Wall Street Journal today: Rocky Road Ahead for RV Makers

[T18skyguy]

Now might be a good time to look for that deal. Some key takeaways:
What drove the industry's good fortune was consumer confidence, cheap financing, affordable fuel, and a new found "hip factor". That's gone now. Rising interest rates, and steel and aluminum tariff's have kicked in. RV shipments rose till May, but by September, down 30% year over year. Thor has lost two thirds it value, and Winnebago lost 57%. Camping World lost 3/4 it's value. Thor showed a 21.3% drop in revenue and an 83.2 drop in pre-tax profit. The previous record sales spike consisted more of cheap towables, more than motorhomes. Another worry is the"glamping", a trend which brought many younger people in, could fade with changing sensibilities or financial priorities.

[goducks10]

Grit dog wrote:
Works for me. Seeing a much newer AF camper at a big discount in my future....
Just wish we had a good excuse to unload our overly high valued house now and pocket that cash.....

Can't talk my DW into that idea. I would love to sell now, stick the cash in a house fund, full time until prices drop again. Then by that time we'd want a condo. Pay cash and still RV a bit. I'm not much of a risk taker or a Carnac type guru.

[RGar974417]

Having been in business for over 30 years, I have some insight into this.Here's what I found. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.I am an electrical contractor. I did mostly remodeling,some new homes and additions, some commercial and some industrial. I also did sound system installations.By being diversified,it kept me fairly busy even during down turns. Do a good job. If you screw up or install a product that fails,fix it no matter what the cost.Don't sacrifice your existing customers for new ones. There was a period of time before 2008,when I was so busy,I just could not handle all the new work and keep my existing customers happy.So I choose to stay with the customers who had stuck with me.Be conservative and don't grow too fast. Save some money for a rainy day. Any business that follows these rules will be around for a long time.

[irishtom29]

It comes to mind that some people...never mind.

[Grit_dog]

Works for me. Seeing a much newer AF camper at a big discount in my future....
Just wish we had a good excuse to unload our overly high valued house now and pocket that cash.....

[whjco]

minnow wrote:

mike brez wrote:

Acampingwewillgo wrote:
Not totally related but I was looking for a particular brand of motorhome not knowing the manufacturer. After a bit of looking, I ended up on the "Forest River" Web site. All I can say is...WOW on the number of RV's in general made by this one company which I'm sure has gobbled up the smaller brands as they have become larger.


Just found it interesting but sad at the same time.

Warren Buffet has some cash

It's just too bad be doesn't want to reinvest any of that cash into building a better RV.

In late November we bought a new 2019 Forest River Cherokee 274vfk. The only problem we've had with it is a loose piece of trim on the bathroom ceiling that was a minor fix, otherwise the fit and construction is very well done. And the 5/8 tongue-in-groove floor is much more solid than the chipboard floor in our old Starcraft. It also has a bonded exterior finish and load range E tires. I've been very impressed with the quality of this travel trailer.

Bill J., Lexington, KY

[WTP-GC]

gemsworld wrote:

WTP-GC wrote:

All I'm saying here is...nothing to see, move along.

We'll see if you're right a year from now.

Whether I'm right or wrong is mostly irrelevant. My point is that you can't judge what's going on without understanding how all things work together. You have new tax laws, changes in corporate structures, new ownerships, buyouts/sellouts that impact how you need to present the books, etc.

A simplistic view of the data would suggest that people just decided not to buy RV's during the period in review. However, my bet is that these corporations are positioning themselves so that the stakeholders receive the most benefit but the tax bill is the lightest...based on many factors of course.

[Community Alumni]

WTP-GC wrote:

All I'm saying here is...nothing to see, move along.

We'll see if you're right a year from now.

[WTP-GC]

I don't see what all the hype is about. These companies (Thor, Winnebago, Forest River, etc.) are all dealing with complex financial strategies that likely confuse most of us. Heck, I own a fairly prolific business and even I struggle to understand the maneuvering that takes place at companies like this.

Keep in mind that this is nothing more than a blip on the map for financial readings. A one quarter or one year period isn't how any prudent investor judges the long term viability of any particular market.

There are new tax laws that went into place last year and this year. The strategies for behemoth corporations like this have to change in order to guarantee maximum profit for the stakeholders. The quote about Thor having an 80% drop in pre-tax profits (actually an oxymoron because corporations judge true profit as what's left over after taxes) may seem monumental to most people, but that might actually meant that they stand to make the same or more profit at year end due to tax strategies.

All I'm saying here is...nothing to see, move along.

[T18skyguy]

Yesterday I went to an RV show at out local fairgrounds. It was put on by the largest dealer in our area. There were hundreds of RV's at all price levels. It was a beautiful sunny day(rare this season in Oregon), and at 1PM there wasn't more than a couple dozen people there, and there was no entrance fee either. The salesman were so bored, they just hung out with each other drinking coffee. I looked in most all class A's. One interesting thing is Winnie has introduced a European style interior in one of their class A's. The cabinets are an all a shiny ceramic look. No wood to be found, unless it's beneath the surface.

[Dave_H_M]

The info in this post doesn't surprise me one bit.

I always wondered how big that bubble could get.

[Acampingwewillg]

I can wholeheartedly agree with that....there are enough badly designed and worsely assembled around.

[minnow]

mike brez wrote:

Acampingwewillgo wrote:
Not totally related but I was looking for a particular brand of motorhome not knowing the manufacturer. After a bit of looking, I ended up on the "Forest River" Web site. All I can say is...WOW on the number of RV's in general made by this one company which I'm sure has gobbled up the smaller brands as they have become larger.


Just found it interesting but sad at the same time.

Warren Buffet has some cash

It's just too bad be doesn't want to reinvest any of that cash into building a better RV.

[theoldwizard1]

There is a General RV on I96 in Wixom MI. I was always amazed at the huge stock of high end Class A coaches they had in stock. Went by there there a week ago and the front lot is EMPTY ! Nada, nothing. Looked pretty scary.

[colliehauler]

Acampingwewillgo wrote:
Not totally related but I was looking for a particular brand of motorhome not knowing the manufacturer. After a bit of looking, I ended up on the "Forest River" Web site. All I can say is...WOW on the number of RV's in general made by this one company which I'm sure has gobbled up the smaller brands as they have become larger.


Just found it interesting but sad at the same time.

Same story with Keystone-Thor.