Is the EV transformation of the market over hyped ?

[Lessmore]

Interesting article about IC gas and Diesel and Electrical Vehicles. This would also include tow vehicles.


EV vehicles market domination over hyped ?

In some ways I think the manufacturers are giving us mixed messages. GM says that they will introduce about 20 new EV vehicles by 2023, yet on the other hand have just introduced a new 3 liter , 6 cylinder diesel for their 1500 truck series and new..or at least revamped 6.6 liter IC gas engine and 6.6 liter IC Diesel engine for their 2020 HD pickup truck line.

So what gives, as we used to say in high school ?

[freddmc]

I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

[Lynnmor]

Electric vehicles have been around for way over 100 years, how's that doubling production every year working out? :h

[wnjj]

pianotuna wrote:
2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:
There are about 1 billion cars (not counting trucks) in the world, we made just over 72 million cars in 2016 and there are about 3 million EV's as of 2018. What market penetration? Long way to go.

Doubling a percent or two is one thing. The initial adopters quickly fill that first couple percent but after that it will climb much slower. Unlike your penny analogy, it’s not a geometric progression.

[pianotuna]

2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:
There are about 1 billion cars (not counting trucks) in the world, we made just over 72 million cars in 2016 and there are about 3 million EV's as of 2018. What market penetration? Long way to go.

[ShinerBock]

Groover wrote:
My son has a Model 3, a Nissan Leaf and electric yard equipment. He used to fly RC helicopters competitively and we witnessed the transition from liquid fuel to batteries in the area. He does not expect to ever buy another ICE. I have an assortment of battery powered tools, including a string trimmer and a chainsaw but haven't gone in whole hog as he has. He drives the Model 3 on the job covering a 3 state area and is very happy with it. Between the large battery, the Supercharger network and being able to charge at home and some motels he never feels constrained. On the other hand, the Leaf barely gets his wife to work and back every day. Charging it away from home is a nightmare. Still, very low maintenance is a huge plus for the battery powered vehicles. I am not ready yet to go all electric. I have kept my old liquid fuel powered chainsaws and string trimmers for tougher jobs and will consider hybrids for my next vehicles.

The point here is that battery powered devices are gaining traction and growing market share rapidly. Do batteries work in some applications? Absolutely and they are getting better every day. Are we ready for 100% battery power? Not in my book but 10 years from now I expect them to way outsell ICE engines with ICE engines filling some niche markets, marine and aviation. Meanwhile, a lot of work has to done to supply all that electricity, lower the cost and build thousands of charging stations.

So to answer the question, I think that it is happening now and picking up speed rapidly. Just think about the explosion in battery powered hand tools in the past 25 years. Cars are where hand tools were 20 years ago. But, I do expect to see ICE engines hanging around for quite a few more years, at least in some applications. Just like hand tools.

Great post, but I don't agree on the the fact that BEV's will outsell ICE in ten years. Sure, our current energy infrastructure can probably be able to handle 10% or 15% market share (it is currently slightly over 2%) depending on where you live. However, I don't think it can handle much more than that in the next ten years.

It would require a lot of new energy sources, rebuilding old lines to handle added load, and charging stations at just about every parking lot. What makes this an even greater task is the fact that all this has to be done by seperate entities that have different budgets, different interests, and different views on the best solution. Fifty or sixty years maybe, but not ten. I could be wrong, but the odds of getting all this together in ten years to be able to have EVs take over 50% of market share is very low.

[thomas201]

There are about 1 billion cars (not counting trucks) in the world, we made just over 72 million cars in 2016 and there are about 3 million EV's as of 2018. What market penetration? Long way to go.

[pianotuna]

I believe prices may equalize. I.E. A Bev, with 20 moving parts may drop a little, but Ice, with over 10,000 parts may increase dramatically in price.

JRscooby wrote:
But as production increases the price should drop. I don't think that everybody moving around in their own car is the best idea, but if a higher percentage where electric it would be better.

[danrclem]

I wouldn't consider buying an EV at this point and things would have to get a lot better before I'd consider buying one in the future.

[colliehauler]

JRscooby wrote:

colliehauler wrote:
JRscooby- For a commuter car or around town they would be great. It would take to long to pay for a EV compared to the savings it would provide for me for a second vehicle. I have started replacing my yard equipment with electric as it wears out. My neighbor is doing likewise with a new electric zero turn mower.

Yes, this is true. But as production increases the price should drop. I don't think that everybody moving around in their own car is the best idea, but if a higher percentage where electric it would be better. As far as that goes, now that DW and I are retired I would love to trade one car for a street legal golf cart and hybrid bicycle. Without the camper, both vehicles could go. When figure how much I spend on maintenance, when I need to leave town rent a car. One of my fears is DW decide she wants to go to a quilt shop half way across the state, and her little car takes a dump. (If I know she is going, "take the pickup") The rental lays down, getting her home might be a problem, but the car is not.

For around town I have a maxi-scooter that gets 60+ mpg. How many lifetimes would a person have to live to realize any savings? EV'S just don't make good economic sense to a lot of people like myself. I can see it working well for people in large metropolitan area's. Several small towns around me allow golf carts and utv's on the street's, the town I live in isn't one of them.

Groover made a comment that I had forgot about. I'm starting to see electric powered pontoon boats entering the market. I thought about doing a project using a electric marine outboard with a canopy made out of solar panels for shade.

[Groover]

My son has a Model 3, a Nissan Leaf and electric yard equipment. He used to fly RC helicopters competitively and we witnessed the transition from liquid fuel to batteries in the area. He does not expect to ever buy another ICE. I have an assortment of battery powered tools, including a string trimmer and a chainsaw but haven't gone in whole hog as he has. He drives the Model 3 on the job covering a 3 state area and is very happy with it. Between the large battery, the Supercharger network and being able to charge at home and some motels he never feels constrained. On the other hand, the Leaf barely gets his wife to work and back every day. Charging it away from home is a nightmare. Still, very low maintenance is a huge plus for the battery powered vehicles. I am not ready yet to go all electric. I have kept my old liquid fuel powered chainsaws and string trimmers for tougher jobs and will consider hybrids for my next vehicles.

The point here is that battery powered devices are gaining traction and growing market share rapidly. Do batteries work in some applications? Absolutely and they are getting better every day. Are we ready for 100% battery power? Not in my book but 10 years from now I expect them to way outsell ICE engines with ICE engines filling some niche markets, marine and aviation. Meanwhile, a lot of work has to done to supply all that electricity, lower the cost and build thousands of charging stations.

So to answer the question, I think that it is happening now and picking up speed rapidly. Just think about the explosion in battery powered hand tools in the past 25 years. Cars are where hand tools were 20 years ago. But, I do expect to see ICE engines hanging around for quite a few more years, at least in some applications. Just like hand tools.

[JRscooby]

colliehauler wrote:
JRscooby- For a commuter car or around town they would be great. It would take to long to pay for a EV compared to the savings it would provide for me for a second vehicle. I have started replacing my yard equipment with electric as it wears out. My neighbor is doing likewise with a new electric zero turn mower.

Yes, this is true. But as production increases the price should drop. I don't think that everybody moving around in their own car is the best idea, but if a higher percentage where electric it would be better. As far as that goes, now that DW and I are retired I would love to trade one car for a street legal golf cart and hybrid bicycle. Without the camper, both vehicles could go. When figure how much I spend on maintenance, when I need to leave town rent a car. One of my fears is DW decide she wants to go to a quilt shop half way across the state, and her little car takes a dump. (If I know she is going, "take the pickup") The rental lays down, getting her home might be a problem, but the car is not.

[colliehauler]

JRscooby- For a commuter car or around town they would be great. It would take to long to pay for a EV compared to the savings it would provide for me for a second vehicle. I have started replacing my yard equipment with electric as it wears out. My neighbor is doing likewise with a new electric zero turn mower.

[Reisender]

Right tool for the right job. If you need to travel 1200 km a day pulling a boat than buy a pickup with a big tank, strap on a pair of depends and 8 bags of cheetos and have at it. If you are like us and travel 600 km a day and then kick back in a full service hotel then buy a comfortable mid range or long range EV and enjoy the day.

I dint think I have ever seen an EV commercial where we are so can’t comment on EV hype. Might be a regional thing. Curious where people are where they are being bombarded with hype. What markets etc. Where we are the only commercials or advertising is for gas cars.

[JRscooby]

Terryallan wrote:


Over hyped, and doing their best to convince you to change your lifestyle to fit their model. EVs are at this time not practical for the vast majority of American people. They may be OK for riding around in the city, or going to the grocery store. But for real traveling, they are pretty much useless.

Vast majority? Not sure about that. From what I see most cars and pickups spend 10+ hours parked at home, drive for less than a hour, spend 8+ parked, drive around a little more, then is parked at home. I would bet 1000 miles a month would cover the "vast majority", and most all spend time parked near a outlet. Now I think it would be great if there where solar panels on the garage, and battery to store the power to charge the car when it got home.

In the morning I will be traveling from the foothills of NC to the Outer Banks of NC. I will be taking the truck as the car cannot carry the gear DW says we need. Now I don't know of a EV that on one charge, will carry all that gear, and run for 8 hours with the AC, and lights on, and has 4x4 to go out on the sand.

Convince me I am wrong.

colliehauler wrote:
When I go North I drive 900 miles in one day only stopping to get fuel and food and use the rest room. Sometimes pulling a RV or boat and hauling a motorcycle.

So which EV will replace my truck? Any EV'S that have a 900 mile range while pulling a 10k pound RV and hauling a 500 pound bike. It would also have to power the A/C and the lights for a few hours of morning driving and evening driving.

It can't have a purchase price over 20k as well since I bought my Diesel used.

I think I will be waiting a while till my parameters are met.

Terry points out he already has one vehicle that will not meet all his needs. And I bet most people that buy new cars have more than one vehicle in the family. With a open mind, I bet many would realize that a EV could replace many of the 2nd cars. And RVers are not a large percentage of car owners. When many travel they catch the bird, then rent a car. For them owning ICE or EV, about same.
I don't think we will ever replace all ICE with EV, but if they get the price down to near the price of a mid level car, I could see 20% or more in 10 years after that, with no change in lifestyle.

[Nv_Guy]

All hype. I recently had the chance to talk EV with a Tesla owner. He is mixed, driving back and forth to his office is fine. Driving to CO from Los Angeles was a PITA due to the need to charge. He also told me the reported range is nowhere near actual range. Kinda like the estimated EPA gas mileage VS real life. With all that being said, when the wife's current vehicle is due for replacement, we will consider an EV, as her weekly mileage is very predictable, and if we take any trips, it's on the F250, so range isn't a big issue. EVs have a way to go before they replace ICE vehicles.