El Nino forecast: Texas Chilly

[Snowman9000]

Here is a 42 second video forecast for the US Winter. If they are correct, Winter Texans might be in for one of those cold years. We are going to AZ and it's supposed to be cooler and wetter too. Yes, I realize that long term forecasts are not super accurate. Still, I've experienced enough El Nino winters to see the patterns myself.

Weather Channel Video

[John_Joey]

Ivylog, I hope you're not using this Joe Bastardi as your financial advisor also. :B Sounds like another Tornado in southern FL today. Keep your head down and your awning in.

[2gypsies1]

Lovely, sunny day today in the Tucson Arizona area. :)Highs in the 60's the next 10 days. The warmth comes from that constant sun.

Surprisingly, the Phoenix area forecast is a little cooler and some rain showers. Usually, it's the other way around.

[silversand]

I remember reading that if the glaciers ever melted they would change the salinity of the oceans...

...if memory serves, the Earth's surface is covered by about 9~10% ice (sum-total of all glaciers and mountain-top snows) and about 70% liquid water (oceans & lakes); the rest is land. The interesting thing to note about "glacial ice", is that it may have taken 2, 5, 7, 15+ centuries to accumulate/form, but(!), can melt very, very, VERY quickly (ie. in decades). So, when the really large mega-glaciers melt (like now), the fresh water rides on top of the denser ocean salt water (this is what changes the THC circulation). If memory works, I believe that the Arctic ice sheet is melting far more rapidly than the Antarctic ice mass (I stand corrected if someone has contrary info).

...so imagine the Greenland ice sheet melting out, then changing the course of (or, stopping) the thermohaline Atlantic circulation! This wouldn't be very fun for the British isles (nor Europe), because it would in all likelihood trigger a European continental ice age...fairly quickly.

[vermilye]

I'm in Quartzsite, and it has been cooler this winter compared to 2014, but finally getting warmer than upstate NY!

[silversand]

John & Joey wrote:
I'm guessing we have lots more to come. Yesterdays weather losers, may be today weather winners. Today weather winners, may be tomorrow weather losers. Only time will tell the true story that is unfolding.

....oh ya. This is really sage advice. The more "mobile" the better. We're only doing 1 more (perhaps 2) years of condoing in Florida, then, its being mobile.

Spot forecasting for a patch of land and airspace as big as an RV way in the future is a no go...however, veeeery generally, we can forecast regional (like the entire east coast; or north-central west; or west coast) and continental "climate" variations (like this El Nino's effect on the East coast of North America, for example) 3 months in advance.

...so, we have a lot of wild "events" still yet to happen (in Jan, Feb, March)...

[John_Joey]

So long ago, I remember reading that if the glaciers ever melted they would change the salinity of the oceans. This in turn would affect the jet streams, which in turn our local weather.

I'm guessing we have lots more to come. Yesterdays weather losers, may be today weather winners. Today weather winners, may be tomorrow weather losers. Only time will tell the true story that is unfolding.

If you're a snowbird, might be a very good thing to have wheels under you.

[silversand]

Dec. 27, 70 degrees Cold front arrives

...up here near the Arctic (Quebec), we're smashing every warm high temperature this Fall ever recorded since people have been keeping records (and now, Winter, we're headed to smash 4 more days of highs). Our garden still has brussels sprouts, parsley and other herbs growing in it. Perhaps we'll be harvesting our garlic in early January?? We will be in the 56F to 69F range up to and past Xmas (till about the 26th afternoon).

In this neck of the woods (roughly 80 miles from Montreal) we should be at -17 to -30C ! We were out in short sleeves this morning in our enclosed un-heated gazebo sipping coffee. Never seen anything like it in over 50 years. Anyhow, it should be a pleasant drive down to Florida next month.

On edit: But we (I) knew this was going to happen (read my Post on El Nino from about 2.7 months ago in this Snowbirds forum, here-->)

[joebedford]

I brought a parka from up north. I'll need it on the 27th. In the meantime both ACs will be running.

[pawatt]

Mission Texas forecast
Dec. 22, 84 degrees
Dec. 23, 90 degrees
Dec. 24, 88 degrees
Dec. 25, 87 degrees
Dec. 26, 90 degrees
Dec. 27, 70 degrees Cold front arrives 😉

[John_Joey]

[trailerguy1]

Buy the latest edition of Trailer life & head south into Mexico. There is a 7 page spread on it in the December edition. Actually it is warmer than normal down there

[BarbaraOK]

wildtoad wrote:
Just wait... California will get a large amount of rain due to El Niño and then complain about how much they get. Same happened here last month. My water bill said to conserve water as we were in mild drought conditions. Then we get almost 20 inches of rain, over 30 dams break and we have much more water than we could ever need. Next water bill still says we are in a mild drought.

You are in a mild drought. It takes a long time to come out and getting a lot of rain, all at once, doesn't really help. You need weeks and weeks of drizzle that soaks in, not runs off, to come out of a drought. Keep your fingers crossed that you get lots of soaking storms this winter.

[MNGeeks61]

pawatt wrote:
So as I read it, it looks like south Texas and Ariz should be 1 degree below normal? Is that correct? We should be able to survive that?

As I read it, I thought it meant the average for the entire winter.

I bet you're keeping track of how nice it is up in Brainerd this time of year :). Garrison has been plenty warm lately too. I really hope we can keep the weather nice all winter, although I must admit 70's sound a heck of a lot better than 40's for the high.

I am betting on at least 10-12 degrees warmer all winter and Mille Lacs not freezing completely until the 3rd week of December.

[John_Joey]

All beach and no ocean though. After a short cold snap, back to mid 70's and sunshine. :B