Chew on this.

[Pbutler97]

ELKHART COUNTY, Ind. - As the recreational vehicle industry approaches the end of 2022, the nation’s economic malaise and spiking interest rates have caused buyers to tap the brakes on purchasing an RV. The latest data from the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association shows year-to-date shipments are down 8.2% compared to the first nine months of 2021. The month of September was especially challenging, as overall wholesale shipments to dealers were down 48.5% compared to September 2021.

But in an interview with Inside INdiana Business, RVIA spokesperson Monika Geraci called the decline a “normalization” of the industry following record shipments last year.

“Last year was a record setting year, over 600,000 RVs were built in 2021. That was a nearly 20% increase over any previous year,” said Geraci. “Our latest forecast shows that we’re going to be just shy of 500,000, which will be the third best year on record, right there close to 2017.”

Before last year’s mammoth year, 2017 was the previous high of 506,000 units shipped. Geraci adds, “We’re looking to be really right back there.”

Breaking it down, towable RVs ended September down 54% against September 2021, but motorhomes finished the month up 21% compared to the same month last year. Motorhomes account for 10% of all sales.

“This is a double-digit drop, but we were having double digit increases last year,” said Geraci. “Now it’s coming back down to where that 40-year, long-term growth line is.”

Despite a drop in shipments, RV makers are still posting big gains.

Elkhart-based LCI Industries (NYSE: LCII) last week reported third quarter net income of $61.4 million compared to $63.4 million during the same period a year ago. LCI Industries President and Chief Executive Officer Jason Lippert says the company delivered a “strong performance” despite a downturn in recreational vehicle demand.

“During the third quarter, we delivered growth in adjacent markets and leveraged our flexible cost structure to support profitability, as the RV industry adjusts to softened consumer demand and macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Lippert.

The company is also reporting Q3 net sales of $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion during the same period a year ago.

LCI says the decrease in year-over-year net sales for Q3 of 2022 was primarily driven by decreased North American RV wholesale shipments, reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand.

In September, Elkhart-based THOR Industries (NYSE: THO) reported a full-year net income of $1 billion, a record for the company. THOR President and CEO Bob Martin acknowledged a “softening in the towable RV sector” during the fourth quarter, but still record Q4 net income of $281 million, compared to $230 million during the same a year ago.

RVIA data shows during the first five months of this year, monthly shipments surpassed last year’s record-breaking year. But at the mid-point of 2022, as inflation and interest rates surged higher, demand lessened, and so too shipments from manufacturers to dealers.

“The macroeconomic issues are not great, particularly inflation,” said Geraci. “But what we know is that RV travel is a more economical way to travel.”

Looking to the year ahead, the RVIA is expecting a further drop in wholesale shipments. A quarterly industry forecast, conducted by ITR Economics, puts the estimate at 419,000 units in 2023.

If realized, that would be a 16% decline from the projected 2022 total.

“We’re expecting to see these monthly shipments be a little bit lower, like we’ve seen on the back half of this year. And then we expect it to pick back up,” Geraci said.

The RVIA says Indiana factories account for 86% of U.S. RV units. Second place belongs to Oregon with just 3% of RV production.

LINK



Results for the RV Industry Association’s September 2022 survey of manufacturers determined that total RV shipments ended the month with 28,333 units, a decrease of (-48.5%) compared to the 55,014 units shipped in September 2021. Through September, RV shipments are down (-8.2%) compared to the same point last year with 415,594 wholesale shipments.

LINK

[Grit_dog]

JRscooby wrote:

JIMNLIN wrote:

In 1972 I bought a new 8' 6" truck camper at the boat sport and travel show for 975 bucks. Even top of the line big name brand 10'+ truck camper with all the ginger bread sold in the 2800-3000 dollar range.

In '72 I bought a new Super Cheyanne half ton. Cost about the same as 7500 gallons gasoline. At todays price of gas, what pickup can you buy?

On the fuel cost subject...as long as the feds let shipping industry add fuel surcharges, costs of products won't come down for a long time...if ever.

Do you understand without the FSC, very few trucks could keep running? And without the competition freight rates would go up much more than the FSC. And in times of rising fuel prices, the FSC does not make truckers well, just slows the bleeding. This is because fuel price this week determine the FSC next week.

You couldn't quite buy a stripped down version of a 2wd base model pickup, although the new basemodel comparable truck is still around twice the power and features and longevity.
Take the recent politically charged "events" and high fuel prices out of the picture and you could only buy half that new base model truck.
More of a testament to historically low gas prices and the bargain we were getting compared to most of the rest of the world than vehicle prices.

Although my response in the Dealer Lots Filling Up thread explains that in more detail.

[JRscooby]

JIMNLIN wrote:

In 1972 I bought a new 8' 6" truck camper at the boat sport and travel show for 975 bucks. Even top of the line big name brand 10'+ truck camper with all the ginger bread sold in the 2800-3000 dollar range.

In '72 I bought a new Super Cheyanne half ton. Cost about the same as 7500 gallons gasoline. At todays price of gas, what pickup can you buy?

On the fuel cost subject...as long as the feds let shipping industry add fuel surcharges, costs of products won't come down for a long time...if ever.

Do you understand without the FSC, very few trucks could keep running? And without the competition freight rates would go up much more than the FSC. And in times of rising fuel prices, the FSC does not make truckers well, just slows the bleeding. This is because fuel price this week determine the FSC next week.

[Pbutler97]

JIMNLIN wrote:

Grit dog wrote:

JIMNLIN wrote:
RV industry has had these ups and downs since I've been around the industry starting in the early 1960s.
RV prices never dropped like some seem to think during/after those periods.

While I wasn't RVing during the last big recession (our RV was a truck topper and a 4man tent), a new(ish) boat, a new(ish) truck and a chunk of land got gotten by us for a significant discount.
I don't believe for a second that the RV market was insulated from the rapid depreciation that everything else was.

Thats fine.

In 1972 I bought a new 8' 6" truck camper at the boat sport and travel show for 975 bucks. Even top of the line big name brand 10'+ truck camper with all the ginger bread sold in the 2800-3000 dollar range.

In the same boat and sport show in 1986 the exact same truck camper sold for 3600-3800 bucks.

The last years this mfg stopped making truck campers and went to all TT and 5th wheel trailers was 1992-93 era. This same model TC sold in the 8800-8900 bucks range.

I 'spect in 10 more years we'll look back at the new current prices and wish prices were back to the pandemic levels.

On the fuel cost subject...as long as the feds let shipping industry add fuel surcharges, costs of products won't come down for a long time...if ever.



EDIT: Quote fixed.

In 1972 I walked 11 miles to school, uphill both ways, in 4' of snow, with no shoes!

Seriously though, received this in an email the other day. In 2021 they were easily getting the MSRPs listed. Today you can get them to come off the sales price listed.

[JIMNLIN]

Grit dog wrote:

JIMNLIN wrote:
RV industry has had these ups and downs since I've been around the industry starting in the early 1960s.
RV prices never dropped like some seem to think during/after those periods.

While I wasn't RVing during the last big recession (our RV was a truck topper and a 4man tent), a new(ish) boat, a new(ish) truck and a chunk of land got gotten by us for a significant discount.
I don't believe for a second that the RV market was insulated from the rapid depreciation that everything else was.

Thats fine.

In 1972 I bought a new 8' 6" truck camper at the boat sport and travel show for 975 bucks. Even top of the line big name brand 10'+ truck camper with all the ginger bread sold in the 2800-3000 dollar range.

In the same boat and sport show in 1986 the exact same truck camper sold for 3600-3800 bucks.

The last years this mfg stopped making truck campers and went to all TT and 5th wheel trailers was 1992-93 era. This same model TC sold in the 8800-8900 bucks range.

I 'spect in 10 more years we'll look back at the new current prices and wish prices were back to the pandemic levels.

On the fuel cost subject...as long as the feds let shipping industry add fuel surcharges, costs of products won't come down for a long time...if ever.



EDIT: Quote fixed.

[Grit_dog]

JIMNLIN wrote:
RV industry has had these ups and downs since I've been around the industry starting in the early 1960s.
RV prices never dropped like some seem to think during/after those periods.

While I wasn't RVing during the last big recession (our RV was a truck topper and a 4man tent), a new(ish) boat, a new(ish) truck and a chunk of land got gotten by us for a significant discount.
I don't believe for a second that the RV market was insulated from the rapid depreciation that everything else was.

[RetiredRealtorR]

spoon059 wrote:
Diesel is $5.75 at the local cash only gas station, that's had some effect on our camping this year. Looking at our Florida trip, thats 1800 miles round trip at about 12 mpg. 150 gallons of diesel at $6/gallon will be almost as expensive as the campground for 2 weeks...

Might as well buy a Prius and stay at nice motels! Gotta be a LOT more cost effective. :C

[MattFromPA]

I've taken a few long road trips this month and last, including a long stretch of I-95. Dealer lots were packed. A large Camping World next to Cabela's in PA was overflowing last weekend. My Facebook RV groups are filling up with for-sale postings (almost always TT's). Seasonal, sure, but the timing is interesting.

My credit union RV rate is 7.75% for 60 months, 8.25% for 120. Inflation is vaporizing the margins in family budgets. I know it has for mine. Hard to imagine sitting down and signing loan papers in this environment.

So if you are looking to buy, hang in there. Dealers will be sweating this winter IMHO.

[Fisherman]

“Last year was a record setting year, over 600,000 RVs were built in 2021. I can just imagine some of the junk that came off the assembly line.

[spoon059]

Diesel is $5.75 at the local cash only gas station, that's had some effect on our camping this year. Looking at our Florida trip, thats 1800 miles round trip at about 12 mpg. 150 gallons of diesel at $6/gallon will be almost as expensive as the campground for 2 weeks...

[JIMNLIN]

RV industry has had these ups and downs since I've been around the industry starting in the early 1960s.
RV prices never dropped like some seem to think during/after those periods.

[Pbutler97]

monkey44 wrote:
One thing I notice in the article cited ... it talks about built and shipped, but not much about actual sales to consumers. Just because a manufacturer builds one and ships one does not mean a dealer sold one. Sold is the criteria, not when it sits on a dealer lot, waiting for a customer.

We are beginning to see a long-term recovery in both RV and truck sales, but that will also depend on interest rate dropping for those that finance and not cash-buyers. I'd expect the market depends more on financed buyers than cash purchases to remain viable to dealers. Dealers get the bucks either way, but the market is probably much less dependent on cash sales, especially with interest up and sale prices high.

Where are numbers that reflect actual sales to consumers found? Anytime you read about sales in the RV Industry its backed up by the RVIA provided shipment numbers, and has been for 20 years or longer.

RetiredRealtorRick wrote:
Hmmmmm, very interesting.

Am I wrong, or did we read not all that long ago that Thor was completely sold out of their 2023 production? :h

They were, or are, until they're not ROFLMAO. Sounds good to the shareholders though.

That couple of hundred bucks that folks had laying around they used for the 120 month RV loan, is now being eaten up by groceries, energy costs, and increasing minimum payments/interest on their credit cards.

I filled in the missing info the RVIA wont add until they absolutely have to LOL.

[RetiredRealtorR]

Hmmmmm, very interesting.

Am I wrong, or did we read not all that long ago that Thor was completely sold out of their 2023 production? :h

[bgum]

The party is over for a while. Normal fluctuations in the market. Fuel costs have reached their new normal.

[wildtoad]

Camping World and other RV dealers are advertising to buy your RV, but not at reasonable prices. Seems they want to build inventory and/or they know there is a lot of people looking to sell. Towable units, except perhaps for Airstream, are most often purchased by people with lower incomes and more affected by the price of gas/diesel.