Is there a used truck bubble?

[jerem0621]

I'm somewhat shopping... well... window shopping for a truck right now. Seems that everywhere I look there are three to five year old trucks that are still running 30-40k plus...

Mind you this is in the half ton market.

A few weeks ago I was offered a 2014 SuperCrew 2wd XLT with the 5.0, 3.31 rear axle ratio, IBC, and Sync... and my favorite color in the F150... blue...for 31k OTD... I wanted to think about it because I really want at least a 3.55 rear axle ratio.

HAD 16 MILES ON IT

Anyway.. stuck to my guns.. now was not the time for my new truck and I walked away.

I looked at a comparable 2015 Chevy Silverado LT with the 5.3 and a crew cab...while not 31k OTD, I was offered around 34k before tax..Still not a terrible price.

Just for kicks, I wanted to look at used trucks... On both the Chevy and the Ford Lot they had 3 year old trucks for more or the same money as the NEW trucks... I can't understand this...

I went to CarMax just to see whats up... they had a two year old F150 with 40k miles... IDENTICAL to the one I was just offered for 31k OTD except it was 4x4... everything else was the same. Its price was $32,900.

since then, I have been window shopping online for a few weeks now...

2008 Tundras with under 50k miles are still 25-30k plus... Just a few grand off new SR5 Tundra's.

I do not understand this phenomenon.. how are these USED trucks selling for the same money or MORE than the new trucks?

I have a friend who buys trucks at Auction. He says that the prices are cRaZy on used trucks right now.

Seems to me that there is a bubble on expensive used trucks...Have you all notices this as well or is it just regional around Tennessee?

Thanks!

Jeremiah

[rjsurfer]

Interesting topic, I noticed the same thing, high prices for used trucks. And outrageous prices for new diesels.

Being retired they are all out of my price range, and will probably remain so.

My 03 Cummins pulls my fiver nicely and is fairly comfortable considering its age. And with a rebuilt HD auto tranny there isn't too much more to go wrong @ 100k miles.

Eeezy Peezy to work on and with the Bully Dog set to Tow mode plenty of power for me.

My point is this, it will probably be my last truck, anything that goes wrong from here on out will be fixed at any price and I'll be ahead of the game. I can honestly say I can see having this truck for the next 15+ years.

Ron W.

[MitchF150]

When I bought my brand new 13 F150 in January of 14, I got it for 33k (before tax/license). It's sticker was for around 43k.

There was a used 12,11 and 13 on the lot, but they all wanted over 30k for them and they had at least 30k miles on them already!

Plus, none of them were equipped the way I wanted..

Another plus... I got a 1.75% interest rate for buying new. If I had bought used, the interest would have been higher..

After a trade and 10k down, payments are $393/month for 6 years.

I was looking for used, but found the new one came out ahead and only had 54 miles on when I signed the papers for it.. I put over 20 miles for the test drive alone!

Good luck Jeremiah! I know you've gone thru a few vehicles of all sizes! Hope you find the one that is gonna work best for ya!

Mitch

[time2roll]

I gave $30k for my new Lariat 14 years ago. KBB says it is still worth $7k.
Never thought I would still have it but the best used vehicles are the ones bought new and go the distance.
JMHO

[BubbaChris]

About 8 years ago I needed to sell my Lexus GS400. I got a trade-in quote that I wasn't happy with. Then went to my Lexus dealer and that was much better. Then CarMax and they were $2K below everyone else. That's how CarMax is going to stay in business. They make it easy for the seller, but a great deal for them. In my case I went the eBay route with over 30-photos to support my case. Had a guy bring a flatbed trailer from 300 miles away and I did over $1K better than what the Lexus guys offered.

Last year when I bought my TV it was a former rental that my local Ford dealer picked up at auction. It lost $1 per mile driven off MSRP. SUVs are still lagging the PUs on the pricing bubble. I probably could have done better if I had more time, but DW was adamant we weren't going to start out with her mid-sized SUV as a TV.

[minnow]

4bearhug wrote:
Just because someone is advertising a used truck for what appears to be a high price doesn't mean that it's selling at that price. I made the same assumption as I was doing research to sell my 06 Ram 2500, Cummins diesel Quad cab, 56,500k miles. Both KBB and NADA said private party sale of $27,500-28,500. Just to see what else was out there I searched on Cars. com and Autotraders for same vehicle. Everything was $27k and up with over 120K miles on clock. So I assumed my asking price of $26,500 should be a good starting point. That was a month ago and yet to get any interest. Now asking $24,900 to see if I can work my way down to the real market. My point to all of this is some of these pricing websites are just not realistic, in my opinion.

Might want to take it to CarMax or the other place(can't think of the name) and see what they'd give to buy ir from you. You'd then know what the wholesale going price is.

[4bearhug]

Just because someone is advertising a used truck for what appears to be a high price doesn't mean that it's selling at that price. I made the same assumption as I was doing research to sell my 06 Ram 2500, Cummins diesel Quad cab, 56,500k miles. Both KBB and NADA said private party sale of $27,500-28,500. Just to see what else was out there I searched on Cars. com and Autotraders for same vehicle. Everything was $27k and up with over 120K miles on clock. So I assumed my asking price of $26,500 should be a good starting point. That was a month ago and yet to get any interest. Now asking $24,900 to see if I can work my way down to the real market. My point to all of this is some of these pricing websites are just not realistic, in my opinion.

[4X4Dodger]

jerem0621 wrote:
Thanks for the comments everyone. I use to exclusively buy used...but now the value with late model used just isn't there (as said above).

I do think that eventually the used car bubble will burst and the value that used cars and trucks have will come back...but now...let the buyer beware...really look at new prices and not just sticker.

Thanks!

Jeremiah

Well I am not so sure I would buy the argument above about used not being a good value.

If you buy the right vehicle at the RIGHT PRICE ie not overpaying and that vehicle is very slightly used you will benefit from the depreciation that has been taken on that vehicle already, leaving you with a like-new truck/car at a much reduced price. Further you will still have the majority of the warranty.

This really is a no-lose situation. You gain immediate equity beyond your down payment due to the value of the vehicle vs the price (if you have made a good deal)and for a one year old vehicle most banks will finance for 5 years if you want/need that.

Lastly car finance rates are at very very low percentages now 1.9,2.9 etc.

I think the real evidence is that this is a great time to buy a used car given the provisos I mention above.

One Example: I bought my Dodge 4x4 2500 crew cab slt 2014 with towing pkg 5.7L for $28,500. It's new price here in ND would have been $40k. I got this deal because it had been ordered from the factory by Enterprise Leasing and from what I can gather the lease deal fell through. It was a vehicle that Enterprise apparently didnt want or need so they wholesaled it. It was virtually brand new had almost never been driven. All the suspension parts still had their paper part no. tags on them and it was flawless. Had not even had it's first oil change. According to KBB and NADA which I just checked recently the TRADE IN VALUE to a dealer is above $31,000.

Find one like this (there are lots more out there but they take hunting down) and you will have a great used vehicle.

[Grit_dog]

All of the above.
And yes truck prices have gone through the roof it seems.
If you're not in a hurry, willing to buy private party and know what you're doing/looking for, there are still deals to be had, but they are not often and they go quick.
I'm in the same boat and it's not a bad one. Bought my 07 in 08 when the Economy tanked and diesel hit $4-5/gal, 10,000 miles, thousands in add ons. Tint, rear dvd, steps, programmer, matching topper, better tires, etc. Gave $30 k.
Could still get mid to high 20s today with 130k on the clock. May even knock on $30k with everything the truck has on it now, to the right person.
But yeah, that same "deal" now would cost me over $40k used. Saw one a few months ago and it was gone in 60 seconds!
A buddy at work dropped $45k on a new Eco boost 2 years ago. And that was like 8k off sticker. That's just retarded for a 1/2 ton.

One other thing to consider is how much the vehicles have advanced in the last 5-10 years. From the mid 70s until fuel injection came around, vehicle development stagnated. A 1986 whatever didn't have any more ponies, brakes, useful features, better suspensions etc than a 1976 model. At least the 90s brought decent fuel injection and some better body/ chassis combos.
Now compare an 04 to a 14 model diesel. Almost twice the tq, way better chassis, excellent transmissions, eb, touch screens, Bluetooth, drives like a car but will tie a house, you get the idea.
Gassers now have 6-8 speed trans, many models over 400 ft lbs. same deal.
A lot of advancements as well have driven up the price.
I've had to spend many thousands to have my 07 perform like a new diesel and it's still wrapped in an older chassis.

[jerem0621]

bcbouy wrote:
there's no shortage of used trucks around my area.as long as you don't mind white,you can find all sorts of makes and models from the leasing companies selling off their 2 year old lease return stock.usually at around 60/70 % of the cost of new.the company i got mine from just happened to have a parking lot full of rams.right now they have mostly gm's.

Thanks for the tip...I don't mind white at all as long as the interior is comfortable.

Thanks!

Jeremiah

[bcbouy]

there's no shortage of used trucks around my area.as long as you don't mind white,you can find all sorts of makes and models from the leasing companies selling off their 2 year old lease return stock.usually at around 60/70 % of the cost of new.the company i got mine from just happened to have a parking lot full of rams.right now they have mostly gm's.

[jerem0621]

Thanks for the comments everyone. I use to exclusively buy used...but now the value with late model used just isn't there (as said above).

I do think that eventually the used car bubble will burst and the value that used cars and trucks have will come back...but now...let the buyer beware...really look at new prices and not just sticker.

Thanks!

Jeremiah

[crcr]

TakingThe5th wrote:
I think DEF also plays in to a degree on the diesels. Some folk simply don't like the idea. I have heard several people say they would prefer a bulletproof Ford 6.0 over the newer 6.7. That's quite a statement against DEF given the good reputation of the 6.7 but it speaks to people's preferences. Some felt the same way when they preferred the 7.3 engine, and there was a time when people didn't like the 7.3. People are funny with their trucks and that too impacts the price.

If I should trade up to a new or newer diesel truck, personally, I would prefer a vehicle with DEF. They get better mileage and it is my understanding that with a DEF system, regens are infrequent and not really an issue as they sometimes are with pre-DEF trucks.

[crcr]

Most of the time, new car dealers make a lot more money on used than on new vehicles, so they are more than happy to sell used vehicles. And as someone mentioned, many folks assume they couldn't afford a new vehicle, so go looking exclusively for late model used. Even if they look at the new truck while there, the sticker scares them back to looking at late model used, as they may not realize they can get at least $10K off that new truck sticker.

We have a one year old Honda Accord, and we just got a letter from the dealer informing us they could put us into a new Honda for the same or even less payment. Of course, they don't mention that of course, the term of the loan would be extended. My point is, this letter is another indication that new car dealers are scouring the bushes trying to buy late model used vehicles for their lots.

[TakingThe5th]

I think DEF also plays in to a degree on the diesels. Some folk simply don't like the idea. I have heard several people say they would prefer a bulletproof Ford 6.0 over the newer 6.7. That's quite a statement against DEF given the good reputation of the 6.7 but it speaks to people's preferences. Some felt the same way when they preferred the 7.3 engine, and there was a time when people didn't like the 7.3. People are funny with their trucks and that too impacts the price.