CDC and the government may be loosening the lockdown

[agesilaus]

News

The states still control this tho but I would expect a lot of states to follow the suggestions. Not the Plague Centers tho. So maybe we will be able to RV again.

We are going out to find some cotton material that can be used to make washable masks. They recommend the stuff like tee shirts are made of. 6 or 8 layers. It will not stop viruses but will stop spray from coughs and sneezes.

[agesilaus]

Some town in Germany finally did some moderately large scale antibody testing and found that 15% of the people in town had antibodies. Most probably never knew that they had the WuFlu. If applied to the whole country it woul drop their mortality rate to less than 0.4%:
MIT review

"From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%."

I think that would make the US rate about 0.6%, assuming you could apply those numbers to the US which is a stretch. More antibodies testing results are expected to pour in within the next week or 10 days so we will finally have some data. Sorry to disapoint all those hoping for massive die offs.

[azrving]

CCP Virus

[fj12ryder]

goducks10 wrote:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart

Google how many died and how many tested positive on March 18th and then look at the totals for today.
The Flu never ramps up like this.

It didn't necessarily "ramp up", the number of flu tests available and flu tests actually given is what "ramped up". Nobody was testing much for it in March, now there are hundreds of thousands being tested. Naturally the number of positive cases is going to rise at a very rapid rate.

The CDC was still not testing large numbers of people by the middle of March. In New York City on March 24th: An alert was sent out “COVID-19 testing is only indicated for HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS.”

[fj12ryder]

wilber1 wrote:

fj12ryder wrote:

wilber1 wrote:

Cummins12V98 wrote:
98% of the people in the US survive the China Virus.

The current fatality rate is 3.5% of those infected, New York City is more than 6%. Even 2% of he population means over 6.5 million deaths.

Again, how do you figure those percentages? They simply don't know how many people would test positive, so you don't know how many people actually have the virus. Without knowing the total numbers of infected, you can't know the percentage of fatalities. You're looking at total number of fatalities as a percentage of total tested. That is not a legitimate percentage to be taken seriously.

If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

Yes it is.

And 0.1% is 327,000. The death toll of the seasonal flu is figured at around 0.1%, and yet they give a total of 20,000-60,000 deaths. So somebody's numbers are off.

If you had read earlier, I said it will higher than than 98% and I said it would be about the same as the seasonal flu, which is in the neighborhood of 20,000-60,000 deaths.

[Cummins12V98]

Walaby wrote:

wilber1 wrote:
If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

98% of those with the virus. NOT 98% of the total population.

Mike

ZACTLY!!!

[goducks10]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart

Google how many died and how many tested positive on March 18th and then look at the totals for today.
The Flu never ramps up like this.

[Walaby]

wilber1 wrote:
If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

98% of those with the virus. NOT 98% of the total population.

Mike

[shelbyfv]

Hopefully we will have adequate testing before anyone decides this is over enough.

[wilber1]

fj12ryder wrote:

wilber1 wrote:

Cummins12V98 wrote:
98% of the people in the US survive the China Virus.

The current fatality rate is 3.5% of those infected, New York City is more than 6%. Even 2% of he population means over 6.5 million deaths.

Again, how do you figure those percentages? They simply don't know how many people would test positive, so you don't know how many people actually have the virus. Without knowing the total numbers of infected, you can't know the percentage of fatalities. You're looking at total number of fatalities as a percentage of total tested. That is not a legitimate percentage to be taken seriously.

If 98% survive it means 2% didn't. 2% of the population is 6.5 million.

[Walaby]

wilber1 wrote:
The current fatality rate is 3.5% of those infected, New York City is more than 6%. Even 2% of he population means over 6.5 million deaths.

You're the second person I've seen on these forums that automatically assumes EVERYONE in the US will be infected. There is zero evidence to support that theory, so makes all the math after that useless.

Mike

[thomasmnile]

Cloud Dancer wrote:
FIRST they must give us millions of test kits, AND carve in stone that they will NOT suppress the VOTE.

What Cloud said....;)

[Cummins12V98]

Add in all the unknown that have gotten it makes 2% an easy reality.

[Gdetrailer]

agesilaus wrote:
Something else is going on as they learn more about this disease. Apparently people are thinking that lung problems are not killing people like they assumed, the disease may damage the bloods ability to transport oxygen. You may notice that the governors have stopped screaming about respirators. That's because the MD's are backing away from putting people on a respirator in the first place.

I saw comments by a pulmonary specicilst doctor who pointed out that the prognosis for anyone going on a respirator is grim. Only a small percentage manages to get off one once they put you on one. And it should be saved as the absolute last resort.

^^^THIS^^^

Delt with this issue with my Mom many years ago, DRs only offered intubation and respirator as the only treatment.. Had to make the decision to attempt intubation to help her. Sadly, it didn't help and after 2 weeks of on/off the only option was to Trach and vent permanently or take her off and allow her to go..

Very painful to make decision and very painful to watch her go.

My heart aches for anyone who is put into this situation, it is not handed out like candy to everyone, only the ones that there is no other chance of helping and even then, the odds are low and the longer you are on it the weaker your body gets and less likely will ever get off of it.

If you are put on a vent, you are sedated, then they will bring you out of sedation periodically remove the intubation and see if you can breath on your own..

It is pretty much a last ditch effort in spite of what some may say about better success with starting a vent early.

Most likely much better way to treat with meds, the problem is what meds to use, no one really knows what may work the best so it is trial and error at this point..

DRs at UPMC Pittsburgh just announced live clinical trials and the use of AI technology to attempt to log and discover what med(s) therapy may overall work the most effective.. May take some time though.

[fj12ryder]

agesilaus wrote:
Something else is going on as they learn more about this disease. Apparently people are thinking that lung problems are not killing people like they assumed, the disease may damage the bloods ability to transport oxygen. You may notice that the governors have stopped screaming about respirators. That's because the MD's are backing away from putting people on a respirator in the first place.

I saw comments by a pulmonary specicilst doctor who pointed out that the prognosis for anyone going on a respirator is grim. Only a small percentage manages to get off one once they put you on one. And it should be saved as the absolute last resort.

From what I've read about problems with the respirators, it seems to be the accepted procedure by the CDC for treatment of respiratory diseases is not working with this virus. Apparently the accepted protocol is increased pressure, when the respiratory problems from this virus seem to respond better with lower pressure but higher oxygen concentration. There is some push back by practitioners to go against CDC procedure, with a fuss from the CDC about it.

[wilber1]

agesilaus wrote:
Something else is going on as they learn more about this disease. Apparently people are thinking that lung problems are not killing people like they assumed, the disease may damage the bloods ability to transport oxygen. You may notice that the governors have stopped screaming about respirators. That's because the MD's are backing away from putting people on a respirator in the first place.

I saw comments by a pulmonary specicilst doctor who pointed out that the prognosis for anyone going on a respirator is grim. Only a small percentage manages to get off one once they put you on one. And it should be saved as the absolute last resort.

Our provincial medical authorities are saying they are getting better results by putting people on ventilators earlier, before they get so bad they have to be on one. So who knows. UK based Mercedes F1 teamed up with University of London hospital to reverse engineer CPAP machines for use as assisted breathing devices before a ventilator is needed. They are capable of cranking out 1000 of these a week at their engine building facility.

This seems to be a learning process for everyone.