CAFE stds on the chopping block

[agesilaus]

NYT

Good riddance. There is no way that the average fleet mileage would ever come close to those numbers anyway. Hopefully the ethanol scam will be cut at the same time.

[John___Angela]

Gary C wrote:
Norway is a country of 5 million people and has most of their population living in a few urban centers unlike the U.S. They are also very wealthy because of their oil exports (a little bit of irony there) so they can afford eccentricities like EV's. There's also the SLOT effect as a poster mentioned earlier. Everyone things EV's are non-polluting which is absolutely not the case, they just move the pollution site somewhere down the chain. The electricity has to be generated somewhere, if that's done by a coal plant then there's your carbon dioxide source. Nuclear would be the most non-polluting but that causes most greenies to break out in hives. There's also the energy and pollution involved in making the batteries for them, there's a lot of nasty pollution issues involved in manufacturing batteries.

All in all EV's really aren't practical now for most of the world and they aren't as non-polluting as the EV proponents make them out to be. Maybe one day they'll be more practical, but it's going to take significant technology improvements for them to become mainstream in the U.S.

Some good points. But I don't think I have ever met anyone who is under the illusion that EV 's have no environmental impact. They just have less of an environmental impact and i have not seen anyone even try to dispute that. But yes the technology is still developing and EV's are not the answer to all transportation needs. But their use is growing fairly quickly so they must be working for some people. We drive the same amount of miles now as when we had ice vehicles but are now not burning gas to do it. The power comes 100 percent from hydro. That is a good thing. Depending on the country that can change of course but many countries continue to get less power from coal and more from other less polluting sources. (I don't like the use of the term green power as it has now been politicized).

Anyway. A good discussion and an important one for all of us. Clean air and water are portant for all of us.

[Gary_C]

Norway is a country of 5 million people and has most of their population living in a few urban centers unlike the U.S. They are also very wealthy because of their oil exports (a little bit of irony there) so they can afford eccentricities like EV's. There's also the SLOT effect as a poster mentioned earlier. Everyone things EV's are non-polluting which is absolutely not the case, they just move the pollution site somewhere down the chain. The electricity has to be generated somewhere, if that's done by a coal plant then there's your carbon dioxide source. Nuclear would be the most non-polluting but that causes most greenies to break out in hives. There's also the energy and pollution involved in making the batteries for them, there's a lot of nasty pollution issues involved in manufacturing batteries.

All in all EV's really aren't practical now for most of the world and they aren't as non-polluting as the EV proponents make them out to be. Maybe one day they'll be more practical, but it's going to take significant technology improvements for them to become mainstream in the U.S.

[John___Angela]

Gdetrailer wrote:

John & Angela wrote:


Thank you for the interesting info. I totally agree and have always said that EV's are not for everybody and don't fit everyones life style. But they work for a growing number of people and sometimes a little analysis of ones personal driving habits can reveal a lot. But yah. 100 miles of range is not for everybody. However reasonably priced 150 to 200 miles range EV's are readily available now in many parts of the world including the US. (35000 and under) Chevy makes a nice product that although wasn't right for us seemed like a decent drive. Roughly 220 miles of range. The Bolt. But I do agree, distances are longer on this side of the pond and that will limit sales. 300 Miles is easily achievable though...just at a 90,000 price tag. The Tesla in the picture above has 300 miles of range. Still cheaper than the BMW, Mercedes and Audi competition though. I guess its relative to what is affordable. Those are unaffordable for us...at least if I want to retire at 60. 🙂

Sales continue to climb though and right now, one of every two people walking into a showroom in Norway (a cold country) are there to buy an EV of some sort. Recently 51 percent of all new registrations were electric vehicles of some sort. That won't happen here for some time...or at least until they come up with a pickup that is BEV. 🙂

Limited range and huge price tag ($90K) puts EV way out of reach for easily 90% perhaps 95% of the average working persons wages.. Couple that with where you live and how expensive the cost of living is it is out of reach unless you have gov backed incentives..

If you are into gov backed incentives that is fine except other tax payers are picking up the tab.. In other words it costs EVERYONE more to live..

The day you can walk out of dealership with a EV car for $20K-$30K and it gets 400 miles to a charge, fits more than two people, can be flash recharged in less than ten minutes and has no gov incentives or forced manufacturer builds it will never be all that popular.

One needs to read the history and understand that EVs have failed over and over to become more popular than internal combustion.

There are a lot of trade offs with EV, if you can live with the trade offs and short comings then some folks will buy but not enough for practical manufacturing.. Manufacturers are in the business to make money, they can't make enough money building small quantity high cost products that only a small fraction of buyers might be able or willing to pay for the costs.

Todays EVs have extremely costly batteries, motor drive controls and still must pass all Federal mandated safety requirements of internal combustion vehicles.

Batteries have some extreme limitations, extreme cold or hot severely reduces the battery capacity, must have very close complex over current and over temp control systems and a limited useful life span..

Each manufacturer uses batteries that are not compatible with any other vehicle which presents a real problem down the road when the battery expires.. You simply cannot go to Walmart or a Autozone or anywhere else than the dealer to buy a replacement battery..

A common battery design is needed and that isn't going to happen.

In the US, manufacturers are only require to provide parts for ten years after a product has been sunsetted.. After that your modern EV car just becomes another pretty paperweight..

All good and valid points although I think many are fine with shorter range as the growing sales numbers indicate. And you are right that there are trade offs. Living with an EV is different than an ICE powered vehicle. But obviously by the growing sales numbers some are willing to accept those lifestyle changes for the advantages that the EV's bring.

Time will tell if the sales numbers continue their climb although I think the North American market will be a slower growth curve than the rest of the world.

[Gdetrailer]

John & Angela wrote:


Thank you for the interesting info. I totally agree and have always said that EV's are not for everybody and don't fit everyones life style. But they work for a growing number of people and sometimes a little analysis of ones personal driving habits can reveal a lot. But yah. 100 miles of range is not for everybody. However reasonably priced 150 to 200 miles range EV's are readily available now in many parts of the world including the US. (35000 and under) Chevy makes a nice product that although wasn't right for us seemed like a decent drive. Roughly 220 miles of range. The Bolt. But I do agree, distances are longer on this side of the pond and that will limit sales. 300 Miles is easily achievable though...just at a 90,000 price tag. The Tesla in the picture above has 300 miles of range. Still cheaper than the BMW, Mercedes and Audi competition though. I guess its relative to what is affordable. Those are unaffordable for us...at least if I want to retire at 60. 🙂

Sales continue to climb though and right now, one of every two people walking into a showroom in Norway (a cold country) are there to buy an EV of some sort. Recently 51 percent of all new registrations were electric vehicles of some sort. That won't happen here for some time...or at least until they come up with a pickup that is BEV. 🙂

Limited range and huge price tag ($90K) puts EV way out of reach for easily 90% perhaps 95% of the average working persons wages.. Couple that with where you live and how expensive the cost of living is it is out of reach unless you have gov backed incentives..

If you are into gov backed incentives that is fine except other tax payers are picking up the tab.. In other words it costs EVERYONE more to live..

The day you can walk out of dealership with a EV car for $20K-$30K and it gets 400 miles to a charge, fits more than two people, can be flash recharged in less than ten minutes and has no gov incentives or forced manufacturer builds it will never be all that popular.

One needs to read the history and understand that EVs have failed over and over to become more popular than internal combustion.

There are a lot of trade offs with EV, if you can live with the trade offs and short comings then some folks will buy but not enough for practical manufacturing.. Manufacturers are in the business to make money, they can't make enough money building small quantity high cost products that only a small fraction of buyers might be able or willing to pay for the costs.

Todays EVs have extremely costly batteries, motor drive controls and still must pass all Federal mandated safety requirements of internal combustion vehicles.

Batteries have some extreme limitations, extreme cold or hot severely reduces the battery capacity, must have very close complex over current and over temp control systems and a limited useful life span..

Each manufacturer uses batteries that are not compatible with any other vehicle which presents a real problem down the road when the battery expires.. You simply cannot go to Walmart or a Autozone or anywhere else than the dealer to buy a replacement battery..

A common battery design is needed and that isn't going to happen.

In the US, manufacturers are only require to provide parts for ten years after a product has been sunsetted.. After that your modern EV car just becomes another pretty paperweight..

[agesilaus]

Let me point out something else, the mileage numbers that the EPA produces out of a black top hat are bogus. They assume that power plants work at 100 percent efficiency with no losses. That ignores the second law of thermodynamics, in actuality power plants struggle to get to 40 percent efficiency and many aren't even close to that. The Dept of Energy uses a more honest method and comes up with numbers about one third of the EPA smoke and mirrors.

Forbes magazine

The author of the above is a Campground operator who runs a lot of Federal Campgrounds as a contractor.

I had heard this explained before but let me tell you finding it using a search engine wasn't easy. The results were flooded with EPA and other pro-electric sites. Almost like someone was trying to hide this fact.

One strange fact, whenever I open a page on Forbes I have to open it once and it will be the wrong page, I close that and then reopen it and it will be the right article. May be my ad blocker interacting with the Forbes software.

[John___Angela]

DSteiner51 wrote:
In the mid '80's I bought a '84 Ford Escort wagon with a 2000cc KoyoToyo Diesel engine and 5 speed manual tranny. Around home we got in the high 30's low 40's mpg and on a trip with 3 teenagers and 2 adults plus luggage across the state of Pa on the turnpike we would regularly average 54 mpg. Slightly better east bound and slightly worse west bound.

Driving back and forth to Cleveland by myself the best I got was 61 mpg but average was 59 to 60 mpg. Today my 650 bike gets 50- 51mpg going back and forth to work with all the EPA junk. Even the hybrids of today don't get that mileage with all the EPA junk on them. We burn considerably more fuel and dump more exhaust then claim cleaner air. We claim that burning more fossil fuel we get less exhaust while we also get less energy so what happens to the rest of the fuel? And we call this progress?

Well, I am not a scientist, but in the 70's before we had all these regulations that may lower our mileage we could see the air in many cities. Now not, so yah, that is progress.

JMHO

[DSteiner51]

In the mid '80's I bought a '84 Ford Escort wagon with a 2000cc KoyoToyo Diesel engine and 5 speed manual tranny. Around home we got in the high 30's low 40's mpg and on a trip with 3 teenagers and 2 adults plus luggage across the state of Pa on the turnpike we would regularly average 54 mpg. Slightly better east bound and slightly worse west bound.

Driving back and forth to Cleveland by myself the best I got was 61 mpg but average was 59 to 60 mpg. Today my 650 bike gets 50- 51mpg going back and forth to work with all the EPA junk. Even the hybrids of today don't get that mileage with all the EPA junk on them. We burn considerably more fuel and dump more exhaust then claim cleaner air. We claim that burning more fossil fuel we get less exhaust while we also get less energy so what happens to the rest of the fuel? And we call this progress?

[John___Angela]

rjxj wrote:

John & Angela wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those.

Who is arguing... and are there really people that are anti green. 😉

But seriously, any EV owners I know didn't buy there cars because they are "pro green". They bought them because they like the cars. Really, they are a pretty nice drive. We are just regular people. When it was time to replace our older cars we analysed our driving and figured out that the EV's would fit the bill. Fun to drive, low maintenance, very low operating costs, fast and nimble, no hanging around gas stations and super quiet. Also no oil spots on the garage floor (our cars were starting to drip from time to time). Lots of neat features like programable pre-warm and no engine running to do it. EV's are not for everyone and for sure they don't replace a pickup...yet. But I don't think it is necessary to categorize a person in some derogatory manner because they like a certain type of vehicle. I loved my truck when I needed one. Now I don't but I still talk to truck people. :W

Just sayin.

It is a very interesting video. I dont know if the transportation side will change that quickly but I can see big changes with solar power and homes. The solar panel prices do keep dropping and battery technology is growing more quickly. I believe that the big change that has to come in electric vehicles will be at the wheel drive motors. I dont know what the current designs are but assume that they still utilize some sort of differential and gearbox. I have an 48/60 volt 5 hp electric outboard motor that is a brushless pancake design. This motor is about 10 in diameter and 5 inches thick. The big advancement will come when this type of motor eliminates most drive train losses and puts the motor shaft at the wheel hub or the wheel becomes the motor. Traction control, regenerative braking, differential control will all be at the wheel and computer controlled. There is no reason to accept gear/bearing/oil friction losses. So what companies are you invested in? 🙂 Thanks for posting the video.

Interesting info on the motors. I am not up on how they do it but I believe Tesla and Nissan do it slightly different. I believe Mercedes does it like TESLA...however that is. Sorry not much help here.

No stock in any company but am a bit of an enthusiast. Really they are just so much nicer to drive than a gas or diesel burner that I just get a little carried away sometimes. Anyway, looking out the window, its cold, going to use my iphone to turn on the heat in my leaf before I leave. Think I'll turn on the heated steering wheel too. 🙂

Thanks for the interesting reply.

John

[John___Angela]

Gdetrailer wrote:

John & Angela wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those. Here is a more honest look from the lefty Hill site: Projections

I found another that gave the honest guess of an adoption rate in the US of 3 to 10 percent in 2025. No one knows in other words. Obama said there would be 1,000,000 electric vehicles on the road in 2015. He was just off by 72 percent

In order for electric cars to spread you need certain things to happen in my opinion:

1) Range has to go way up, to 400 miles minimum, to kill range anxiety. This is essential to get non megacity drivers interested.

2) There would have to be a massive expansion of public charging stations.

3) Charging would have to be much faster, waiting 60-90 minutes to get a charge will not be popular.

4) Gas prices would have to skyrocket again. Not what anyone expects anymore after the shale revolution. Oil prices are projected to stay below $60 for at least the next 10 years.

5) Big electric vehicle would have to become available: SUV, Vans and Pickups. People do not want tiny cars.

6) Normal accessories would have to be standard on electrics. I mean a/c and heating along with now expected electronics like backup cameras and lane departure.
-------------------------------

Considering all the above I just don't see them being anything more than a niche product. Plus over all this is the Lithium production bottleneck. Electrics take almost 20 percent of worldwide Li production now. That does not leave room for a 10 fold expansion. Unless new Li deposits are found.

I think some of your points are valid but obviously you are looking at it from one nations point of view and I am looking at a broader view. Just wanted to mention a few things though as you seem interested.

Electrics are already available with greater than 300 mile ranges. They are 90,000 bucks and cheaper, faster and better appointed than their BMW and Mercedes competition. They build 80,000 a year and half are sold in the US. TESLA. But remember, not everyone needs 300 to 400 miles of range. For many 100 miles is more than adequate.

Agreed on the expansion of chargers. Long way to go but they are being added at a rate of about 1000 per year. Some are fast chargers and many are destination chargers but don't forget, the vast majority of charging is done at home at night at off peak rates. Life is different with an EV, you treat it like a cell phone or a tablet. Plug it in at night, ready to go in the morning. We plug both of ours in once or twice a week.

Chargers are getting faster all the time. The newest Chademos are 150 KWh rate although the various cars available today are still only accepting under 100. Ours charges at a max rate of 50 KW. A fast charge for us is typically 20 minutes although we rarely ever use a fast charger.

Agree on the gas price thing. I think it will go down actually as there is less demand. However, even at 2.50 a gallon it is still about a fifth of the cost for an electric. Most countries in the world have higher fuel costs than the US. So yah I believe the US will be one of the slower adaptors of the technology. Nothing wrong with that. Distances are longer in North America and there are more people that need longer range vehicles.

SUV's, crossovers and compact to large sedans make up the bulk of EV production. You might be mis-informed on that. There are a couple of small cars like smart cars and fiat 500 that are electric but they are in the minority of electrics.

This is a typical TESLA S sedan. Zero to sixty in 2.7 seconds. Comfortable seating for 5. They sell 80,000 a year of these at 90,000 a piece.



This is our leaf. Shorter range (200 KM) but adequate for us. 5 passenger, nice trunk, all seats heated, steering wheel heated, great sound system, great climate control, NAV. Very nice. Peppy but not like the Tesla. With a little bargaining 30,000 bucks and thats with zero incentives or tax rebate thingys. Not for everyone but works for us.



This may be what you are thinking when you think electric vehicles and you are not alone. This is Angela in our cabrio smart ED. Lots of fun. Quick and nimble. We actually do more miles on this one than our car. This is definetly a niche car...but also cheaper. Kinda my favourite though.



And reference your last point, I'm not sure I understood it. All electric vehicles that I know of have AC,Heat, heated seats, power windows, pretty much anything an Ice car has. I am not an expert and maybe there are some that don't have these features but we have driven pretty much every available EV and I have never seen one that isn't as well equipped or better than any of its ICE counterparts. Is that what you were referring to?

Hope this clarifies some things. I appreciated your comments.

John

While YOUR EV examples are "eye candy" they ALL have the same "Achilles heels" problems that plagued the car manufacturers back in the late 1880s!

Battery range.

Weight.

Cost.

Yeah, folks like to pretend that EV autos are a "new" and "green" thing.. They are not new or green by any longshot..

One MUST understand and appreciate automotive history in order to get a grip on the real reality of today's modern EVs same Achilles heel and why it has not moved from a short range niche market segment.

Perhaps you should do some research, look up Baker, Riker, Columbia, Electric Vehicle Company as those WERE the real "pioneers" and major "players" of electric vehicles..

Sure your examples work fine if you are 20 miles or less from your job AND you have perfect 70 degree temps, no snow or ice, wrecks or traffic jambs to deal with.. But the reality is not everyone wants and can be limited to 100 miles nor do they have the perfect commute..

My job is 100 miles round trip, employer does not have a charging station, no charging stations anywhere between my job and home and as far as I know there is none withing a 200 mile radius of my home (thats 400 miles).. I have heard tails of the PA Turnpike CONSIDERING putting in charging stations but that will take huge amounts of money and time and not to mention does nothing for my purposes (IE too far away from the Turnpike to use)..

Here is a quick History lesson on EVs.. But I do urge you to do some research for yourself.. There IS a lot of history and history tends to repeat it's self (IE failures)..

Mr Riker (Riker Electric Vehicle Company) who was a genius electrical Engineer invented the first fully enclosed waterproof electric motor for use in his vehicles, who made a break through on electric motor efficiency by inventing the slotted rotors which are STILL in use today in MODERN electric motors eventually realized that the BATTERY CAPACITY VS WEIGHT was the pitfall of EV autos..

Mr Riker had envisioned that there would be a BATTERY EXCHANGE NETWORK as a means to get around the downside of battery capacity, but realized that it was not practical.

EV manufacturing continued up to the the early 1920s but by late 1920s all EVs manufacturing had ceased with the exception of Electric Vehicle Company which manufactured EV TRUCKS for use in industrial plants but that pretty much was the end..

At the PEAK of EVs at that time there where not only EV autos but trucks, taxi's, buses, heck even the US postal system bought and used Riker trucks to deliver mail!

Mr Riker sold his Company to Electric Vehicle Company in 1901 and took an Engineering job at Locomobile as the Engineer of their FIRST Internal Combustion Engine powered vehicle.

Mr Riker was the First President of the SAE with Mr Ford and many other prominent famous names of the times as the first board members of the SAE organizations..

I am not saying there is anything wrong with YOUR choice, just saying that EV is not for "everyone" and because of that it will remain a very small "niche" product..

Sure EVs have "improved" the range a little bit, but not enough for the large masses to switch to.

I should know, I DO own a 1901 EV that was converted to a GASOLINE ENGINE due to the whole battery and charging issue back in 1907..

Thank you for the interesting info. I totally agree and have always said that EV's are not for everybody and don't fit everyones life style. But they work for a growing number of people and sometimes a little analysis of ones personal driving habits can reveal a lot. But yah. 100 miles of range is not for everybody. However reasonably priced 150 to 200 miles range EV's are readily available now in many parts of the world including the US. (35000 and under) Chevy makes a nice product that although wasn't right for us seemed like a decent drive. Roughly 220 miles of range. The Bolt. But I do agree, distances are longer on this side of the pond and that will limit sales. 300 Miles is easily achievable though...just at a 90,000 price tag. The Tesla in the picture above has 300 miles of range. Still cheaper than the BMW, Mercedes and Audi competition though. I guess its relative to what is affordable. Those are unaffordable for us...at least if I want to retire at 60. 🙂

Sales continue to climb though and right now, one of every two people walking into a showroom in Norway (a cold country) are there to buy an EV of some sort. Recently 51 percent of all new registrations were electric vehicles of some sort. That won't happen here for some time...or at least until they come up with a pickup that is BEV. 🙂

[Gdetrailer]

John & Angela wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those. Here is a more honest look from the lefty Hill site: Projections

I found another that gave the honest guess of an adoption rate in the US of 3 to 10 percent in 2025. No one knows in other words. Obama said there would be 1,000,000 electric vehicles on the road in 2015. He was just off by 72 percent

In order for electric cars to spread you need certain things to happen in my opinion:

1) Range has to go way up, to 400 miles minimum, to kill range anxiety. This is essential to get non megacity drivers interested.

2) There would have to be a massive expansion of public charging stations.

3) Charging would have to be much faster, waiting 60-90 minutes to get a charge will not be popular.

4) Gas prices would have to skyrocket again. Not what anyone expects anymore after the shale revolution. Oil prices are projected to stay below $60 for at least the next 10 years.

5) Big electric vehicle would have to become available: SUV, Vans and Pickups. People do not want tiny cars.

6) Normal accessories would have to be standard on electrics. I mean a/c and heating along with now expected electronics like backup cameras and lane departure.
-------------------------------

Considering all the above I just don't see them being anything more than a niche product. Plus over all this is the Lithium production bottleneck. Electrics take almost 20 percent of worldwide Li production now. That does not leave room for a 10 fold expansion. Unless new Li deposits are found.

I think some of your points are valid but obviously you are looking at it from one nations point of view and I am looking at a broader view. Just wanted to mention a few things though as you seem interested.

Electrics are already available with greater than 300 mile ranges. They are 90,000 bucks and cheaper, faster and better appointed than their BMW and Mercedes competition. They build 80,000 a year and half are sold in the US. TESLA. But remember, not everyone needs 300 to 400 miles of range. For many 100 miles is more than adequate.

Agreed on the expansion of chargers. Long way to go but they are being added at a rate of about 1000 per year. Some are fast chargers and many are destination chargers but don't forget, the vast majority of charging is done at home at night at off peak rates. Life is different with an EV, you treat it like a cell phone or a tablet. Plug it in at night, ready to go in the morning. We plug both of ours in once or twice a week.

Chargers are getting faster all the time. The newest Chademos are 150 KWh rate although the various cars available today are still only accepting under 100. Ours charges at a max rate of 50 KW. A fast charge for us is typically 20 minutes although we rarely ever use a fast charger.

Agree on the gas price thing. I think it will go down actually as there is less demand. However, even at 2.50 a gallon it is still about a fifth of the cost for an electric. Most countries in the world have higher fuel costs than the US. So yah I believe the US will be one of the slower adaptors of the technology. Nothing wrong with that. Distances are longer in North America and there are more people that need longer range vehicles.

SUV's, crossovers and compact to large sedans make up the bulk of EV production. You might be mis-informed on that. There are a couple of small cars like smart cars and fiat 500 that are electric but they are in the minority of electrics.

This is a typical TESLA S sedan. Zero to sixty in 2.7 seconds. Comfortable seating for 5. They sell 80,000 a year of these at 90,000 a piece.



This is our leaf. Shorter range (200 KM) but adequate for us. 5 passenger, nice trunk, all seats heated, steering wheel heated, great sound system, great climate control, NAV. Very nice. Peppy but not like the Tesla. With a little bargaining 30,000 bucks and thats with zero incentives or tax rebate thingys. Not for everyone but works for us.



This may be what you are thinking when you think electric vehicles and you are not alone. This is Angela in our cabrio smart ED. Lots of fun. Quick and nimble. We actually do more miles on this one than our car. This is definetly a niche car...but also cheaper. Kinda my favourite though.



And reference your last point, I'm not sure I understood it. All electric vehicles that I know of have AC,Heat, heated seats, power windows, pretty much anything an Ice car has. I am not an expert and maybe there are some that don't have these features but we have driven pretty much every available EV and I have never seen one that isn't as well equipped or better than any of its ICE counterparts. Is that what you were referring to?

Hope this clarifies some things. I appreciated your comments.

John

While YOUR EV examples are "eye candy" they ALL have the same "Achilles heels" problems that plagued the car manufacturers back in the late 1880s!

Battery range.

Weight.

Cost.

Yeah, folks like to pretend that EV autos are a "new" and "green" thing.. They are not new or green by any longshot..

One MUST understand and appreciate automotive history in order to get a grip on the real reality of today's modern EVs same Achilles heel and why it has not moved from a short range niche market segment.

Perhaps you should do some research, look up Baker, Riker, Columbia, Electric Vehicle Company as those WERE the real "pioneers" and major "players" of electric vehicles..

Sure your examples work fine if you are 20 miles or less from your job AND you have perfect 70 degree temps, no snow or ice, wrecks or traffic jambs to deal with.. But the reality is not everyone wants and can be limited to 100 miles nor do they have the perfect commute..

My job is 100 miles round trip, employer does not have a charging station, no charging stations anywhere between my job and home and as far as I know there is none withing a 200 mile radius of my home (thats 400 miles).. I have heard tails of the PA Turnpike CONSIDERING putting in charging stations but that will take huge amounts of money and time and not to mention does nothing for my purposes (IE too far away from the Turnpike to use)..

Here is a quick History lesson on EVs.. But I do urge you to do some research for yourself.. There IS a lot of history and history tends to repeat it's self (IE failures)..

Mr Riker (Riker Electric Vehicle Company) who was a genius electrical Engineer invented the first fully enclosed waterproof electric motor for use in his vehicles, who made a break through on electric motor efficiency by inventing the slotted rotors which are STILL in use today in MODERN electric motors eventually realized that the BATTERY CAPACITY VS WEIGHT was the pitfall of EV autos..

Mr Riker had envisioned that there would be a BATTERY EXCHANGE NETWORK as a means to get around the downside of battery capacity, but realized that it was not practical.

EV manufacturing continued up to the the early 1920s but by late 1920s all EVs manufacturing had ceased with the exception of Electric Vehicle Company which manufactured EV TRUCKS for use in industrial plants but that pretty much was the end..

At the PEAK of EVs at that time there where not only EV autos but trucks, taxi's, buses, heck even the US postal system bought and used Riker trucks to deliver mail!

Mr Riker sold his Company to Electric Vehicle Company in 1901 and took an Engineering job at Locomobile as the Engineer of their FIRST Internal Combustion Engine powered vehicle.

Mr Riker was the First President of the SAE with Mr Ford and many other prominent famous names of the times as the first board members of the SAE organizations..

I am not saying there is anything wrong with YOUR choice, just saying that EV is not for "everyone" and because of that it will remain a very small "niche" product..

Sure EVs have "improved" the range a little bit, but not enough for the large masses to switch to.

I should know, I DO own a 1901 EV that was converted to a GASOLINE ENGINE due to the whole battery and charging issue back in 1907..

[azrving]

John & Angela wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those.

Who is arguing... and are there really people that are anti green. 😉

But seriously, any EV owners I know didn't buy there cars because they are "pro green". They bought them because they like the cars. Really, they are a pretty nice drive. We are just regular people. When it was time to replace our older cars we analysed our driving and figured out that the EV's would fit the bill. Fun to drive, low maintenance, very low operating costs, fast and nimble, no hanging around gas stations and super quiet. Also no oil spots on the garage floor (our cars were starting to drip from time to time). Lots of neat features like programable pre-warm and no engine running to do it. EV's are not for everyone and for sure they don't replace a pickup...yet. But I don't think it is necessary to categorize a person in some derogatory manner because they like a certain type of vehicle. I loved my truck when I needed one. Now I don't but I still talk to truck people. :W

Just sayin.

It is a very interesting video. I dont know if the transportation side will change that quickly but I can see big changes with solar power and homes. The solar panel prices do keep dropping and battery technology is growing more quickly. I believe that the big change that has to come in electric vehicles will be at the wheel drive motors. I dont know what the current designs are but assume that they still utilize some sort of differential and gearbox. I have an 48/60 volt 5 hp electric outboard motor that is a brushless pancake design. This motor is about 10 in diameter and 5 inches thick. The big advancement will come when this type of motor eliminates most drive train losses and puts the motor shaft at the wheel hub or the wheel becomes the motor. Traction control, regenerative braking, differential control will all be at the wheel and computer controlled. There is no reason to accept gear/bearing/oil friction losses. So what companies are you invested in? 🙂 Thanks for posting the video.

[John___Angela]

agesilaus wrote:
No when I think of an electric I am thinking about a Leaf or Prius. Yes I am making these points in a US centric viewpoint. We don't have $6 a gallon gas over here and it would make for a lot of politicians being voted out of office if they tried that. I haven't seen an electric large SUV or Pickup yet. If you are out of the US you may not appreciate how many of those are on the roads here.

Yah I get that. We are in Canada and where we live is definitely truck country as well. We are well traveled though, speak several languages and have seen much of Europe and some of North Africa as well as some of Latin America. Latin America has a fair amount of trucks as well but they are smaller than what you and I are used to. We NEVER saw pickups in any of our travels to Europe other than the smaller type again. Any EV that evolves into a pickup will be developed here first but I think that is a ways away yet.

Most of the crossover EV's currently are imports, KIA Soul etc. They have only been out in the last year and are finding their market on this side of the pond. Europe has literally three times the number of models available as we do....mostly because they make more economical sense there. The Tesla model X is a nice SUV that is way out of my price range but they sell them as fast as they make them.

Both the Tesla X and the Tesla S have 4000 or 5000 pound towing capacities. Nice if you can afford it. There is talk of an under 60,000 version some year. Time will tell.



Interesting times we live in.

[agesilaus]

No when I think of an electric I am thinking about a Leaf or Prius. Yes I am making these points in a US centric viewpoint. We don't have $6 a gallon gas over here and it would make for a lot of politicians being voted out of office if they tried that. I haven't seen an electric large SUV or Pickup yet. If you are out of the US you may not appreciate how many of those are on the roads here.

[John___Angela]

agesilaus wrote:
All of these sites are far left biased and are hardly reliable. I could find some articles on Breitbart that argue the exact opposite. And you pro-green types would reject those. Here is a more honest look from the lefty Hill site: Projections

I found another that gave the honest guess of an adoption rate in the US of 3 to 10 percent in 2025. No one knows in other words. Obama said there would be 1,000,000 electric vehicles on the road in 2015. He was just off by 72 percent

In order for electric cars to spread you need certain things to happen in my opinion:

1) Range has to go way up, to 400 miles minimum, to kill range anxiety. This is essential to get non megacity drivers interested.

2) There would have to be a massive expansion of public charging stations.

3) Charging would have to be much faster, waiting 60-90 minutes to get a charge will not be popular.

4) Gas prices would have to skyrocket again. Not what anyone expects anymore after the shale revolution. Oil prices are projected to stay below $60 for at least the next 10 years.

5) Big electric vehicle would have to become available: SUV, Vans and Pickups. People do not want tiny cars.

6) Normal accessories would have to be standard on electrics. I mean a/c and heating along with now expected electronics like backup cameras and lane departure.
-------------------------------

Considering all the above I just don't see them being anything more than a niche product. Plus over all this is the Lithium production bottleneck. Electrics take almost 20 percent of worldwide Li production now. That does not leave room for a 10 fold expansion. Unless new Li deposits are found.

I think some of your points are valid but obviously you are looking at it from one nations point of view and I am looking at a broader view. Just wanted to mention a few things though as you seem interested.

Electrics are already available with greater than 300 mile ranges. They are 90,000 bucks and cheaper, faster and better appointed than their BMW and Mercedes competition. They build 80,000 a year and half are sold in the US. TESLA. But remember, not everyone needs 300 to 400 miles of range. For many 100 miles is more than adequate.

Agreed on the expansion of chargers. Long way to go but they are being added at a rate of about 1000 per year. Some are fast chargers and many are destination chargers but don't forget, the vast majority of charging is done at home at night at off peak rates. Life is different with an EV, you treat it like a cell phone or a tablet. Plug it in at night, ready to go in the morning. We plug both of ours in once or twice a week.

Chargers are getting faster all the time. The newest Chademos are 150 KWh rate although the various cars available today are still only accepting under 100. Ours charges at a max rate of 50 KW. A fast charge for us is typically 20 minutes although we rarely ever use a fast charger.

Agree on the gas price thing. I think it will go down actually as there is less demand. However, even at 2.50 a gallon it is still about a fifth of the cost for an electric. Most countries in the world have higher fuel costs than the US. So yah I believe the US will be one of the slower adaptors of the technology. Nothing wrong with that. Distances are longer in North America and there are more people that need longer range vehicles.

SUV's, crossovers and compact to large sedans make up the bulk of EV production. You might be mis-informed on that. There are a couple of small cars like smart cars and fiat 500 that are electric but they are in the minority of electrics.

This is a typical TESLA S sedan. Zero to sixty in 2.7 seconds. Comfortable seating for 5. They sell 80,000 a year of these at 90,000 a piece. 300 Mile range. (500 KM)



This is our leaf. Shorter range (200 KM) but adequate for us. 5 passenger, nice trunk, all seats heated, steering wheel heated, great sound system, great climate control, NAV. Very nice. Peppy but not like the Tesla. With a little bargaining 30,000 bucks and thats with zero incentives or tax rebate thingys. Not for everyone but works for us.



This may be what you are thinking when you think electric vehicles and you are not alone. This is Angela in our cabrio smart ED. Lots of fun. Quick and nimble. We actually do more miles on this one than our other car (the leaf). This is definetly a niche car...but also cheaper. Kinda my favourite though.



And reference your last point, I'm not sure I understood it. All electric vehicles that I know of have AC,Heat, heated seats, power windows, pretty much anything an Ice car has. I am not an expert and maybe there are some that don't have these features but we have driven pretty much every available EV and I have never seen one that isn't as well equipped or better than any of its ICE counterparts. Is that what you were referring to?

Hope this clarifies some things. I appreciated your comments.

John