CAFE stds on the chopping block

[agesilaus]

NYT

Good riddance. There is no way that the average fleet mileage would ever come close to those numbers anyway. Hopefully the ethanol scam will be cut at the same time.

[agesilaus]

I wasn't being derogatory. A lot of these websites label themselves as Green-such and such. I was just identifying a real segment of the population. There is also a large segment of the population which regard themselves as rational realists who have to see predictions based on something other than dreams.

[John___Angela]

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those.

Who is arguing... and are there really people that are anti green. 😉

But seriously, any EV owners I know didn't buy there cars because they are "pro green". They bought them because they like the cars. Really, they are a pretty nice drive. We are just regular people. When it was time to replace our older cars we analysed our driving and figured out that the EV's would fit the bill. Fun to drive, low maintenance, very low operating costs, fast and nimble, no hanging around gas stations and super quiet. Also no oil spots on the garage floor (our cars were starting to drip from time to time). Lots of neat features like programable pre-warm and no engine running to do it. EV's are not for everyone and for sure they don't replace a pickup...yet. But I don't think it is necessary to categorize a person in some derogatory manner because they like a certain type of vehicle. I loved my truck when I needed one. Now I don't but I still talk to truck people. :W

Just sayin.

[agesilaus]

All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those. Here is a more honest look from the lefty Hill site: Projections

I found another that gave the honest guess of an adoption rate in the US of 3 to 10 percent in 2025. No one knows in other words. Obama said there would be 1,000,000 electric vehicles on the road in 2015. He was just off by 72 percent

In order for electric cars to spread you need certain things to happen in my opinion:

1) Range has to go way up, to 400 miles minimum, to kill range anxiety. This is essential to get non megacity drivers interested.

2) There would have to be a massive expansion of public charging stations.

3) Charging would have to be much faster, waiting 60-90 minutes to get a charge will not be popular.

4) Gas prices would have to skyrocket again. Not what anyone expects anymore after the shale revolution. Oil prices are projected to stay below $60 for at least the next 10 years.

5) Big electric vehicle would have to become available: SUV, Vans and Pickups. People do not want tiny cars.

6) Normal accessories would have to be standard on electrics. I mean a/c and heating along with now expected electronics like backup cameras and lane departure.
-------------------------------

Considering all the above I just don't see them being anything more than a niche product. Plus over all this is the Lithium production bottleneck. Electrics take almost 20 percent of worldwide Li production now. That does not leave room for a 10 fold expansion. Unless new Li deposits are found.

[John___Angela]

agesilaus wrote:
Yah. I think that is a pretty fair summation. I think the number of EV's in North America will continue to double every year for the next 6 or 7 years and then will taper off in growth about. I would be willing to bet that you would see 40 to 50 percent penetration by 2030. In 10 years the next generation are not going to be stoked about buying a clunky stinky ice vehicle after they have driven an EV.
================================================================

And as Joe Hill used to sing: You'll get Pie in the Sky when you Die.

So far as I can see there is almost no interest in electrics outside of liberal urbanites. A lot of them already use mass transit and don't have a place to park a car, even if they wanted one.

I'm not up on American jargon so not sure I understand your comment. What does "liberalurbanite" mean. Maybe I am one. How would I know? 🙂

[John___Angela]

GeoBoy wrote:

John & Angela wrote:
I'm glad when a discussion such as thus can stay civil and respectful of different points of views. In the course of my education I tend to read a lot, watch presentations on TV or you tube and of course try to stay current with what is happening in this big old world of ours. Here is an interesting video that has made me think that change is coming in the next 15 years. I am not convinced of some of the orators numbers but he is well respected and certainly a well schooled man.

Here it is. Take the time to watch it all the way thru. Love to hear others comments and thoughts. This is an important topic and needs to be discussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

Cheers.

Wow. That is crazy, you really have think about investing in a I/C powered car or any car for that matter, in the future. Very good video.

Yah its pretty eye opening and there are dozens of similar videos out there but many in other languages. If you are a German speaker you can find some real interesting and amazing techy info.

Just to give you an idea of how this is taking form, Chinas figures it will produce no new diesel or natural gas buses within 5 years. Here is an interesting article a little closer to home.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/03/20170310-greenpower.html

[GeoBoy]

John & Angela wrote:
I'm glad when a discussion such as thus can stay civil and respectful of different points of views. In the course of my education I tend to read a lot, watch presentations on TV or you tube and of course try to stay current with what is happening in this big old world of ours. Here is an interesting video that has made me think that change is coming in the next 15 years. I am not convinced of some of the orators numbers but he is well respected and certainly a well schooled man.

Here it is. Take the time to watch it all the way thru. Love to hear others comments and thoughts. This is an important topic and needs to be discussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

Cheers.

Wow. That is crazy, you really have think about investing in a I/C powered car or any car for that matter, in the future. Very good video.

[Hannibal]

troubledwaters wrote:

FishOnOne wrote:
The only problem I can think of by moving the goal post closer is the companies who've invested substantial money to be in line the new standard are ultimately penalized where as the companies who did very little will benefit the most.

Any manufacturer that can develop a car that can get 54 mpg is going to sell ton of them.

When my DW told me I was spending $7-800 a month on gas for the F250, I jokingly told her I was going to buy a Prius for a work truck. Two years later my 50-100~ mile a day Prius Xsp work truck has 72k miles on it and averages 53~mpg city. She drives our F250 for her short work commute. Once past the BS internet rumors and SNL jokes, it's not a bad car at all. It can be done without pain but it's definitely not a luxury car. The new ones are too ugly even for me.

[John___Angela]

I'm glad when a discussion such as thus can stay civil and respectful of different points of views. In the course of my education I tend to read a lot, watch presentations on TV or you tube and of course try to stay current with what is happening in this big old world of ours. Here is an interesting video that has made me think that change is coming in the next 15 years. I am not convinced of some of the orators numbers but he is well respected and certainly a well schooled man.

Here it is. Take the time to watch it all the way thru. Love to hear others comments and thoughts. This is an important topic and needs to be discussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

Cheers.

[John___Angela]

troubledwaters wrote:
John-Angela whichever, your dreaming!

About what?

[troubledwaters]

John-Angela whichever, your dreaming!

[agesilaus]

Yah. I think that is a pretty fair summation. I think the number of EV's in North America will continue to double every year for the next 6 or 7 years and then will taper off in growth about. I would be willing to bet that you would see 40 to 50 percent penetration by 2030. In 10 years the next generation are not going to be stoked about buying a clunky stinky ice vehicle after they have driven an EV.
================================================================

And as Joe Hill used to sing: You'll get Pie in the Sky when you Die.

So far as I can see there is almost no interest in electrics outside of liberal urbanites. A lot of them already use mass transit and don't have a place to park a car, even if they wanted one.

[hone_eagle]

Well I will wait until all the subsides go way first ,the market is totally distorted .In ontario we are giving $14,000 to rich guys buying Teslas.In fact once the incentives vanish so will electric cars .

[John___Angela]

hellfirehydra wrote:

John & Angela wrote:

wilber1 wrote:
US automakers are global players and the rest of the world isn't going to stop moving forward because of something a US president signs. They will continue to develop these vehicles or become uncompetitive in wold markets.

I tend to agree. Right now 1 out of every 2 people walking into a showroom in Norway are going into buy a BEV or PHEV. Since the new year 51 percent of all registrations have been electric vehicles. Although Norway is on the cutting edge of this wave, EV sales are doubling every year in most developed countries in the world. People who have driven electric vehicles like the experience and are buying them. Government incentives have helped to give them a boost but prices are almost competitive with ice vehicles. In 5 years they will be cheaper. In 10 years they will be much cheaper than ice vehicles and of course maintenance is a fraction of the cost.

Americans should be able to buy whatever they want. Americans companies should be able to build whatever they want. However, if they want to be able to sell anything to any first world nation in ten years they might want to try and keep up. They will find markets in developing countries or third world countries that don't have 1st world environmental standards but the market will get smaller for ice vehicles. Trucks and SUV's too but it will take longer. Putting trade barriers up to foreign EV's coming in will help for awhile and assuming TESLA is not run out of the US there will be an excellent domestic source of EV's but Americans will want variety and that will come from foreign manufacturers.

Both of our vehicles are electric. Contrary to what every one seems to think we (EV drivers) are not all liberals nor are we environmental nuts. However, like many, we find the driving experience superior to any ICE vehicle. Maintenance is low, fuel is cheap, they are fast, nimble, very stable (low centre of gravity) dead quiet, very reliable and convenient. They are not for everyone's needs yet and pickups and SUV's have their place in North American markets and society. But in my opinion, if North American manufacturing stops R and D in the EV market simply because they don't have to because of the lack if government smog regulations they would be making a mistake.

All just my humble opinion.

John

I truly believe America will make a shift in my lifetime(33 atm) to averaging one EV per household, but until the recharging network/cross country solution is figured out, they will have to always be a secondary car for the majority in the US. 50% of America lives in a few large cities, the other 50% is spread across the entirety of the United States. America is big...really big. EV range apprehension will prohibit that 50% of America from using an EV until a solution is developed and implemented. Europe and America's geography is vastly different which requires vastly different travel solutions.

Yah. I think that is a pretty fair summation. I think the number of EV's in North America will continue to double every year for the next 6 or 7 years and then will taper off in growth about. I would be willing to bet that you would see 40 to 50 percent penetration by 2030. In 10 years the next generation are not going to be stoked about buying a clunky stinky ice vehicle after they have driven an EV.

[hellfirehydra]

John & Angela wrote:

wilber1 wrote:
US automakers are global players and the rest of the world isn't going to stop moving forward because of something a US president signs. They will continue to develop these vehicles or become uncompetitive in wold markets.

I tend to agree. Right now 1 out of every 2 people walking into a showroom in Norway are going into buy a BEV or PHEV. Since the new year 51 percent of all registrations have been electric vehicles. Although Norway is on the cutting edge of this wave, EV sales are doubling every year in most developed countries in the world. People who have driven electric vehicles like the experience and are buying them. Government incentives have helped to give them a boost but prices are almost competitive with ice vehicles. In 5 years they will be cheaper. In 10 years they will be much cheaper than ice vehicles and of course maintenance is a fraction of the cost.

Americans should be able to buy whatever they want. Americans companies should be able to build whatever they want. However, if they want to be able to sell anything to any first world nation in ten years they might want to try and keep up. They will find markets in developing countries or third world countries that don't have 1st world environmental standards but the market will get smaller for ice vehicles. Trucks and SUV's too but it will take longer. Putting trade barriers up to foreign EV's coming in will help for awhile and assuming TESLA is not run out of the US there will be an excellent domestic source of EV's but Americans will want variety and that will come from foreign manufacturers.

Both of our vehicles are electric. Contrary to what every one seems to think we (EV drivers) are not all liberals nor are we environmental nuts. However, like many, we find the driving experience superior to any ICE vehicle. Maintenance is low, fuel is cheap, they are fast, nimble, very stable (low centre of gravity) dead quiet, very reliable and convenient. They are not for everyone's needs yet and pickups and SUV's have their place in North American markets and society. But in my opinion, if North American manufacturing stops R and D in the EV market simply because they don't have to because of the lack if government smog regulations they would be making a mistake.

All just my humble opinion.

John

I truly believe America will make a shift in my lifetime(33 atm) to averaging one EV per household, but until the recharging network/cross country solution is figured out, they will have to always be a secondary car for the majority in the US. 50% of America lives in a few large cities, the other 50% is spread across the entirety of the United States. America is big...really big. EV range apprehension will prohibit that 50% of America from using an EV until a solution is developed and implemented. Europe and America's geography is vastly different which requires vastly different travel solutions.

[John___Angela]

Fordlover wrote:

troubledwaters wrote:

FishOnOne wrote:
The only problem I can think of by moving the goal post closer is the companies who've invested substantial money to be in line the new standard are ultimately penalized where as the companies who did very little will benefit the most.

Any manufacturer that can develop a car that can get 54 mpg is going to sell ton of them.

Not if it costs 280K each, even if it resembles something that people actually want to buy.

Good morning. Is there a specific vehicle you are thinking of that somebody managed to do this?

Cheers.