So what is your take on diesel fuel prices after 2020?

[ShinerBock]

For those that do not know, a few years ago the International Maritime Organization made a significant regulation that will have a big impact on everyone's wallet, especially diesel vehicles owners. They set a new standard for sulfur content in ship diesel fuel that they allow at their ports to .5%S by January 1, 2020. That is a significant drop from the current limit. While this will have an impact on everyone's wallet because this new fuel will be more costlier than current fuel used(which will increase prices on everyday goods), it may end up hurting or helping diesel owners according to some analyst.

Many here may remember when the EPA set the ULSD standard and how it effected diesel prices due to the extra refining and purification needed, and causing "sweet" crude prices to increase even more. For years, on land diesel owners alone had to pay the added cost for all of the added refining equipment and processes since the low sulfur fuel was only for them. Diesel fuel refiners also switched to using more "sweet" crude (that was only previously used to make gasoline) due to its lower sulfur content versus less expensive "sour" crude it used before causing the demand(and price) for "sweet" crude to increase.

There are people on both sides of this argument. Some are saying it will cause both diesel and gas prices to skyrocket because it would cause the demand for "sweet" crude to increase even higher. Others are saying that it will cause on road diesel prices to go down because now shipping will also be paying for the added refining processes spreading out the cost for the added piping and other equipment needing to purify "sour" crude.

What is your take on it?

[ghostrider421]

Super_Dave wrote:


I paid more than $4.14 back when gas hit its peak and my state isn't anywhere near the top of the gas prices. I can remember paying $4.28 a gallon for gas because I'm a fan of the 428 Cobra Jet engine and that stuck in my head for some reason. It may have been higher than that at some point but I'm not sure.

Oh, well if you're talking about rocket fuel - $5.19 was the going price last week. Even higher yet are the gas stations out near Orlando Intl for lazy drivers that don't tank before returning the rental cars - $7.50/gal

[danrclem]

ghostrider421 wrote:

Super_Dave wrote:
In the early 2000's I paid over $5/gal for regular gas and still traveled long distances for vacations. So, there is still a lot of room from where we are now before I get too worked up about it.

$5 where? The most expensive pump price for gas was $4.14 and diesel was $4.84/gal in 2008
https://gasprices.aaa.com/

When I lived in Homestead, Fla in those days I paid $3.099 for #2 diesel - based on $99/bbl. Since then prices dropped to less than $2/gal. Last week visiting the same city I paid $3.199 - based on $64/bbl.

The most people would have paid on $160/bbl crude would have been $4.84/gal - but oil never reached that price

I paid more than $4.14 back when gas hit its peak and my state isn't anywhere near the top of the gas prices. I can remember paying $4.28 a gallon for gas because I'm a fan of the 428 Cobra Jet engine and that stuck in my head for some reason. It may have been higher than that at some point but I'm not sure.

[ghostrider421]

Super_Dave wrote:
In the early 2000's I paid over $5/gal for regular gas and still traveled long distances for vacations. So, there is still a lot of room from where we are now before I get too worked up about it.

$5 where? The most expensive pump price for gas was $4.14 and diesel was $4.84/gal in 2008
https://gasprices.aaa.com/

When I lived in Homestead, Fla in those days I paid $3.099 for #2 diesel - based on $99/bbl. Since then prices dropped to less than $2/gal. Last week visiting the same city I paid $3.199 - based on $64/bbl.

The most people would have paid on $160/bbl crude would have been $4.84/gal - but oil never reached that price

[ghostrider421]

Reisender wrote:

ghostrider421 wrote:

carl2591 wrote:
this is going to help push elec more into the mainstream. When diesel goes up gas goes up as well.

I remember when gas got to $4 a gallon I saw a lot of big surburans, ford trucks etc parked and the people had bought a 10 plus your old honda, toyota or hyundai that got 30 MPG vs 12 MPG to cope with the cost.

( i had a g-20 van with 302 v-8 10-12 MPG and when gas got to 1.86 gallon I parked it and went back to '94 toyota king cab pickup truck that with ladders on it got 20 plus MPG so the $4 gas was not a big deal to me or the business)

Now with the tesla 35K elec car coming on line and no need for "gas" they will sell the hell out of them and the big SUV's will sit till vacation time.

This may finally push more and more OTR class 8 tractors to move to LNG systems adn finally companies like Clean Energy will benifit. (CLEN)

To produce electricity - a power plant is necessary - it burns some form of fossil fuel. Solar energy is fading b/c of lack of sun spots. Wind energy kills more birds and are out of service more than half the time. Neither of which are good options.

CNG in commercial OTRs is a solution - UPS has several in their fleets and Westport does the conversions for Cummins. LNG and Methanol are the other two choices - for our commercial tug fleets these work out.

Nope

You might want to do a little fact checking. Less than half of 1 percent of bird kills is by wind turbine. The vast amount (greater than 90 percent) of bird kills is by cats and a lesser amount to vehicles and buildings.

Solar and wind continue to grow.

Many countries produce very little of their power from fossil fuels and renewables continue to increase market share on a world wide basis.

So yah, no.

I do my research in the field and I know my facts - you obviously DON'T or you are a promoter of wind turbines. Do you work for Siemens now?

We are in a down cycle for solar activity which means solar flares and sunspots have diminished, thus the earthquakes will increase - already up 20% from 2016-17. Not all quakes are caused by fracking. And, not all are on faults. EU countries still use nuclear power - which is the cheapest producer of electricty.

[Reisender]

ghostrider421 wrote:

carl2591 wrote:
this is going to help push elec more into the mainstream. When diesel goes up gas goes up as well.

I remember when gas got to $4 a gallon I saw a lot of big surburans, ford trucks etc parked and the people had bought a 10 plus your old honda, toyota or hyundai that got 30 MPG vs 12 MPG to cope with the cost.

( i had a g-20 van with 302 v-8 10-12 MPG and when gas got to 1.86 gallon I parked it and went back to '94 toyota king cab pickup truck that with ladders on it got 20 plus MPG so the $4 gas was not a big deal to me or the business)

Now with the tesla 35K elec car coming on line and no need for "gas" they will sell the hell out of them and the big SUV's will sit till vacation time.

This may finally push more and more OTR class 8 tractors to move to LNG systems adn finally companies like Clean Energy will benifit. (CLEN)

To produce electricity - a power plant is necessary - it burns some form of fossil fuel. Solar energy is fading b/c of lack of sun spots. Wind energy kills more birds and are out of service more than half the time. Neither of which are good options.

CNG in commercial OTRs is a solution - UPS has several in their fleets and Westport does the conversions for Cummins. LNG and Methanol are the other two choices - for our commercial tug fleets these work out.

Nope

You might want to do a little fact checking. Less than half of 1 percent of bird kills is by wind turbine. The vast amount (greater than 90 percent) of bird kills is by cats and a lesser amount to vehicles and buildings.

Solar and wind continue to grow.

Many countries produce very little of their power from fossil fuels and renewables continue to increase market share on a world wide basis.

So yah, no.

[carl2591]

From what i have seen in CA the wind turbines are going more than not. but i understand your point. Solar on the other hand is getting bigger every year. I know folks that work for a large solar company that works with the large elec companies on the east coast and they are not slowing down on solar installs.. (the lack of sunspots making dramatic effect on solar is fake news by the way) As long as the sun shines solar works..

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/sunspots-and-solar-output/

Now is that all the time?? NO.. clouds rains, snow etc can reduce the output of solar and the need for "regular" power plants still exist. In my area of NC a lot of the older coal power plants have been torn down and rebuilt powered by clean Nat Gas. Yes there are still coal fired plants around as it take time and money to replace the aging plants.

Its too bad in the 80's the environmental wacko were successful in making Nuclear energy the bad guy.. by and large NP is the cleanest and safest form of power generation next to hydo but you gotta dam up rivers, flood large quantities of land which is not good thing for the folks living in the area.

LNG is also used in OTR tractors which is easier to install, maintain and less costly to operate.

[ghostrider421]

carl2591 wrote:
this is going to help push elec more into the mainstream. When diesel goes up gas goes up as well.

I remember when gas got to $4 a gallon I saw a lot of big surburans, ford trucks etc parked and the people had bought a 10 plus your old honda, toyota or hyundai that got 30 MPG vs 12 MPG to cope with the cost.

( i had a g-20 van with 302 v-8 10-12 MPG and when gas got to 1.86 gallon I parked it and went back to '94 toyota king cab pickup truck that with ladders on it got 20 plus MPG so the $4 gas was not a big deal to me or the business)

Now with the tesla 35K elec car coming on line and no need for "gas" they will sell the hell out of them and the big SUV's will sit till vacation time.

This may finally push more and more OTR class 8 tractors to move to LNG systems adn finally companies like Clean Energy will benifit. (CLEN)

To produce electricity - a power plant is necessary - it burns some form of fossil fuel. Solar energy is fading b/c of lack of sun spots. Wind energy kills more birds and are out of service more than half the time. Neither of which are good options.

CNG in commercial OTRs is a solution - UPS has several in their fleets and Westport does the conversions for Cummins. LNG and Methanol are the other two choices - for our commercial tug fleets these work out.

[memtb]

Depending upon which team wins....there may not be any diesel after 2020!

[carl2591]

this is going to help push elec more into the mainstream. When diesel goes up gas goes up as well.

I remember when gas got to $4 a gallon I saw a lot of big surburans, ford trucks etc parked and the people had bought a 10 plus your old honda, toyota or hyundai that got 30 MPG vs 12 MPG to cope with the cost.

( i had a g-20 van with 302 v-8 10-12 MPG and when gas got to 1.86 gallon I parked it and went back to '94 toyota king cab pickup truck that with ladders on it got 20 plus MPG so the $4 gas was not a big deal to me or the business)

Now with the tesla 35K elec car coming on line and no need for "gas" they will sell the hell out of them and the big SUV's will sit till vacation time.

This may finally push more and more OTR class 8 tractors to move to LNG systems adn finally companies like Clean Energy will benifit. (CLEN)

[ShinerBock]

It is true that supply/demand has an effect on prices, but so does cost of goods manufactured which is what this thread was about. It was not about the added cost do to supply/demand, it was about the new added cost from added refining costs which also affects the cost of everything transported on these ships.

[Durb]

The thread is titled diesel prices after 2020. I believe the election will have more bearing on fuel prices than sulphur content. One party wants to eliminate fossil fuel production altogether, the other wants to expand it. Supply will dictate the price.

[ppine]

Diesel is a less refined fuel than gasoline. For years it was cheaper than gas. Now it costs more due to taxes and the removal of S and other formulations. Upward pressure on fuel costs will eventually make diesel cheaper than gas because we can make it from many different sources besides dino oil.

[Gulfcoast]

I will stick with diesel.

[Super_Dave]

In the early 2000's I paid over $5/gal for regular gas and still traveled long distances for vacations. So, there is still a lot of room from where we are now before I get too worked up about it.