The beginning of a trend? Tipping point reached?

[Ralph_Cramden]

We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

[goducks10]

Doesn't look like it's slowing down at all this year.

http://www.rvbusiness.com/2018/08/18-rv-shipments-projected-to-reach-nearly-506k/

[Charlie_D_]

Pirate wrote:
Noticed on a recent long trip passing saturated RV dealer lots. I can't believe they can move all that inventory.

I also noticed this. RV's on dealer lots is staggering. Cost of floor plan must be staggering.

[bucky]

No wonder sites are getting much harder to find.

I had no idea clicky

[Charlie_D_]

bucky wrote:
Since when is 11.4 percent one tick?

June 2017

[goducks10]

Pirate wrote:
Noticed on a recent long trip passing saturated RV dealer lots. I can't believe they can move all that inventory.

Whats even scarier is I just don't see a lot of used TT/5ers for sale around my area. Not many used ones on the lots. That means that the trade ins are being auctioned or there's not that many trade ins and most buyers are new or getting back in it.

[Pirate1]

Noticed on a recent long trip passing saturated RV dealer lots. I can't believe they can move all that inventory.

[Ralph_Cramden]

goducks10 wrote:

Ralph Cramden wrote:
We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

http://www.rvbusiness.com/2018/08/rvia-july-shipments-record-10-9-yoy-growth/

And we're back in the game LOL.

[jplante4]

Warren Buffet would not have gotten into this business if it was a 1 year bubble.

[2oldman]

Chum lee wrote:
I'm planning on buying a used MH in several years for cash. If this news is correct, by then the market should be saturated with late model, low mileage, gently used, well depreciated MH's owned by motivated sellers.

Absolutely it will.

[Chum_lee]

This sounds like good news to me. I'm planning on buying a (new to me) used MH in several years for cash. If this news is correct, by then the market should be saturated with late model, low mileage, gently used, well depreciated MH's owned by motivated sellers. (flame suit on) Hey, I didn't cause the problem, I'm just planning on taking advantage of it.

Anon: "Hey Chum lee, What are you going to do with your old MH?"
Chum lee said, "It's going to become low cost housing for the homeless."

Chum lee

[rk911]

Ralph Cramden wrote:

rk911 wrote:
to what are you referring?

The proper temperature to bake Quiche Lorraine!

yeah, that's what I thought. 🙂

[wa8yxm]

I'm going to stay out of this one.

[goducks10]

Ralph Cramden wrote:
We'll see how this plays out over the next few months. May was -1.7%.
Tariffs?, Rising Interest Rates?, A bubble?, The shine is wearing off?, All of the above?
That was the first time negative numbers were posted since about 2012.

http://www.rvbusiness.com/2018/08/rvia-july-shipments-record-10-9-yoy-growth/

[SidecarFlip]

Ralph Cramden wrote:
Since 1981 the RV Industry has never went more than 5 years without a downturn. Its been 8 years since the last and not one month since 2010 showed a negative number until May 2018. The July numbers should be out any day. Have they hit the top of the curve? Maybe?

HISTORICAL DATA

Far as I'm concerned that all (builders, dealers and third party sellers of equipment need a good financial spanking to make them realize that turning out **** only impacts their bottom line eventually.

When you can finance a MH for 30 years and in 5 it's junk, makes no sense to me. Not only is it a poor investment it's something (debt) you are shackled with long after the new has worn off, replaced by a probably rotten junker.

Of course in today's climate, not many owners are pro active on even basic maintenance (as evidenced on this forum every day).

I'd say at least half the posted threads on here, if the owners used their noodles for something other than to space their ears apart, the issue could be solved with some common sense.

I'd never finance any RV. I paid cash for my last one and if I buy another, that will be cash as well because financing anything except your real estate is a loosing proposition.

I remember the last big bust when builders were declaring bankruptcy at an alarming clip.

Because the industry is cyclical, I'd say it's coming again and soon.

No problem with me. I may buy a new unit at the height of the bust. Bet I can get a nice unit at a good price with very few defects because the factories will be building quality, not quantity.

Today, it's quantity over quality and it shows in every brand.

[Ralph_Cramden]

rk911 wrote:
to what are you referring?

The proper temperature to bake Quiche Lorraine!