealth building tool.

[way2roll]

restlessways wrote:
I hear the same bogus arguments this time around as I did back in 2008 when the whole housing market took a dump. People never learn. I work on houses for a living. They are money pits, not magical money trees.

Not only is the housing market already tanking, RVs, boats, trucks, cars and everything else are following suit. Interest rates on mortgages have doubled since last August. That means the average house payment is up over 1/3 since that time, and we're talking houses that are at the pinnacle price peak of the biggest real estate bubble in history.

The entire situation was completely unsustainable, and now it's time to get ready for the fallout. I'm already seeing WAY more used RVs for sale than just a month ago. When money gets tight, the toys are the first to go. Forget a crashing housing market, I'm anticipating everything else crashing much worse before then, because it's all interest rate sensitive. For somebody like me who purchases things in cash, I will be enjoying watching this unfold.

I worked as an analyst in the REO division of a large bank for years right around the big bubble. Maybe your geography is different but houses are not money pits. Statistically speaking, houses almost always are an appreciating asset. And in my neck of the woods, I've seen exponentially less used RV's for sale than the past 2 years. The bubble from 2008 was caused by investors buying and flipping homes and no doc loans that essentially provided anyone with a face way more credit than they could afford. The loans were set up to fail because all the large major banks and hedge funds were buying and promoting poor loan paper and insuring against it's failure. They wanted it to fail. They made billions on the insurance. It was a complete set up. Completely different scenario than today. Most homes being bought now are consumers who ended up with a bit more cash due to being dormant during COVID and are exiting large metropolitan areas because they can work remote or got new jobs in a location with a lower cost of living. Housing prices are up because there is a shortage of homes in desirable areas. Lots of demand, no supply. We see supply and demand issues affecting literally everything right now, mostly a fallout of Covid. This is a completely different and normal part of economics and the sky is not falling. The Fed is increasing rates to help curb inflation caused by this unpredicted supply and demand issue. Not to mention they haven't raised rates in a very long time. It's not doom and gloom.

[restlessways]

I hear the same bogus arguments this time around as I did back in 2008 when the whole housing market took a dump. People never learn. I work on houses for a living. They are money pits, not magical money trees.

Not only is the housing market already tanking, RVs, boats, trucks, cars and everything else are following suit. Interest rates on mortgages have doubled since last August. That means the average house payment is up over 1/3 since that time, and we're talking houses that are at the pinnacle price peak of the biggest real estate bubble in history.

The entire situation was completely unsustainable, and now it's time to get ready for the fallout. I'm already seeing WAY more used RVs for sale than just a month ago. When money gets tight, the toys are the first to go. Forget a crashing housing market, I'm anticipating everything else crashing much worse before then, because it's all interest rate sensitive. For somebody like me who purchases things in cash, I will be enjoying watching this unfold.

[cptqueeg]

^Yes I understand the sailboat market is extremely tight.

[valhalla360]

cptqueeg wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

Just need to drop a few zeros. The ones I'm looking at are in the $30-50k range.

Good luck, the current fuel prices may help you.

Probably not. It's a sailboat, so fuel prices shouldn't have much impact.

[PA12DRVR]

In my locale, nice homes and nice RV's don't last too long.

Newer construction with elevation or lakefront...cash sale, often at a 2-digit premium over list price (i.e. 10% +).

Nice RV's (although always a debate as to what's nice) don't stay around long at all.

...but I believe the rising interest is going to cool the market, albeit in fits and starts. Folks with two comma money (X,XXX,XXX) will keep demand high for the upper end homes and, presumably, RV's even as the funding gets more expensive for otherwise valuable properties that must be financed.

[cptqueeg]

valhalla360 wrote:

cptqueeg wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:
Following a particular model of boat and I've noticed some more realistic prices coming out in the last couple months

I'm not sure prices will crater but I wouldn't be surprised if things settle down to more realistic levels.

Trucks might hold out a bit longer simply due to the supply shortage and the fact they are used for other purposes.

I know where you can get a nice super yacht for 1/2 off so $350 million.

It's only got one spot for a helicopter so it might not meet your needs, however. You might have to send your helicopter to pick up your guests.

Just need to drop a few zeros. The ones I'm looking at are in the $30-50k range.

Good luck, the current fuel prices may help you.