The RV Demand Continues

[lryrob9301]

From the Business JournalHome
Travel
A major RV maker now has more than $18 billion in backlogged orders and says its dealers may not be fully restocked until 2023

RV maker Thor Industries has a $18.07 billion order backlog.
Demand for RVs has remained strong since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
CEO Bob Martin says it may continue restocking its dealerships into 2023.

Famed RV maker Thor Industries now has an $18.07 billion order backlog as of October 31 as demand for tiny homes on wheels continues to remain strong through the COVID-19 pandemic, the company said in its 2022 first-quarter earnings report on December 8.
Thor Industries — which owns brands like Jayco and Airstream — first saw rising sales in May and June of 2020, especially from first-time RVers, Bob Martin, Thor's president and CEO, told Insider in May 2020. Since then, interest has yet to taper off: The RV maker achieved $3.96 billion in net sales in the first quarter of 2022, a 56% increase compared to the same time last year.
Thor has now reported record net sales for three successive quarters despite labor, cost, and supply chain "challenges," which it predicts it'll still continue to face, Martin said in the earnings report. However, the RV maker has been "pretty much sold out for the next year" as dealers have "virtually no inventory," Martin told CNBC's Jim Cramer on "Mad Money" in June.
"Independent dealer sentiment remains positive and consumer demand for our RV products remains strong," Martin said in the earnings report. "The dealer restocking process will still take a number of quarters to complete and could possibly extend into calendar 2023."
To alleviate this backlog, Thor Industries acquired Airxcel, an RV parts manufacturer. Martin called this acquisition a "key piece" in Thor's efforts to bolster its supply chain.
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[LouLawrence]

Not sure if anyone remembers 2008 like I do, but I was in the business of selling stuff to RVers. I nearly went broke as everyone parked their RV's for a year or more. Many sold. We own a diesel RV and fuel was running $4.75/gallon. In re-reading my post I suppose it's going to take $6.00/gallon in today's money to causes the same shutdown, but I believe we are only months away from that becoming reality. Gas will be a bit cheaper but likely still in the $5.00+ range.
Covid changed the World, but Covid is winding down and many of those who chose to run from the crowds to protect themselves will have to return to the office and the normal day to day 9-5 only to watch their RV's drop like stones in the driveway.

[Reisender]

goducks10 wrote:

LouLawrence wrote:
If we go back to $4.50-$5.50 gallon, watch how quickly the new RV sales dry up! It happened in '08 and it will happen again. Everyone will park their RV until the prices come down. No one buying, no one traveling and no one selling. As things ease up and drop under $4.00/gallon things will pick up but there will be a huge glut of RV's on dealers lots. If you are a buyer, you might find a great deal from a seller during those high gas prices times as many will be desperate to rid themselves of this liability.

569,000+/- RV's sold in 2021. Over 400,000 sold the prior few years. RV sales have been booming since 2010. There's millions of RV owners out there with the majority in the 35-65 range. Most sales are TT's and 5er's. TT's account for the most. It doesn't cost very much to hitch up and camp 50-75 miles from home. I suspect thats going to be the case.
Shorter trips longer stays.
Even with the so called Covid camper being disgruntled there's still 100's of 1000's of RV buyers that found they like camping and on top of that there's still the back years before Covid where sales were setting records almost yearly.
While there may be a decrease in RV owners using there RV's, there's still too many RV owners and to few CG's to think there will be empty CG's all over the country.
Wages are up and even with inflation and high fuel prices IMO there's enough disposable income to warrant camping for 2-3 days at a time like most 35-55 year old TT owners do on a weekend.

Bingo. Around here at 5:30 on a Friday night the roads are packed with RV’s headed for local campgrounds and lakes etc. By 7 they are setup and into their second beer. Sunday afternoon they are all coming home. Rinse and repeat next Friday. Higher fuel prices won’t affect them or campground occupancy much.

Jmho.

[goducks10]

LouLawrence wrote:
If we go back to $4.50-$5.50 gallon, watch how quickly the new RV sales dry up! It happened in '08 and it will happen again. Everyone will park their RV until the prices come down. No one buying, no one traveling and no one selling. As things ease up and drop under $4.00/gallon things will pick up but there will be a huge glut of RV's on dealers lots. If you are a buyer, you might find a great deal from a seller during those high gas prices times as many will be desperate to rid themselves of this liability.

569,000+/- RV's sold in 2021. Over 400,000 sold the prior few years. RV sales have been booming since 2010. There's millions of RV owners out there with the majority in the 35-65 range. Most sales are TT's and 5er's. TT's account for the most. It doesn't cost very much to hitch up and camp 50-75 miles from home. I suspect thats going to be the case.
Shorter trips longer stays.
Even with the so called Covid camper being disgruntled there's still 100's of 1000's of RV buyers that found they like camping and on top of that there's still the back years before Covid where sales were setting records almost yearly.
While there may be a decrease in RV owners using there RV's, there's still too many RV owners and to few CG's to think there will be empty CG's all over the country.
Wages are up and even with inflation and high fuel prices IMO there's enough disposable income to warrant camping for 2-3 days at a time like most 35-55 year old TT owners do on a weekend.

[cptqueeg]

There's lots of ways to reallocate the travel/vacation/recreation budget to allow for higher fuel prices.

One data point here is I was able to sell my 2021 Four Wheel Camper (pop-up TC) for more than I paid for it, in a matter of hours. Some segments still have very limited supplies.

[mdcamping]

LouLawrence wrote:
If we go back to $4.50-$5.50 gallon, watch how quickly the new RV sales dry up! It happened in '08 and it will happen again. Everyone will park their RV until the prices come down. No one buying, no one traveling and no one selling. As things ease up and drop under $4.00/gallon things will pick up but there will be a huge glut of RV's on dealers lots. If you are a buyer, you might find a great deal from a seller during those high gas prices times as many will be desperate to rid themselves of this liability.

I going to guess this might effect the sales of the largest Rv's first and work it's way down to the smaller one's based on how long and how high the prices go up. IMO

Mike

[LouLawrence]

If we go back to $4.50-$5.50 gallon, watch how quickly the new RV sales dry up! It happened in '08 and it will happen again. Everyone will park their RV until the prices come down. No one buying, no one traveling and no one selling. As things ease up and drop under $4.00/gallon things will pick up but there will be a huge glut of RV's on dealers lots. If you are a buyer, you might find a great deal from a seller during those high gas prices times as many will be desperate to rid themselves of this liability.

[austinjenna]

Sales will return to normal levels after everyone that purchased them finally realizes its not cheap, you need to make reservations 6 months in advance and you cannot just pull over anywhere and camp. Also there is some work involved in camping

[philh]

starting to see posts from people wondering how do you afford gas and rv stay fees. Also posts from people wondering how you can live the RV life. Now that Covid is officially over,

[Grit_dog]

markandkim wrote:
Totally ready to buy now, but prices are out of control and I refuse to pay them. So we will wait.

Smart man (or woman...nor sure if this is Mark or Kim, lol!).

For others like yourself, who can/will capitalize on others "wants" or stupidity.
Hold 'yer dollars for another year or so and you'll have pick 'o the litter for pretty cheep methinks.

[markandkim]

Totally ready to buy now, but prices are out of control and I refuse to pay them. So we will wait.

[goducks10]

I read recently a guy from Thor said that maybe by the end of 2022 dealers will be back to normal stock levels.
As propchef said there's a backlog of orders and while in some area's lots are fuller than others, there's other area's where lots are not up to normal levels.
Some brands are way behind on orders. I highly doubt you can walk on to every lot and find the model you want like you could pre Covid.

[propchef]

I don't think it's quite as gloomy as all that, but I do think the bubble has burst, or at least is leaking a little.

The tech bubble was an overvaluation issue with virtual "assets"

08/09 was the housing bubble

What we're seeing is a supply and demand issue for the most part(the rest being supply chain issues). Demand, driven by a pandemic went up at the same time that the ability to manufacture said units went down, adding to the backup.

I think what we'll see this year is again, driven by supply and demand. Supply is catching up and demand, while strong, seems to be level. Maybe it's the time of year, who knows. Regardless, by next fall I think inventory levels will have mostly recovered for new units and that will push down used prices.

[trucker11]

RV sales have tanked, it will take some time to shake out and for prices to drop. Runaway inflation, recessions, and sky high energy prices have a huge effect on RV sales. The chart below is wholesale shipments, retail sales numbers lag far behind.

Early 90's recession which was relatively mild overall resulted in a drop of @ 25%.

1999/2000 tech bubble caused a drop of @ 20%.

Recession of 08/09 a drop of 60% by 2009.

My prediction is you will see a drop by 2023 of something close to the aftermath of the 08/09 recession.

600,000 (2021) reduced by 60%, shipments and sales in the 250,000 to 300,000 range. The RV Industry's reputation for producing absolute garbage will help matters none either. At the current time (and prices) one has to be a complete fool to buy one of these pieces of junk.

[ajriding]

You might need to look at the individual manufacturers to see if they have placed artificial demands on their employees which caused a reduction in their workforce which caused their production to halt. Requiring your employee to be a gunnies pig and take experimental injections in order to come to work would be one cause of a slow workforce. The reasons can be obvious. Blaming slow imports might be a reason too, but if the lots are full of cheaply-made RVs then someone is getting parts to build them.
SInce there are RV lots full of RVs I would assume there is no shortage of RVs in general, only perhaps a shortage of a particular manufacturers models due to self-inflicted harm to their bottom line.
It is hard to take this question seriously when RV lots are full. Either people are not buying, or the problem does not exist.
Mask are useless and the vax makes you more vulnerable to any illness, esp the current one that is about gone by now.. Yes, tell your employees they take deadly drugs and wear health-harming petri towels on their faces all day in order to work and you get a weak work-force, more sick days, retiring early employees, no-shows, hospitalized workers who die from remdesivire or ventilators etc, then that company will of course have issues.
We are in this mess because we allowed it to happen, we did it, the politicians only suggested it to us.