CDC and the government may be loosening the lockdown

[agesilaus]

News

The states still control this tho but I would expect a lot of states to follow the suggestions. Not the Plague Centers tho. So maybe we will be able to RV again.

We are going out to find some cotton material that can be used to make washable masks. They recommend the stuff like tee shirts are made of. 6 or 8 layers. It will not stop viruses but will stop spray from coughs and sneezes.

[wnjj]

RambleOnNW wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
The actual truth is that none of the folks you link to know, you don't know and I don't know. And if it is ever known it will be after this is all over. Tho I doubt we will ever get good numbers on that. The CDC on modeling has shown itself to be less than reliable and tends to the hysterical. But doctors always do so. It's in their nature to be over cautious.

Actually I do know. All the people listed as dying from Covid-19 died from Covid-19 and were certified by coroners offices.

And many more died from Covid-19 and were not tested by coroners offices due to lack of tests for the last 2.5 months.

Here is the most recent guidance from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf. It gives direction to use Covid-19 as the cause of death when there’s a “reasonable degree of certainty” to do so. So no testing doesn’t preclude counting them.

Even more interesting is their previous March 4th guidance (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf) where they said, “assumed to have caused or contributed to death.”

Assumed to have contributed? That’s pretty liberal toward increasing the count and could easily offset any missed cases.

[agesilaus]

shastagary wrote:
people act as though the test is the cure.
the test is only good for the moment you took it you could get infected before you get the results it is said that people can carry and be infectious and not know they have it.
so unless you have been in total isolation since the test you may not know you have been exposed after you took the test

Well yeah, as I mentioned above the antibody test in Germany shows that for every person who get treated for WuFlu there are 7 that had it and don't know it, for the most part. Thus they may have been walking around with active infections. Again like almost everything else this falls into the 'we don't know' group. We don't know if folks with silent or minimal infections are infectious. They haven't been tested. The tests have only been given to people with active symptoms.

No I have a question for you folks in the super cautious group. Why would you prevent people from working in your garden around your house and away from others. Why would you stop someone from sitting in his own beach front yard away from other people? Why would you stop people from making repairs and/or improvements on their own house?

It seems that since you are imposing home detention on the population that you would be OK with those people finding productive uses for their time. Why not? But folks are being threatened with arrest and fines if they do the above.

[shastagary]

people act as though the test is the cure.
the test is only good for the moment you took it you could get infected before you get the results it is said that people can carry and be infectious and not know they have it.
so unless you have been in total isolation since the test you may not know you have been exposed after you took the test

[fj12ryder]

RambleOnNW wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
The actual truth is that none of the folks you link to know, you don't know and I don't know. And if it is ever known it will be after this is all over. Tho I doubt we will ever get good numbers on that. The CDC on modeling has shown itself to be less than reliable and tends to the hysterical. But doctors always do so. It's in their nature to be over cautious.

Actually I do know. All the people listed as dying from Covid-19 died from Covid-19 and were certified by coroners offices.

And many more died from Covid-19 and were not tested by coroners offices due to lack of tests for the last 2.5 months.

No offense, but you're much more confident in your assertions than anyone else. Everyone else hedges their bets with "maybe" "perhaps" "we're not sure" "it could be".

[RambleOnNW]

agesilaus wrote:
The actual truth is that none of the folks you link to know, you don't know and I don't know. And if it is ever known it will be after this is all over. Tho I doubt we will ever get good numbers on that. The CDC on modeling has shown itself to be less than reliable and tends to the hysterical. But doctors always do so. It's in their nature to be over cautious.

Actually I do know. All the people listed as dying from Covid-19 died from Covid-19 and were certified by coroners offices.

And many more died from Covid-19 and were not tested by coroners offices due to lack of tests for the last 2.5 months.

[agesilaus]

The actual truth is that none of the folks you link to know, you don't know and I don't know. And if it is ever known it will be after this is all over. Tho I doubt we will ever get good numbers on that. The CDC on modeling has shown itself to be less than reliable and tends to the hysterical. But doctors always do so. It's in their nature to be over cautious.

[RambleOnNW]

agesilaus wrote:
Slate: WuFlu deaths over reported

And you can hardly object to that source

You got the title backwards. The real title is

"Real Coronavirus Death Toll in U.S. Is Higher Than Official Number".

And CDC agrees there is an undercount:

CDC agrees there is an undercount.

and Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fdny-idUSKBN21P3KF

and Alabama:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-may-be-undercounted-in-alabama-doctors-say.html

[Cummins12V98]

wilber1 wrote:

Cummins12V98 wrote:

Walaby wrote:

wilber1 wrote:
If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

98% of those with the virus. NOT 98% of the total population.

Mike

ZACTLY!!!

Cummins12V98 wrote:
98% of the people in the US survive the China Virus.

Your words, not mine. Doesn't say anything about those infected and of course the final number will depend on how many are infected and the health care systems ability to cope.

CORRECT!!!

I should have said

98% of the people INFECTED in the US survive the ChinaVirus.

Thanks!

[wilber1]

Cummins12V98 wrote:

Walaby wrote:

wilber1 wrote:
If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

98% of those with the virus. NOT 98% of the total population.

Mike

ZACTLY!!!

Cummins12V98 wrote:
98% of the people in the US survive the China Virus.

Your words, not mine. Doesn't say anything about those infected and of course the final number will depend on how many are infected and the health care systems ability to cope.

[agesilaus]

Slate: WuFlu deaths over reported

And you can hardly object to that source

[RambleOnNW]

agesilaus wrote:

You can also assume that the death rates are reported low as coroners have been low priority for getting test kits.

Don't see what you are talking about here. Why can we assume that??

Coronavirus deaths are undercounted.

It has been reported in the news.

[wnjj]

agesilaus wrote:
Some town in Germany finally did some moderately large scale antibody testing and found that 15% of the people in town had antibodies. Most probably never knew that they had the WuFlu. If applied to the whole country it woul drop their mortality rate to less than 0.4%:
MIT review

"From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%."

I think that would make the US rate about 0.6%, assuming you could apply those numbers to the US which is a stretch. More antibodies testing results are expected to pour in within the next week or 10 days so we will finally have some data. Sorry to disapoint all those hoping for massive die offs.

That is very interesting, particularly the last quote from the article:

Streeck and colleagues wrote:
They think if people avoid getting big doses of the virus—which can happen in hospitals or via close contact with someone infected—fewer people will become severely ill, “while at the same time developing immunity” that can help finally end the outbreak.

Notice they said “big” doses. i wonder if we are doing more harm than good by completely isolating rather than just avoiding close contact? Maybe a virus cell or two from a grocery bag isn’t a bad thing for most us? The problem is those lab studies where “the virus can live for X time on Y surface” have already succeeded at scaring enough people.

[agesilaus]

You can also assume that the death rates are reported low as coroners have been low priority for getting test kits.

Don't see what you are talking about here. Why can we assume that??

[RambleOnNW]

agesilaus wrote:
Some town in Germany finally did some moderately large scale antibody testing and found that 15% of the people in town had antibodies. Most probably never knew that they had the WuFlu. If applied to the whole country it woul drop their mortality rate to less than 0.4%:
MIT review

"From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%."

I think that would make the US rate about 0.6%, assuming you could apply those numbers to the US which is a stretch. More antibodies testing results are expected to pour in within the next week or 10 days so we will finally have some data. Sorry to disapoint all those hoping for massive die offs.

You can also assume that the death rates are reported low as coroners have been low priority for getting test kits.

[fj12ryder]

"More antibodies testing results are expected to pour in within the next week or 10 days so we will finally have some data."

Much as that sounds wonderful, it's not very likely to happen. There is only one FDA approved antibody test that is quick and accurate, and it just became approved about 10 days ago. This was posted yesterday:

"By next week, Fauci said on CNN, a “rather large number” of antibody tests will be available."

"Large number"? 5,000? 10,000? 100,000? Who knows. They're just pretty darned vague about the actual numbers.